Economist E. J. Antoni-Green Housing Mandates Add Tens of Thousands to Costs Paid by Renters-Other Taxpayers While Taking 90 Years to Achieve Breakeven – Facts-MHVille Analysis; plus MHMarkets


“Failed public policies are creating a two-tiered society in America, where an entire generation of Americans likely won’t ever be able to afford their own homes,” says the subheading of the article posted below by economist E.J. Antoni on sobering claims about the role green housing mandates are playing in the U.S. housing scene.  According to another new report on News Nation dated 5.9.2024, under the headline of Americans: It’s the worst time ever to buy a home” it said the following. “Americans are feeling historically bad about the housing market, and most expect prices to keep rising over the next year. Just 21% of people say it’s a good time to buy a home, tied for the lowest level on record, according to a new Gallup survey.” That same News Nation report said: “Most of those surveyed — nearly 70% — expect prices in their area to go up over the next year, Gallup found. That’s a higher share than a year ago when roughly 56% felt the same. The findings come as more Americans brace for interest rates to stay higher for longer following several hot inflation reports and indications from the Federal Reserve. After cooling to 6.6% in January, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage hit 7.2% last week, the highest level in five monthsNearly 40% of homeowners say they couldn’t afford their home today Nowadays, buyers need to make $114,000 a year to afford the typical U.S. home, according to a recent Redfin report. In higher cost-of-living areas like San Francisco and San Jose, California, households need to bring in almost $400,000 to afford a home.” What’s bad for the conventional housing market could be good for the manufactured housing market, but that could realistically comes with several significant “ifs.” More on that in Part II of this report.

From Antoni’s article in Part I consider, these pull quotes.

  • “Instead of a homebuyer’s bearing the full freight of these [Biden-era] green energy mandates, some of the cost will be passed on to taxpayers, including renters.”
  • Because the break-even point in paying for those supposedly energy saving mandates is so long: “So if a young couple buys one of these new green energy homes and has a child one year later, the regulatory costs still won’t have paid for themselves in that child’s lifetime, let alone the life of the couple who bought the home.”

Recall that the New York Times reported on a survey that said that the typical American was willing to pay only about $10 more per month to ‘go green.’ If millions of Americans think that they will be paying more their entire lives for a house that will never recoup the supposed ‘energy savings,’ how would that impact renters, new or prospective housing buyers that are already struggling?

What follows has housing policy, political, and several potential manufactured housing ramifications. See that in Part II.


Part I – Per the Daily Signal and Provided to MHProNews


‘Green’ Housing Mandates Push Americans Further Into the Red

EJ Antoni @RealEJAntoni / May 09, 2024

Failed public policies are creating a two-tiered society in America, where an entire generation of Americans likely won’t ever be able to afford their own homes. And President Biden just made things worse. …

Home prices across the nation are back up near a record high. That makes this a particularly bad time for the Biden administration to have rolled out its new “green” energy mandates, which will add $31,000 to the cost of a new home.

The mandates are being pushed through the Department of Housing and Urban Development and while they technically won’t apply to all homes, all homebuilders will effectively be forced to comply with them.

The Biden administration doesn’t deny this higher upfront cost. It simply claims it’ll pay for itself via lower energy bills. Unfortunately, the break-even point is 90 years.

So if a young couple buys one of these new green energy homes and has a child one year later, the regulatory costs still won’t have paid for themselves in that child’s lifetime, let alone the life of the couple who bought the home.

HUD argues that homebuilders will be able to get tax credits via the Inflation Reduction Act to offset some of these costs, with those savings hopefully passed along to homebuyers.

However, this is not a real reduction in costs; it’s merely passing the buck to taxpayers.

Instead of a homebuyer’s bearing the full freight of these green energy mandates, some of the cost will be passed on to taxpayers, including renters.

This is just the latest example of how failed public policies are creating a two-tiered society in America, where an entire generation of Americans will likely never be able to afford their own homes.

Amid a cost-of-living crisis, renters today are paying more than ever in housing costs, with half of them reporting difficulty paying their rent on time. Over 20% said they did at least one of the following to stay current on rent: skipped meals, worked extra hours, sold personal belongings.

