Skyline Champion (SKY) Plunges Nearly 20 Percent, Are Fundamentals Sound? What are Housing Headlines Behind SKY’s Fall? Plus, Sunday Weekly Manufactured Home Headline Recap & Analysis

SkylineChampionSKYplungesNearly20PercentAreFundamentalsSoundWhatAreHousingHeadlinesBehindSKYsFallPlusSundayWeeklyManufacturedHomeHeadlineRecapAnalysisMHProNews

Cutting to the chase, the fundamentals of manufactured housing are sound. The fundamentals of most manufactured home producers are sound too, including Skyline Champion (SKY).  The need for affordable housing has rarely, if ever, been greater in the U.S.A. Nevertheless, Skyline Champion took a sharp slide on Thursday and Friday.

 

Earlier this year, Seeking Alpha cautioned their readers against Skyline Champion. The following are pull quotes from that report.

Skyline Champion: A Risky Way To Play Housing

Jan. 04, 2022 11:12 AM ET Skyline Champion Corporation (SKY)

Summary

  • Skyline Champion has done well to grow its business in recent years, with particularly strong growth occurring this year.
  • If growth in the market continues, the company could be a solid prospect, but it is more expensive than many of its peers.
  • Add in the downside risk if the market should slow down and it’s just not a prime prospect to consider at this time. … ##

 

That snapshot runs counter to what the headlines below the market summary graphic from Yahoo Finance that follows indicates. But note that even Yahoo’s prognosis states that Skyline Champion’s there is short, medium, and longer term downward pressures on SKY’s stock price. That graphic is an example of how one side of their data (see below), which claims that SKY’s stock is still undervalued, is apparently in contradiction with the other side of their own charts, which says  that the short, medium and longterm outlook is bearish. At least superficially, it doesn’t seem logical that both could be true. Zack’s says SKY is a “strong buy.”

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Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.

MHProNews is not offering a specific statement on Skyline Champion and its stock price or valuation.

But editorially, it should be said that Skyline Champion, Cavco Industries (CVCO) and others should be performing better than they are.

Some insider voices hint that not everyone in Skyline Champion and/or Cavco are not keen on the Clayton Homes backed and Manufactured Housing Institute’s de facto, but unstated, game plan. Be that as it may, there is no clear and public indication that either firm is bucking Clayton/Berkshire’s leadership. Quite the opposite has been occurring for some years.

SarahJanowiczPhotoSkylineChampionLogoQuoteCSkylineChampionLikeOtherManufacturedHomeBuildersWorkingWithSupportsManufacturedHousingInstituteEffortsMHProNewsLogo
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/investor-alert-manufactured-housing-institute-paltering-concerns-fannie-maes-duty-to-serve-plus-manufactured-housing-investing-stocks-updates/
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Bill Boor is correct in saying that the industry has an opportunity to ‘catch up’ – or even pass – conventional housing builders. But that opportunity existed 2 decades ago too. That means, that until the root issues are addressed, authentic progress will not be obtained. That noted, by addressing the root issues robust growth can occur.

A legal on a significant manufactured housing industry update on an MHI member brand is planned for this upcoming week. It is based on insights and documentation from a law firm that should know.

Several of the headlines in the week that was indicate that mainstream housing is dipping. But is that a reason for HUD Code manufactured homes to slide too? Logically, that should hardly be the case.

Nevertheless, the increasingly apparent lack of serious effort by MHI toward boost robust industry growth is evident in headline after headline.

Don’t miss today’s postscript.

With no further adieu, here are the headlines for the week that was from 3.20 to 3.27.2022.

 

What’s New on MHLivingNews

ShockTrinityBroadcastingNetworkOwnedLakesideParkEstatesResidentsToldCommunityBeingClosedAllMobileHomeManufacturedHomeRV-ResidentsMustMoveManufacturedHomeLivingNews
https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/shock-trinity-broadcasting-network-owned-lakeside-park-estates-residents-told-community-is-being-closed-all-mobile-home-manufactured-home-and-rv-residents-must-move-shoppers-alert/

What’s New on the Masthead

MarketWatchEconomistIanShepherdsonSaysHomeSalesHeadingFor25PercentDropInNearTermJoeBidenSaid-OurEconomicStrategyHasWorkedIthinkItsStillWorkingFactsAnalysisMastMHProNews
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/masthead/marketwatch-economist-ian-shepherdson-says-home-sales-heading-for-25-percent-drop-in-near-term-joe-biden-said-our-economic-strategy-has-worked-i-think-its-still/

What’s the Latest from Washington, D.C. from MHARR

Lies, Damned Lies and DOE’s Energy Rule

What’s New on the Words of Wisdom with Tim Connor, CSP

“Knowledge is power but enthusiasm pulls the switch.”

