The Institute for Building Technology & Safety (IBTS) is contracted by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to gather the data on production and shipments by state for HUD Code manufactured homes. So IBTS’ data is essentially HUD’s official data. Additionally, information obtained by MHProNews from the U.S. Census Bureau will provide a wealth of information useful for marketing, investing, public policy and advocacy purposes. These item will then be accompanied by a focused MHProNews analysis and commentary.
1). Official HUD Code Manufactured Home Production/Shipments Data for 10.1 to 10.31.2022.
MHProNews note: SW means “single wide” or more aptly, ‘single section’ manufactured home. MW means “multi-wide” or more aptly a multsectional manufactured home.
Institute for Building Technology & Safety
Shipments and Production Summary Report 10/01/2022 – 10/31/2022
| Shipments | ||||
| State | SW | MW | Total | Floors |
| Dest. Pending | 27 | 23 | 50 | 73 |
| Alabama | 212 | 171 | 383 | 556 |
| Alaska | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Arizona | 51 | 197 | 248 | 448 |
| Arkansas | 50 | 63 | 113 | 176 |
| California | 59 | 281 | 340 | 632 |
| Colorado | 56 | 24 | 80 | 104 |
| Connecticut | 11 | 7 | 18 | 25 |
| Delaware | 17 | 22 | 39 | 62 |
| District of Columbia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | 292 | 511 | 803 | 1,325 |
| Georgia | 85 | 159 | 244 | 403 |
| Hawaii | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Idaho | 13 | 34 | 47 | 82 |
| Illinois | 82 | 35 | 117 | 152 |
| Indiana | 145 | 69 | 214 | 283 |
| Iowa | 80 | 16 | 96 | 112 |
| Kansas | 69 | 7 | 76 | 83 |
| Kentucky | 101 | 177 | 278 | 455 |
| Louisiana | 152 | 97 | 249 | 346 |
| Maine | 51 | 52 | 103 | 155 |
| Maryland | 4 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| Massachusetts | 5 | 13 | 18 | 31 |
| Michigan | 246 | 219 | 465 | 684 |
| Minnesota | 42 | 29 | 71 | 100 |
| Mississippi | 116 | 159 | 275 | 407 |
| Missouri | 76 | 53 | 129 | 182 |
| Montana | 12 | 32 | 44 | 77 |
| Nebraska | 20 | 8 | 28 | 36 |
| Nevada | 5 | 46 | 51 | 100 |
| New Hampshire | 20 | 26 | 46 | 72 |
| New Jersey | 14 | 21 | 35 | 56 |
| New Mexico | 84 | 87 | 171 | 258 |
| New York | 76 | 110 | 186 | 296 |
| North Carolina | 192 | 190 | 382 | 572 |
| North Dakota | 21 | 10 | 31 | 41 |
| Ohio | 182 | 87 | 269 | 356 |
| Oklahoma | 120 | 96 | 216 | 312 |
| Oregon | 16 | 111 | 127 | 244 |
| Pennsylvania | 101 | 111 | 212 | 323 |
| Rhode Island | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 114 | 215 | 329 | 549 |
| South Dakota | 4 | 20 | 24 | 44 |
| Tennessee | 78 | 164 | 242 | 407 |
| Texas | 662 | 742 | 1,404 | 2,158 |
| Utah | 3 | 24 | 27 | 51 |
| Vermont | 8 | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| Virginia | 49 | 48 | 97 | 145 |
| Washington | 15 | 100 | 115 | 221 |
| West Virginia | 20 | 43 | 63 | 106 |
| Wisconsin | 55 | 34 | 89 | 123 |
| Wyoming | 10 | 5 | 15 | 20 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Puerto Rico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 3,931 | 4,763 | 8,694 | 13,493 |
| Production | ||||
| State | SW | MW | Total | Floors |
| States Shown(*) | 332 | 298 | 630 | 928 |
| Alabama | 509 | 648 | 1,157 | 1,781 |
| *Alaska | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 38 | 205 | 243 | 452 |
| *Arkansas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| California | 50 | 260 | 310 | 577 |
| *Colorado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Connecticut | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Delaware | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *District of Columbia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | 41 | 291 | 332 | 630 |
| Georgia | 225 | 303 | 528 | 835 |
| *Hawaii | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Idaho | 22 | 107 | 129 | 244 |
| *Illinois | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | 661 | 342 | 1,003 | 1,345 |
| *Iowa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Kansas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Kentucky | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Louisiana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Maine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Maryland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Massachusetts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Michigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 45 | 61 | 106 | 167 |
| *Mississippi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Missouri | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Montana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Nebraska | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Nevada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *New Hampshire | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *New Jersey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *New Mexico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *New York | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 181 | 208 | 389 | 602 |
| *North Dakota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Ohio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Oklahoma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oregon | 33 | 207 | 240 | 459 |
| Pennsylvania | 266 | 342 | 608 | 951 |
| *Rhode Island | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *South Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *South Dakota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 554 | 655 | 1,209 | 1,865 |
| Texas | 974 | 836 | 1,810 | 2,657 |
| *Utah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Vermont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Washington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *West Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Wisconsin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Wyoming | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Puerto Rico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 3,931 | 4,763 | 8,694 | 13,493 |
| THE ABOVE STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED AS A MONTHLY | |||||||||
| SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE. REPRODUCTION IN PART OR | |||||||||
| IN TOTAL MUST CARRY AN ATTRIBUTION TO IBTS, INC.