With the average monthly rent for a home up 50% in just four years and the cost of other necessities like food, clothing, and energy also skyrocketing, many Americans have nothing left to save at the end of the month. Small wonder the average savings rate today is less than half what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.

That means many renters can never afford to save for a down payment, so they’re stuck renting forever.

Even those who manage to scrimp and save for their jumbo-size down payment still may not be able to afford the monthly mortgage payment, which has doubled since January 2021. Despite record-high rental prices, owning a home has never been so expensive relative to rents.

The fallout from people being unable to afford a home goes far beyond dollars and cents. Young people delay marriage and having children. A two-tiered society springs up between the “haves,” who were lucky enough to buy a home at the right time, and the “have nots,” who were too late. Americans become increasingly divided along racial lines. People lose hope.

These new green energy mandates will worsen conditions in the frozen housing market for the same reason that other failed public policy caused the mess in the first place: These energy mandates increase prices.

Runaway government spending caused 40-year-high inflation that drove up prices everywhere, including for housing. Inflation also necessitated higher interest rates, which have made it impossible for many people to sell their homes since that would mean losing a 2%-3% mortgage in exchange for a 7%-8% one.

Inflation has also driven construction costs to record highs, and those costs are passed to homebuyers in the form of higher prices. Since most people cannot afford a home at these higher prices, homebuilders are producing fewer houses.

Thus, the supply of new and existing homes has been severely curtailed. The growth in apartment buildings will likely fall sharply and soon, too. Forward-looking indicators such as building permits are declining; the number of job openings in construction fell in March by the biggest drop on record. Less construction of apartments will mean even more upward pressure on rent prices.

Americans need relief, not regulation, in their struggle to find affordable housing.

 Originally published by Fox News. ##

Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary 

1) Without referencing the work of HUD Policy and Development Research (PD&R) Pamela Blumenthal and Regina Gray, Antoni’s remarks obliquely make some tangentially similar points about regulatory barriers to more housing. In this instance that Antoni is reporting on, it is specifically with respect to “greener” housing with the claim of more potential energy savings. Gray’s report, in the second linked article below, is manufactured housing specific, but both articles shed important light on the dynamics of regulations as barriers to more housing and the role that manufactured homes could play in solving the issues. While every article that we publish serves a broad purpose that relates to manufactured housing in direct and/or indirect ways, the two below are arguably so significant, they should be required reading for thousands of manufactured housing pros. They should also be required reading for anyone that is advocating for more affordable housing.




2) The opportunities to build potentially millions of new HUD Code manufactured homes is implied by Cavco Industries (CVCO) in their investor relations (IR) pitch deck page shown below.


There is an evidence-based case to be made that Cavco has ironically helped provide the ammo for antitrust pros to go after their firm and several others associated with the Manufactured Housing Institute. Their reasons to invest are also apparent proof of their own failures to successfully tap into the very opportunities that they illustrated with these factually supported claims. The base image above is from the Cavco Industries (CVCO) November 2023 Investor Relations ‘pitch deck’ or IR presentation. MHProNews periodically uses a satirical logo based on the MHI logo that proclaims: “Proud Member of Machiavellian Housing Institute” (i.e.: Manufactured Housing Institute or MHI) with its modified MHI tag line: “The National Association Serving Consolidators of the Manufactured Housing Industry.” Cavco Industries is indeed a “proud” MHI member. Call out boxes and arrows are added by MHProNews as part of this fact check and analysis. See detailed report and context here:


3) It is curious, if not troubling, that there is such a wide range of claims about how many millions of housing units are needed in the U.S.  We live in a so-called information age. State and federal agencies, among others, gather data. Why is it that some say there is less than 2 million housing units needed in the U.S, while others say (as Cavco did above) that it is more like 6 million units needed (which may be a conservative estimate). Others say it could be 10 million units needed or more.  Common sense alone should tell us that when some 8 million younger adults moved back in with ‘mom and dad’ in a single year, that alone should have freed up x million housing units. But apparently, population growth, illegal and legal immigration, and other factors yield what the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) said “The U.S. has a shortage of more than 7.3 million rental homes affordable and available to extremely low income renter households.” One point is that despite any confusion, there is an evidence-based case that could be made that Cavco is correct, it could be 6 million or more new affordable housing units that are needed.