What’s New on the Daily Business News on MHProNews

Saturday 3.26.2022

Reports About Housing Slowdown Grow-National Association of Realtors, Homebuilders vs. RV Data, What Manufactured Housing Professionals Could Learn from Facts and Evidence; plus MHVille Markets

Friday 3.25.2022

‘Big Wall Street Firms Role’ in ‘Skyrocketing Rents’ Median Rents Hit New Record ‘Lack of New Construction’ ‘Corporate Landlords’ Contributing Causes – Facts, Video, Analysis; plus MHVille Markets

Thursday 3.24.2022

Since Loss of Stinebert at Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) ‘Empowered F-cking Greedy, Selfish Leaders of Companies to Make MHI a Tool for Themselves’-plus MHVille Markets Update

Wednesday 3.23.2022

SEC on ESG-Risk Looms; 37 Percent of Democrats, 62 Percent of Independents say America on ‘Wrong Track,’ Discontent with Biden, Democrat Controlled Congress Ahead of Midterms; plus MHVille Markets

Tuesday 3.22.2022

Manufactured Housing Institute of South Carolina (MHISC) Meeting Announcement, Another ROC Manufactured Home Community Deal; plus Manufactured Home Equities Updates

Monday 3.21.2022

JDSupra-CFPB Announces Inquiry Manufactured Home Communities, Private Equity, Consolidation Issues, PLUS UDAAP Updates-Will 21st, VMF, ELS, Rolfe and Reynolds, MHI/NCC Strategies Prove Wrong?

Sunday 3.20.2022

‘Announcing!’ ‘Manufactured Community Owners’ Association of America’ ‘Finally Bringing Fight To Manufactured Home Community Sector of the Industry’ – plus Sunday Weekly Manufactured Housing Headlines Review  

Postscript

There are two infographics provided below from third-parties.  The first is by the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI). It asserts that in 2020, per IBTS data, that there were 129 active building or production centers operating in manufactured housing. The second graphic by MHVillage/MHInsider, and it is fascinating on several levels. In no particular order of importance is the point that even as manufactured housing demand has increased, there are only about 6 new production centers opened nationally, per MHI data, in the past two years. Ponder that for a moment. During an affordable housing shortage, a relatively modest number of new production centers have been brought online.

Another point from the MHV data is that Clayton Homes (BRK), Skyline Champion (SKY), and Cavco Industries (CVCO) have about 80 percent market share. Yet, SKY and CVCO continue to talk about consolidation. What are their corporate leaders thinking? Isn’t it obvious that it will require opening up new production centers to increase production? Are they so brazenly trying to consolidate the industry as to attempt to press all independents out of the market before they grow production and distribution?

ManufacturedHomeProductionByStateIBTS2020DataGraphicManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoManufacturedHomeProNewsLogo

 

MHInsiderMHVillageInfographicSome2020dataManufacturedHousingMarketShare-MHProNews

 

While what is provided is interesting, MHVillage fails to provide a foundational framework or point of reference for their data. Meaning, where is there any reference to the industry’s trends and historic data? Where is there a graphic like the one below, which MHProNews has been periodically updating in recent years?  While there ought to be some level of ‘celebration’ that manufactured housing has finally crossed the 100,000 homes per year level in 2021, that’s isn’t mentioned by MHV in the graphic above. Much less is there a greater context that in 1998, manufactured housing collectively produced a reported 373,142 new HUD Code manufactured homes. Meaning, our profession is still operating at less than 30 percent of the level that was achieved in 23 years ago.

 

MHARRHUDCodeManufacturedHousingProductionShipmentsModernManufacturedHomeProduction1995-2021ManufacturedHomeProNewsMHProNews2.12.2022.1024x468
Dated and at times inaccurate or misleading information is available on the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) website, which may explain why MHProNews and MHLivingNews has robust traffic and high levels of engagement when new visitors arrive. That is per third-party metrics. Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.

 

So, by contrast to MHI and MHI member MHV, MHProNews and our MHLivingNews sister site routinely reminds readers that manufactured housing is still underperforming historically in terms of production and sales.

UpdatedMobileHomesManufacturedHomesCompareConventionalHousingInfographicsData2021ThirdPartyResearchedFactsTrailerstoAffordableModernManufacturedHomes
https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/updated-mobile-homes-manufactured-homes-conventional-housing-comparisons-data-and-infographics-2021-third-party-researched-facts-from-trailers-to-affordable-modern-manufactured-housing/

MHI has openly – and stunningly – admitted in their own words what MHARR has been accusing them of, namely, that MHI is giving the DOE a lifeline on their flagging energy rule. Why is that shocking story being ignored by other industry publications and bloggers?

ShockManufacturedHousingInstituteLOGOboldyGivesUnforcedErrorDocAfterFavorableCourtRulingMHIchargedThrowingLifelineToDOE-Energ
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/masthead/shock-manufactured-housing-institute-boldy-gives-unforced-error-doc-after-favorable-court-ruling-mhi-charged-throwing-lifeline-to-doe-energy-rule-mhi-admits-harms/

What MHI has not yet admitted is that they have failed to flex their legal muscles on getting enhanced preemption enforced. Or in getting the GSEs or Ginnie Mae to turn on the spigot of more competitive financing that could send manufactured housing sales soaring.

