Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) has fallen to a new all-time low, per Fannie’s media release to MHProNews. “Consumer Confidence in Housing Drop Continues,” said Fannie Mae. New and existing conventional housing sales are suffering under the pressures of rising interest rates nationally, plus still rising housing prices in some areas of the U.S. These factors may prove somewhat beneficial for manufactured housing, at least for the short term. That notion is reflected in the still growing manufactured housing production and shipment data reflected in the most recent report shown below.
With that backdrop here is the latest from Fannie Mae’ monthly consumer sentiment survey on homebuying. This will be followed by additional information with more MHProNews analysis and commentary. The Daily Business News on MHProNews manufactured home communities Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with manufactured housing connected equities market report will be our customary final segment for this business-daily post.
Consumer Confidence in Housing Hits New All-Time Low
Only 16% of Consumers Report Now is a Good Time to Buy a Home
WASHINGTON, DC – November 8, 2022 – The Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 4.1 points in October to 56.7, its eighth consecutive monthly decline and lowest reading since the inception of the index in 2011. Five of the six index components decreased month over month, including those associated with home buying and selling conditions, as persistently high home prices and unfavorable mortgage rates continue to fuel consumers’ housing affordability concerns. Only 16% of respondents indicated that now is a good time to buy a home – a new survey low – while the percentage who believe now is a good time to sell a home decreased sharply from 59% to 51% in October. Year over year, the full index is down 18.8 points.
“The HPSI reached an all-time survey low this month, in line with expectations that the housing market will continue to cool in the months ahead,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about both homebuying and home-selling conditions. Amid persistently high home prices and unfavorable mortgage rates, the ‘bad time to buy’ component increased to a new survey high this month, while the ‘good time to sell’ component continued its downward trend. Consumers also remain concerned about the movement of home prices – expectations that prices will decrease reached a new survey high, particularly among homeowners – offering further support to our forecast of home price declines in 2023. As continued affordability constraints reduce homebuyer demand, and homeowners become reluctant to sell at potentially reduced prices, we expect home sales to slow even further in the coming months, consistent with our forecast.”
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in October by 4.1 points to 56.7. The HPSI is down 18.8 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 19% to 16%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 75% to 80%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 8 percentage points month over month.
- Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 59% to 51%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell increased from 33% to 42%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 17 percentage points month over month.
- Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 32% to 30%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 35% to 37%. The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from 28% to 26%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up decreased 4 percentage points month over month.
- Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 9% to 6%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 64% to 65%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 20% to 24%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 4 percentage points month over month.
- Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 78% to 85%, while the percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 21% to 15%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 13 percentage points month over month.
- Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 26% to 25%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 11% to 15%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 61% to 60%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 5 percentage points month over month.
To learn more about Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey consumer attitude measures, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was recently awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021. ##
Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
In several respects this Fannie Mae HPSI report by their ESR group is no surprise. The reasons are provided in the two recent reports linked below.
CNN, USA Today, and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) have each recently published insights that reflect growing frustration with the system as it relates to housing. First time homebuying has fallen to the lowest level on record (see above). Affordable housing is in demand, particularly for first time buyers and downsizers. Manufactured housing is benefiting from these trends, but arguably not to the level that the manufactured home industry should be achieving.
The trends are clear. Conventional housing is in a slide. Inflation and interest rate hikes are among the reasons why.
Daily Business News on MHProNews Markets Segment
The modifications of our prior Daily Business News on MHProNews recap of the recap of yesterday evening’s market report are provided below. It still includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines. The macro market moves graphics will provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities.
In minutes a day readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that are impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. For instance: click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the ‘x out’ (close window) escape or back key to return.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 11.8.2022
- Forget the midterms
- The Capitol is seen on Election Day in Washington, early Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. After months of primaries, campaign events and fundraising pleas, today's midterm elections will determine the balance of power in Congress.
Wall Street is bracing for election results — but Thursday’s inflation report may be a bigger deal
- Trump-linked SPAC stock goes bonkers ahead of midterms
- Crypto exchange Binance to buy struggling rival FTX
- A plan to tax the rich to fund electric cars is on the ballot in California
- Getting laid off? Know your rights
- Elizabeth Holmes’ request for a new trial is denied
- Carvana stock plummets as used car prices fall
- Election Day deals: Donuts, pizza and cheap rides
- Twitter users are flocking to Mastodon. Here’s a beginner’s guide
- Companies are back to hosting lavish parties and expensive dinners
- EU opens deeper probe of Microsoft’s Activision deal
- Adidas scoops up CEO who turned around rival Puma
- Kohl’s CEO leaves for Levi’s
- Advertisers joke about the end times and turnip lattes as inflation bites
- Can the Ukraine war accelerate the shift to renewables?
- NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 27: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 27, 2022 in New York City. Stocks continued their upward gains Thursday with the Dow rising nearly 400 points following a new GDP report that beat expectations.