4) But if that is so, then why did manufactured housing suffer from a 15-month downturn starting in 2022 and through essentially all of 2023? According to the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR), it wasn’t until January 2024 that the national manufactured home production data reflected the start of a recovery. But the current levels of manufactured home shipments are still well below what they were just a few years ago.




5) Let’s note that when mentioning Cavco’s IR pitch, that should not be misunderstood as merely aiming at that higher profile MHI member. It is useful for several reasons, one, because they said it. Two, because William “Bill” Boor is currently MHI’s chairman. Three, as MHI’s vice chair and then self-described soon-to-be-chairman Boor’s remarks to Congress last July (2023), Boor himself said that what’s blunting the industry in large part is a failure by HUD to properly enforce what is often called the “enhanced preemption” provision of the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000. So, Boor was contradicting some of his own IR pitchbook claims. See below.


Base image is from the Cavco Industries November 2023 Investor Relations ‘pitch deck’ or presentation. Satirical “Proud Member of Machiavellian Housing Institute” (i.e.: Manufactured Housing Institute or MHI) with its modified MHI tag line: “The National Association Serving Consolidators of the Manufactured Housing Industry” was added by MHProNews, but Cavco Industries is a “proud” MHI member. Call out boxes and arrows are added by MHProNews as part of this fact check and analysis.


William “Bill” Boor, Cavco Industries (CVCO) CEO told Congress the industry is at a critical crossroads due to regulatory barriers and market forces. Why are the causes and possible cures to that ‘crossroads’ underreported and often misunderstood? Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report and others on MHProNews can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. For example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection, you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.


6) There are an array of sources, inside or beyond manufactured housing, that point to the absolute need for millions of more new manufactured homes. That being the case, and given that Boor and others at MHI are well aware of existing federal laws that could boost manufactured home production if they were only fully, consistently, swiftly and robustly enforced, then why is the industry operating at a lower level in 2023 than it did in 2017? Why is the manufactured housing production in 2023 only about 23.9 percent of the total production in 1998, when the U.S. population was smaller and before the MHIA and enhanced preemption became federal law? Why has MHI allowed over two decades to elapse without filing suit to enforce the MHIA and enhanced preemption?


7) The answers are increasingly apparent and sobering. MHI leaders often posture support for getting good existing federal laws enforced, but meanwhile MHI leaders have actually ‘partnered; with numbers of conventional housing trade groups that are the competitors of HUD Code manufactured housing. These are not conspiracy theories, they are the facts hiding in plain sight. MHI has said so themselves.


8) While other than MHARR, MHProNews, and MHLivingNews there seems to be too little or no focus in MHVille trade media on the genesis of the DOE energy rule and how that too may be fostering consolidation and reduction in output, the history of that energy rule matters.


9) Pivoting back to what News Nation said about a recent Gallup survey on housing on 5.9.2024: “Despite regional cost differences, Gallup’s survey found the majority of Americans across the Midwest (66%), East (68%), South (68%) and West (70%) all expect prices in their area to go up in the coming year. Rural (63%), city (69%) and suburban (70%) residents were similarly pessimistic.”

Then note this particular statement, also from News Nation (emphasis added by MHProNews): “Housing costs now rank second behind only inflation as the most important financial problem facing American families, according to Gallup. Adults under 50 were especially likely to say housing costs were their top concern.”

Manufactured housing is the obvious answer. But on top of external roadblocks, there appears to be internal roadblocks too.