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https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/national-spotlight-tiny-house-calhoun-suit-nonprofit-attorneys-institute-of-justice-sue-wheres-manufactured-housing-institute-plant-a-home-manufactured-housing-improvement-act-en/

Skyline and Cavco have board positions. Supposedly, per MHI outside attorney David Goch, MHI welcomes debate and vigorous discussion. That hardly seems plausible, given the years of evidence published here and on MHLivingNews, which we have repeatedly invited MHI to debate. Indeed, the two pull quotes from Gooch – both taken from the same document – almost suggest the contradictory nature of their respective claims.

DavidPGochJD-attorneyPhotoWebsterChamberlainBeanLOGO-quoteMHI-SeeksAllPointsofViewMostFavorableOutcomesQuotableQuoteMHProNews
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/sun-communities-official-q2-2021-results-inversion-spencer-roane-letter-manufactured-housing-institute-scientia-potentia-est-plus-manufactured-home-stock-updates/
DavidPGochJD-attorneyPhotoWebsterChamberlainBeanLOGO-quoteMHI-ActivelyMonitorsUntrueDisparagingStatementsMHProNewsQuotableQuote
Goch is a paid mouthpiece for MHI. This pull quote from a letter from Goch is fascinating. On the one hand, Goch says that MHI is working for the interests of all, and wants all points of view. But then, Goch threatens in writing an then MHI member who dared question the association. They can not have it both ways. Part of the irony is that in hindsight, as the evidence mounts, it becomes obvious that MHI has postured efforts for almost 20 years, since the start of the Berkshire era of manufactured housing began. Coincidence? Or just part of a broader plan that has benefited a few at great cost and harm to the many? https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/sun-communities-official-q2-2021-results-inversion-spencer-roane-letter-manufactured-housing-institute-scientia-potentia-est-plus-manufactured-home-stock-updates/
HowardWalkerJDpicEquityLifestylePropertiesManufacturedHousingInstituteLogos4ManuHousingInstLeadersPubliclyDuckingOutExplainingPerformanceLackThereofELSHowardWalkerMHProNews
MHI has been ducking accountability for years, as these documented examples reflect. https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/masthead/4-quick-documented-examples-of-manufactured-housing-institute-leaders-publicly-ducking-out-on-explaining-their-performance-or-lack-thereof-els-howard-walker/

Ironically, the headline report from last Sunday is a reminder that there are professionals who clearly recognize the need for a new post-production trade group. That announcement by MHR was a slap in the face of MHI, though that is not how it was framed.

The bottom line for today? Be it Skyline Champion, Cavco Industries, or any other non-Clayton Homes producer of HUD Code manufactured housing, there is a case to be made that the industry’s producers ought to be able grow in a profitable and sustainable fashion. The laws needed to support that growth already exist. So, why are Skyline Champion and Cavco’s leaders not promoting a vigorous enforcement, using attorneys and lawsuits as necessary, to press the federal government to implement laws that have been on the book for over one and two decades respectively?

If Skyline Champion’s slump continues, their investors arguably do not have to look beyond that firm’s corporate management for accountability. As the headlines and reports for the week that was documented, millions of new housing units are needed. Only factory builders can close that gap. Manufactured housing has the laws needed to make the overcome the financing, zoning, and placement issues of the 1990s and previously. On the threats from the DOE energy rule, MHI has the legal muscle to do what’s needed there too. So, what is MHI waiting for, then? The answers routinely seems to be – more consolidation.  As an MHI insider told MHProNews last week, since Chris Stinebert left MHI, a cabal of corporate leaders have taken control of that trade group. That group, per that insider, are ‘f-cking greedy, selfish leaders of companies that have sought to make MHI a tool for themselves.’  That happens to fit the less colorful, but similar description from former MHI award winner Marty Lavin.

 

The ‘announced’ new so-called trade group covered in last Sunday’s report may be nothing more than a diversion or head-fake. But it is a reminder of what is needed. Namely, for ethical and growth-minded post-production professionals to form a group that can work with independent and growth-minded producers at the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) to unleash the industry’s good laws. Doing so would open the door to potentially millions who are seeking their part of the American Dream of home ownership. ##

‘We’re in a Long-Term Housing Shortage’ – Realtor.com’s Chief Economist Danielle Hale – Millions of Units Needed, MHI’s New Hire – Manufactured Housing Opportunities Knock; Sunday Headlines Recap

###

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Again, our thanks to you, our sources, and sponsors and God for making and keeping us the runaway number one source for authentic “News through the lens of manufactured homes and factory-built housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)

CongRepAlGreenDeskTamasKovachLATonyKovachPhoto12.3.2019ManufacturedHomeProNews
Our son has grown quite a bit since this 12.2019 photo. All on Capitol Hill were welcoming and interested in our manufactured housing industry related concerns. But Congressman Al Green’s office was tremendous in their hospitality. Our son’s hand is on a package that included the Constitution of the United States, bottled water, and other goodies.

By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.com.

Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing.

For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position, and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.

http://latonykovach.com

Connect on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/latonykovach

 

Related References:

The text/image boxes below are linked to other reports, which can be accessed by clicking on them.

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