- Stocks rise as Americans head to the polls
- Voters mark their ballot in a privacy booth at West Side High School during early voting in New York City.
- What the midterms could mean for taxes, Social Security and more
- Tom Cruise plays Capt. Pete “Maverick” Mitchell in Top Gun: Maverick from Paramount Pictures, Skydance and Jerry Bruckheimer Films.
- RISK TAKERS No one predicted ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ would become one of the highest grossing films in history
- A Twitter logo hangs outside the company’s San Francisco offices on Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022.
- Twitter could be a new wild card for the midterms
- How midterms could affect Wall Street
How QAnon and election lies spread in Spanish
- Analysis: Biden issued a warning about election deniers
- Musk hints that Trump will not be back on Twitter before the midterms
- BUSINESS OF SPORTS
- NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 31: Kyrie Irving #11 of the Brooklyn Nets looks on during a break in the action during the first quarter of the game against the Indiana Pacers at Barclays Center on October 31, 2022 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.
- Nike suspends relationship with Kyrie Irving
- Aaron Donald and Jaylen Brown leave Kanye West’s Donda Sports agency
- NFL adds Black Friday game exclusively for Amazon
- Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz dies, company says
- Major League Baseball players union joins the AFL-CIO
Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax 11.8.2022
- Florida to Monitor DOJ Election Observers
- Voters wait in line to cast their ballots at Wa-Ke Hatchee Recreation Center in Fort Myers, Florida, on Tuesday. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
- The Department of Justice and the state of Florida both are sending observers to polling places Tuesday in three Sunshine State counties, Florida Politics reported. [Full Story]
- The 2022 Elections
- In Russia, Some Hope US Midterms Means Less Ukraine Aid, More Chaos
- Voters Weigh New Tax on Rich to Boost EVs
Trump Votes for DeSantis, Drops Hints About 2024 Run | video
- Bernie Kerik to Newsmax: FBI’s Poll Watchers a Concern | video
- Final Pre-election Cook Report: GOP ‘Easily’ Taking House
- Official: ‘No Credible’ Midterm Elections Cyberthreats Detected
- Ballot Scanners Reportedly Defective in N.J. County
- Twitter Girds for Surge in US Midterm Election Misinformation
- RNC Releases Video Encouraging American to ‘Go Vote’ | video
- GOP Could Snag 3 or 4 New House Seats From Pa.
- More The 2022 Elections
- Newsmax TV
- Herrell: New Mexicans Focused on ‘Border Crisis’ | video
- Mastriano: I’ll Defy Biden, Open More Coal Plants | video
- RNC’s Danielle Alvarez: Nazi Germany Talk ‘Absolutely Ridiculous’ | video
- Bernie Kerik: FBI’s Poll Watchers a Concern | video
- Davidson to Newsmax: GOP Voters Sending Message | video
- Pollster McLaughlin to Newsmax: Left, Media Cover Selves for Biased Polls | video
- GOP’s Karamo: Parents Being ‘Demonized’ by Dem Leaders
- Cornell Suspends Frat Parties After Alleged Assault, Druggings
- Cornell University suspended fraternity parties and social events after a student was allegedly sexually assaulted over the weekend and at least four others were recently drugged at off-campus locations, Business Insider reported…. [Full Story]
- $2.04B Winning Powerball Ticket Sold in California
- Someone who bought a Powerball ticket in California has won a record [Full Story]
- Russian Hackers Threaten DNC Website Hack as GOP ‘Gift’
- An unspecified group of Russian hackers saidit wants to give [Full Story]
- Musk’s Net Worth Slips Below $200B as Tesla Shares Waver
- Elon Musk’s net worth dropped below $200 billion on Tuesday as [Full Story]
- Biden Says He Feels 50 as Questions Loom Over Fitness
- President Joe Biden said in a national radio interview that he still [Full Story]
- Zelenskyy: Talks With Russia Possible on Ukraine’s Terms
- Ukraine’s president has hinted at the possibility of peace talks with [Full Story]
- Russian Private Poll: Support Drops for War Against Ukraine
- Putin Rivals Plot ‘Elimination’ of the Kremlin
- Russian Marines Blame ‘Incompetent’ Generals for Losses in Ukraine
- NKorea Denies Arms Dealings With Russia, Says It Has No Plans to Do So
- Iran Admits Supplying Russia With Drones
- In Russia, Some Hope US Midterms Will Mean Less Ukraine Aid and More Chaos
- UPS Mishap Causing 155 Texas Students to Retake College Test
- Some 315 students from El Paso High School in Texas, whose completed [Full Story]
- How Kari Lake Surged in Arizona
- Kari Lake’s unabashed, controversial views about the “stolen” 2020 [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- CDC Warns of Serious Infections From Dentists’ Water Lines