ManufacturedHousingInstituteHitByAntitrustAllegationsInOpEd_MHI-AttorneyDavidGochMollyBoyleAskedRespondEvidenceBasedConcernsCopilot-AiFac CheckRefersToMHIsOrwellianApproachMHProNews
When MHI leaders and outside attorneys are asked by MHProNews to respond to remarks like the one posted above, they routinely remain silent. A recent example of MHI failing to respond to a standing invitation to weigh in, supplemented by an almost business-daily publicly announced remark to that effect, is a specific contact with respect to the timely and demonstrably relevant topics linked here. MHI launched the use of that new logo in 2022 when manufactured home production was in the early phase of what became a sharp 15-month long production downturn. Meaning, MHI’s use of such slogans are similar to Soviet-style or Orwellian propaganda slogans.


10) Perhaps no one else in MHVille trade media – including MHI linked trade associations, bloggers, and publications – can authentically claim to come close to the level of documentation and reporting on such topics as MHProNews and MHLivingNews. While clearly problematic for tens of millions of Americans, each of these challenges could spell the potential for a boom in production, retail, dramatically increased occupancy  in land-lease manufactured home community (MHC) living and so on. As conventional housing becomes more unaffordable and unattainable, manufactured housing becomes the ever more preeminent option for affordable living.  Yet, vexingly, MHI – which rightly or wrongly claims that they represent the interests of “all segments” of the manufactured housing industry have somehow managed to avoid translating these favorable-to-manufactured housing producers and sellers’ facts and figures, and turned it into a 15-month downturn, followed by a modest instead of robust recovery? It is an almost inconceivable level of incompetence necessary to pull that off. MHProNews pressed MHI leaders over a year ago to address what was said to be overstocking issues coupled with higher interest rates in a fashion that similarly reflected the industry’s history in, for example, the 1980s. Interest rates on so-called adjustable-rate mortgages (or ARM loans) hit 21 percent. Yet production then, with often less visually impressive products, were more than double the results the industry is witnessing today. Why is it that so, at less than half that financing costs now than then?



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The research by senior economist at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve James “Jim” Schmitz Jr., his colleagues, the legal research by Samuel “Sam” Strommen at Knudson Law, and a grasp of what Warren Buffett, Kevin Clayton, and Tom Hodges have called “the Moat” – among others insights – are useful in understanding the decline of HUD Code manufactured housing. Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report and others on MHProNews can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. For example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts. See the Rise and Fall of HUD Code Manufactured Housing. and the lessons learned from the California ADU phenomenal growth.




11) ‘Pardon me,’ but this is a stunning lack of performance by MHI leaders.

  • It would be like a baseball team that can’t drive in home runs when half of their opponents walk off the field.
  • Or it would be like a football team whose offense that can’t wrack up record points when the only defenders left are on the injured reserve.

Conventional housing is increasingly not affordable.

Yet, not only is MHI unable or unwilling to take the obvious steps necessary, they have also shockingly abandoned the terminology “affordable” housing for the mushy and less appealing phrase “attainable” housing, as MHARR’s President and CEO, Mark Weiss, J.D. recently noted in his May 2024 Issues and Perspectives.

It seems that MHI is doing all that it can to demonstrate what MHProNews/MHLivingNews have made the evidence-based case for years. Namely, that several (not all) MHI corporate leaders have been using moat tactics to drive smaller firms from the industry in part by using the method described by longtime Warren Buffett ally, William “Bill” Gates III. Note that Gates’ led Microsoft was infamously taken to court for antitrust violations.


This statement is revealing. A parasite feeds on its host. Bill Gates admits he thought ill of Warren Buffett. But they got together on numerous business, nonprofit, and political levels. Clearly, whatever held Gates back he overcame. What he didn’t claim in this quote is that Buffett changed. There is an inference that Gates learned from Buffett and embraced that parasitic business model.
What this judge said about Gates, couldn’t it be applied as well to Warren Buffett and other billionaires and corporate elites?