(*) THESE STATES HAVE FEWER THAN THREE PLANTS. FIGURES ARE AGGREGATED ON FIRST LINE ABOVE TOTALS TO PROTECT PROPRIETARY INFORMATION.
Ashok K Goswami, PE, COO, 45207 Research Place, Ashburn, VA |
|||||||||
II. Information obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau yields the following data set. After these facts, a Census Bureau “visualization” (graphic) that indicates at a glance the general volume of manufactured homes shipped into a given state.
| Cost & Size Comparisons: |
| New Manufactured Homes and New Single-Family Site-Built Homes |
| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
| New Manufactured Homes | ||||||
| All1 | ||||||
| Avg. Sales Price | $ 108,100 | $ 87,000 | $ 81,900 | $ 78,500 | $ 71,900 | $ 70,600 |
| Avg. Square Feet | 1,497 | 1,471 | 1,448 | 1,438 | 1,426 | 1,446 |
| Avg. Cost per Sq. Ft. | $ 72.21 | $ 59.14 | $ 56.56 | $ 54.59 | $ 50.42 | $ 48.82 |
| Single | ||||||
| Avg. Sales Price | $ 72,600 | $ 57,300 | $ 53,200 | $ 52,400 | $ 48,300 | $ 46,700 |
| Avg. Square Feet | 1,084 | 1,085 | 1,072 | 1,072 | 1,087 | 1,075 |
| Avg. Cost per Sq. Ft. | $ 66.97 | $ 52.81 | $ 49.63 | $ 48.88 | $ 44.43 | $ 43.44 |
| Double | ||||||
| Avg. Sales Price | $ 132,000 | $ 108,500 | $ 104,000 | $ 99,500 | $ 92,800 | $ 89,500 |
| Avg. Square Feet | 1,794 | 1,760 | 1,747 | 1,747 | 1,733 | 1,746 |
| Avg. Cost per Sq. Ft. | $ 73.58 | $ 61.65 | $ 59.53 | $ 51.26 | $ 53.55 | $ 51.26 |
| Housing Starts vs. MH Shipments | ||||||
| (Thousands of Units) | ||||||
| New Single Family | ||||||
| Housing Starts | 1,127 | 991 | 888 | 876 | 849 | 782 |
| Percent of Total | 91% | 91% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 91% |
| Manufactured Home Shipments | ||||||
| Shipped | 106 | 94 | 95 | 97 | 93 | 81 |
| Percent of Total | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
| Total | 1,233 | 1,085 | 983 | 973 | 942 | 863 |
| New Single-Family | ||||||
| Site-Built Homes Sold | ||||||
| (Home and Land Sold as Package) | ||||||
| Avg. Sales Price | $ 464,200 | $ 391,900 | $ 383,900 | $ 385,000 | $ 384,900 | $ 360,900 |
| Derived Average Land Price | $ 98,296 | $ 83,303 | $ 84,485 | $ 87,253 | $ 91,173 | $ 82,491 |
| Price of Structure | ||||||
| Avg. Square Feet | 2,544 | 2,527 | 2,518 | 2,602 | 2,645 | 2,650 |
| Avg. Price per Sq Ft. (excl. land) | $ 143.83 | $ 122.12 | $ 118.91 | $ 114.43 | $ 111.05 | $ 105.06 |
| Manufactured Home Shipments | ||||||
| Total | 105,772 | 94,390 | 94,615 | 96,555 | 92,902 | 81,136 |
| Single-Section | 44,755 | 42,578 | 42,930 | 44,979 | 46,305 | 38,944 |
| Multi-Section | 61,017 | 51,812 | 51,685 | 51,576 | 46,597 | 42,192 |
| New Manufactured Homes Placed | ||||||
| (For Residential Use) | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
| Located in Communities | 51% | 27% | 31% | 37% | 32% | 34% |
| Located on Private Property | 49% | 73% | 69% | 63% | 68% | 66% |
| Titled as Personal Property | 77% | 78% | 76% | 77% | 76% | 77% |
| Titled as Real Estate | 19% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| 1 Includes manufactured homes with more than two sections. | ||||||||||
| Note: The Census Bureau has reviewed this data product for unauthorized disclosure of confidential information and has approved the disclosure avoidance practices applied. | ||||||||||
| (Approval ID: CBDRB-FY22-278) the disclosure avoidance practices applied. | ||||||||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Survey of Construction, https://www.census.gov/construction/chars/; https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/xls/starts_cust.xls. | ||||||||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Manufactured Housing Survey. | ||||||||||
Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis in Brief
What too few industry professionals and numbers of association have paid public (published) attention to is the dramatic upswing in manufactured home shipments in 2021 into land-lease manufactured home communities. See the highlighted datapoint from the Census Bureau, shown above as ranking at 51 percent.