- The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is warning that a [Full Story]
- Abortion on the Ballot in 5 States
- Abortion may not be anywhere close to the top issue concerning most [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- No New Trial for Theranos Founder Elizabeth Holmes
- Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes’ request for a new trial was denied [Full Story]
- Voters Weigh New Tax on Rich to Boost EVs
- Should California’s richest residents pay higher taxes to help put [Full Story]
- Stocks Rise on Wall Street Ahead of Election, Inflation Data
- Stocks rose in midday trading on Wall Street Tuesday as Americans [Full Story]
- Oil Prices Dip on China Demand Worries, Midterms
- Oil prices dipped on Tuesday on growing worries about fuel demand as [Full Story]
- Dementia Prevalence Declining Among Older Americans
- There’s good news for aging adults: Prevalence of dementia declined [Full Story]
- Abdul-Jabbar: Kyrie Irving Being ‘Used’ to Promote Antisemitism
- NBA legend Kareem Abdul-Jabbar says Brooklyn Nets star Kyrie Irving [Full Story]
- Irving Must Meet Six Conditions to Return to Nets |video
- Gold Up Over 2 Percent on Dollar Slide, Technical Buying
- Gold prices rose more than 2% on Tuesday to breach the key $1,700 per [Full Story]
- Biden White House Calls Early Election Day Media ‘Lid’
- The White House called a press “lid” during the 11 a.m. hour (EST) [Full Story]
- Video Report: Trump Votes for Florida Gov. DeSantis
- Former President Donald Trump says he voted for Florida GOP Gov. Ron [Full Story] | video
- VA to Prioritize Veterans With Cancer for PACT Act Benefits
- The toxic exposure law signed earlier this year means that veterans [Full Story]
- Bill Clinton Says Border ‘Needs Order’
- Former President Bill Clinton said the United States border needs [Full Story]
- Florida to Monitor DOJ Election Observers
- The Department of Justice and the state of Florida both are sending [Full Story]
- Video Report: Trump Teases Nov. 15 Decision on ’24 Bid
- Former President Donald Trump announced a Nov. 15 decision on 2024 at [Full Story] | video
- Chris Evans Is People Magazine’s Sexiest Man Alive
- Chris Evans might have put down Captain America’s shield, but he has [Full Story]
- Manchin’s Comments Create Hope for Bipartisan Entitlements Deal
- Several conservative lawmakers said they welcomed Sen. Joe Manchin, [Full Story]
- Novavax Says Omicron Shot Shows Strong Immune Response
- Vaccine maker Novavax Inc said on Tuesday its COVID-19 shot retooled [Full Story]
- Washington Post Gives Biden ‘Bottomless Pinocchio’
- The Washington Post’s resident fact checker has assigned President Joe [Full Story] | video
- Tesla Recalls 40K US Vehicles for Power Steering Issue
- Tesla Inc. is recalling just over 40,000 2017-2021 Model S and Model [Full Story]
- Gizzi: Wisc. Poll Gives Sen. Johnson Biggest-Ever Lead
- One could almost hear the collective sighs of relief of Republicans [Full Story] | video
- Legal Experts Weigh DOJ Appointing Special Counsel
- Legal experts suggest it would be a bad idea for the Justice [Full Story]
- Houston Man Arrested for Attacking Sen. Ted Cruz
- The Houston Police Department released a statement Monday after [Full Story]
- More Newsfront
- Musk’s Net Worth Slips Below $200B as Tesla Shares Waver
- Elon Musk’s net worth dropped below $200 billion on Tuesday as investors dumped Tesla Inc. shares on fears the top executive and largest shareholder of the world’s most valuable electric-vehicle maker is more preoccupied with Twitter…. [Full Story]
- to Vote on Millionaire Tax, Illegals’ Drivers License
- T Rex Skull Unearthed in S.D. to Be Auctioned at Sotheby’s
- Barclays Cuts Investment Banking Jobs
- Cathie Wood Foresees ‘Significant Downturn’ in Inflation
- More Finance
- Study: Just Two Minutes of Vigorous Exercise Daily Boosts Longevity
- No time to exercise? Now, a new two-part study out of Australia finds that excuse won’t fly anymore. The researchers found that a mere two-minute burst of intense exercise daily for 15 minutes total for the week is associated with a lower risk of death. According to Study… [Full Story]
- Practicing Mindfulness Lowers Blood Pressure
- UPDATE 1-CDC Director Walensky Recovers From COVID
- Ovary Removal Before Menopause Linked to Increased Parkinson’s Risk
- New Drug Effective Against Uncontrolled High Blood Pressure
- NOTE 1: The 3rd chart above includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the equities named above follow.
Manufactured Home Communities (a.k.a. ‘Mobile Home Parks’ – SIC) – Exploring UMH Properties; Fellow Manufactured Housing Institute Member Yes! Communities Suits and Settlements; plus MH Markets Updates
Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.