RobertFKennedyJrPicQuoteAtBestGatesCampaignScarfUplandFeudalismInVogueAtWorstBuyingSpreeHarbingerAlarmingControlFoodSupplyNapoleonicComplexMHProNewsLogo note: quoting Robert F. Kennedy Jr., J.D., is not meant to endorse all of his remarks or stances. That said, Kennedy has led an insurgent campaign against Joe Biden and the Democratic Party that he spent his entire life in. However much someone likes or dislikes Kennedy and some of his stances, he nevertheless has made numerous revealing remarks. His point, for instance, about rising feudalism and fascism in the U.S. resonates with numbers across the left-right divide, even though he has said and repeated that he believes that Joe Biden (D) is a bigger threat to America then Donald Trump (R).


12) It isn’t just MHProNews, MHLivingNews, or MHARR that has hammered away at apparent flaws in MHI and several of their corporate and senior staff leadership.  During earnings calls, at least two MHI linked producers have been quizzed about ‘softness’ and ‘weakness’ in manufactured housing industry performance.


AnalystGregPalmtoCavcoWhy is Manufactured HomeIndustry ProductionSo WeakParadox DevelopsLower Expectations MoreSinglesIn Q1-2023CavcoIndustriesQrtly FactsTrendsMHVilleAnalysisMHProNews




13) Programming notice. An update has been requested and is planned for 5.10.2024 on the report linked here.  It involves significant claims that came in belatedly to MHProNews, which nevertheless merit exposure. Watch for it. In the meantime, see several AI boosted reports like those linked herein and below.


“…I’ve indicated for some time, we have a place to put challenge in our industry, particularly in larger metropolitan areas like Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta, Denver. And that difficulty is not being remedied, at least not currently.” Hodgson’s Legacy Housing was an MHI member at the time that comment was made during an earnings call, and per an available MHI’s member directory, still is.


Part III – Our Daily Business News on MHProNews stock market recap which features our business-daily at-a-glance update of over 2 dozen manufactured housing industry stocks.

This segment of the Daily Business News on MHProNews is the recap of yesterday evening’s market report, so that investors can see at glance the type of topics may have influenced other investors. Thus, our format includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines.

The macro market moves graphics below provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities. Meaning, you can see ‘at a glance’ how manufactured housing connected firms do compared to other segments of the broader equities market.

In minutes a day readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that may be impacting manufactured housing connected investing.


Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – 5.9.2024

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In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” – Warren Buffett. That begs a key question. Why don’t more people LOOK at the rearview mirror more so they can learn more about the patterns that influence what’s ahead? Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. For example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection, you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.



Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax – 5.9.2024

  • Netanyahu Answers Biden: Israel ‘Will Stand Alone’ If Weapons Are Withheld
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  • Apple’s ‘Disturbing’ iPad Ad of Destruction Strikes Nerve
  • A newly released ad promoting Apple’s new iPad Pro has struck quite a nerve online.The ad, which was released by the tech giant Tuesday, shows a hydraulic press crushing just about every creative instrument artists and consumers have used over the years – from a piano and…… [Full Story]
  • Trump Vows to Oil Execs He Will Target EVs, LNG Exports
  • Colleges Prioritize Unrest Over Students, Education
  • BP Looking to Buy Tesla’s US Supercharger Sites
  • T-Mobile, Verizon in Talks to Buy Parts of US Cellular
  • More Finance
  • Health
  • 9 in 10 US Adults at High Risk for Heart Disease
  • Nine of 10 American adults are in the early, middle or late stages of a syndrome that leads to heart disease, a new report finds, and almost 10% have the disease already. “Poor cardiovascular, kidney, and metabolic health is widespread among the U.S. population,” concludes a…… [Full Story]
  • Choose These Grains to Lower Cholesterol
  • Dogs Entering US Must Be 6 Months Old, Microchipped
  • 1 in 4 With Type 1 Diabetes Have an Eating Disorder
  • Stomach-Zap Procedure Lowers Appetite for Weight Loss

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Notice: MHProNews invites the firms named in these reports to respond to any concerns about possibly inaccurate information via email that identifies the concern and offers evidence that sheds a different light on the topic discussed. That said, until 5.9.2024, neither MHI nor most MHI publicly traded ‘insider brands’ have done so. They’ve been repeatedly invited to do so, including but not limited to an outreach on Dec 7, 2o23 and Feb 25, 2024.


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