- A) Depending on the community operator involved, some are buying homes for mainly rental property purposes.
- B) Other community owner/operators are more apt to be buying manufactured homes to fill a site where the home has/would be sold to a future manufactured homeowner.
- C) Publicly traded examples of the above are UMH Properties and Manufactured Housing Properties for scenario A, and Equity LifeStyle Properties for B.
- D) Each of those named publicly traded firms are members of the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), which has arguably aptly earned the nickname the Monopolistic Housing Institute (MHI) because they seem to be dominated by consolidators of the various sectors of the manufactured housing industry. For evidence of that claim, a look at the investor pitch decks for various MHI member firms often makes that point in a subtle to bold manner. See Flagship Communities as an example. Earnings calls by publicly traded firms also reveals remarks that point to that assertion.
But there are numerous questions that this surge in shipments into land lease communities begs for questions and candid answers. For instance, were land lease communities often prioritized over street retailers in 2021? When earnings calls and other remarks/indicators reflect that publicly traded producers of manufactured homes have said that there is a high demand from communities which may buy similar homes in larger quantities that could allow for a ‘run’ of a specific floorplan, there are several possible motivations for producers to possibly unjustly favor a larger customer over a smaller one. But to the degree that may have occurred, such behavior has consequences too.
For instance, retail customers who are going onto private property may get put off for weeks or months longer than would otherwise be the case. Such retail clients are likely to have increased frustration and thus higher levels of dissatisfaction with sellers, i.e.: street retailers. While some of that may blow back on the factory supplying an independent, the brunt could fall on the retailer (a.k.a. ‘dealer’). That retail’s profits are being delayed. Their floorplan limits may get stretched. Some retailers in frustration may sell out or close up and retire.
Because publicly traded firms, and other HUD Code manufactured home producers, often have their own retail arms (vertical integration that parallels serving independent retailers), the resale value of a retail center may be diminished. Clayton Homes has for some time offered certain independents a program that essentially converted an independent into a corporate owned center. In those cases, the former independent retailer turned-Clayton sales center could, per Clayton’s pitch, reduce their risk while still offering their ‘general manager’ (the former store owner) opportunities to make a good income with less personal financial risk.
This quilt work of various interests, pressures, and methodologies that are operating in MHVille all lead to pressure that reduces the number of independent sellers of HUD Code manufactured housing. While the ‘slack’ may be picked up – for now – by communities, as communities move toward capacity in their occupancy, a production ‘wall’ may be hit in the foreseeable future. MHProNews raised that concern at the last MHI meeting attended in 2017. It is increasingly visible in the emerging data.
To the extent that investors in publicly traded companies are not being told about such risks of an approaching downturn, public firms are arguably shortchanging investors in potentially multiple ways. A kind of reverse example of that is Legacy Housing, which has openly warned investors and those who read/listen to their statements that a ‘place to put’ challenge is upon the industry. Legacy Housing has responded to that place to put challenge by developing their own properties where Legacy Housing products can be placed for sale and/or other marketing/financial opportunities, such as possible leasing.
Winners and losers inevitably emerge from this pattern. To the extent that MHI staff and board leaders could help the industry navigate these issues, but do not do so, they are increasing their respective risks for failing to fulfill their fiduciary responsibilities to all members. But because this is subtle and there are numbers of distractions, independents may or may not completely grasp the risk factors that are growing. Meanwhile, more producing companies have embraced some level of vertical integration – i.e.: their own company owned sales centers – that may parallel the sales made by independents.
The Census Bureau data posted above clearly shows that manufactured home production is only operating at about 9 to 10 percent of single-family housing starts in recent years. But at various times in the past, manufactured housing achieved far higher levels of new housing starts in market share. See figure 2 below, produced by the National Association of Realtors Scholastica “Gay” Cororaton, CBE.
The bottom lines? There are candidly numbers of possible takeaways. They are explored in reports linked herein.
But what is certain is that the manufactured housing industry is operating at far below its actual potential to meet the needs of the growing affordable housing crisis. When some 9 million younger individuals moved back into their parents’ home in 2022 alone, due in large part to a lack of affordable housing, that spells both problems and opportunities.
Unfortunately, at this point, there is little indication that MHI intends to do its part to maximize those opportunities. Nor are there clear signals by some of their dominating brands that they want to see the commonsense changes to be made which might alleviate the risks described while potentially maximizing rewards. That implies that risks for investors, smaller companies, and potentially MHI itself are all rising. See the various linked reports to learn more.
Daily Business News on MHProNews Markets Segment
The modifications of our prior Daily Business News on MHProNews format of the recap of yesterday evening’s market report are provided below. It still includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines. The macro market moves graphics will provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities.
In minutes a day readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that are impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. For instance: click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the ‘x out’ (close window) escape or back key to return.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 12.13.2022
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====================================
- NOTE 1: The 3rd chart above includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry finance lender
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the equities named above follow.
2022 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
· For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
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That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
