The potential and innate resiliency of the manufactured housing industry vs. the conventional existing home sales and new single family housing markets is demonstrated once more by the data provided on 10.7.2022 by Fannie Mae’s Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group (ESR). Per Fannie’s ESR, home purchase sentiment is overall down. Their press release will be followed by additional information with more MHProNews analysis and commentary. The MHVille Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and stock market report for manufactured housing industry connected equities on 10.7.2022 is found in the third segment of this article.
Housing Sentiment Dips Again, Inches Closer to All-Time Low
Consumers Appear Increasingly Sensitive to Affordability Constraints of Higher Mortgage Rates and Elevated Home Prices
WASHINGTON, DC – October 7, 2022 – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 1.2 points in September to 60.8, its seventh consecutive monthly decline, amid growing affordability constraints. Surveyed consumers reported expectations that mortgage rates will move higher over the next 12 months, and, for the first time since May 2020, more respondents than not expect home prices to decline. In September, only 19% of consumers indicated that it’s a good time to buy a home – down from 22% the prior month – while 59% indicated that it’s a good time to sell. Year over year, the full index is down 13.7 points.
“The HPSI declined this month to its lowest level since October 2011,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Consumers’ expectation that home prices will decrease matched a survey high, with a higher percentage of consumers believing home prices will decrease rather than increase over the next year – a shift in survey sentiment that had previously only happened in 2011 and at the start of the pandemic in 2020. Moreover, 75% of consumers still think it’s a bad time to buy a home, with most citing high home prices and unfavorable economic and mortgage rate conditions as primary reasons. As long as supply is limited and affordability pressures continue to constrain potential homebuyers via elevated home prices and mortgage rates, we expect home sales will remain sluggish.”
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in September by 1.2 points to 60.8. The HPSI is down 13.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy:The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 22% to 19%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 73% to 75%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 5 percentage points month over month.
- Good/Bad Time to Sell:The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home remained unchanged at 59%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell decreased from 35% to 33%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 2 percentage points month over month.
- Home Price Expectations:The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 33% to 32%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 33% to 35%. The share who think home prices will stay the same remained unchanged at 28%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up decreased 3 percentage points month over month.
- Mortgage Rate Expectations:The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 11% to 9%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 61% to 64%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 25% to 20%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 5 percentage points month over month.
- Job Loss Concern:The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 79% to 78%, while the percentage who say they are concerned remained unchanged at 21%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 1 percentage point month over month.
- Household Income:The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from 25% to 26%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower decreased from 15% to 11%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 59% to 61%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 5 percentage points month over month.To learn more about Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey consumer attitude measures, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. …” ##
Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary in Brief
While Fannie’s ESR fails to mention manufactured housing at all, that too speaks volumes. Despite the so-called Duty to Serve (DTS) Manufactured Housing, Rural, and Underserved Markets mandated by Congress via the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008, both GSEs arguably thumb their nose to chattel lending, which MHARR says reflects nearly 80 percent of all manufactured home sales. For those who were not present in the industry at the end of the 21st century, the GSEs used to provide such financial access to the secondary market for home only manufactured home loans. While the GSEs moan that they took it on the nose from bogus DP deals in part of the 1990s, it is a “pimple on an elephant’s ass” compared to the multi-trillion hit that taxpayer’s bailed the GSEs out of during the housing and finance collapse circa 2008.
When giving excuses are the goal, even a thin and easily debunked excuse may be satisfactory for some.
Despite the fact that the Urban Institute said that manufactured housing would likely appreciate even more given more financing options, LendingTree, the FHFA, and other research demonstrates manufactured housing has appreciated faster than conventional housing in dozens of states.
Put differently, when the facts are examined, Fannie and Freddie’s refusal to support manufactured housing oddly mirrors the dramatic pull-back by Ginnie Mae on manufactured home FHA Title I lending. Could it be that the Warren Buffett moat is at work on the financing side?
Mark Weiss, J.D., CEO of the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) continues to press such issues for industry independents in a manner that could benefit large numbers of consumers. Unfortunately, MHI has not joined MHARR’s efforts, siding instead with the competitors of manufactured housing.
That snapshot reflects the sobering reality that Prosperity Now’s Doug Ryan said some years ago. Namely, that MHI is working to protect Clayton’s lending advantage in manufactured housing.
See the linked and related reports to learn more. But until then, independents should consider the need to flip the House and Senate and follow the plan outlined below.
Daily Business News on MHProNews Markets Segment
NOTICE: Based on feedback, a modification of our Daily Business News on MHProNews recap of yesterday evening’s market report is provided. It will still include our left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines. The macro market moves graphics will provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. Click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the escape or back key to return.
Note: on 10.5.2022 CNN Business proclaimed (see below) a ‘real estate recession.’ But by following the facts, evidence, citing various experts and sources along with relevant analysis by MHProNews said on 8.27.2022 that the U.S. is in “a housing recession.” MHProNews predicted in the spring of 2021 that inflation would soar. Some in the mainstream only grudgingly acknowledged months later that it would be so. MHProNews said that gas prices were going to start rising on 9.5.2022, while they were still modestly falling. OPEC plus announced they are cutting production and prices were already rising. The point? This is your source for reliable information, analysis and commentary. MHProNews provides “Intelligence for your MHLife.”
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 10.7.2022
- Friday flameout
- NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 23: People walk outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on September 23, 2022 in New York City. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped more than 400 points as recession fears grow. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
- LIVE UPDATES: Stocks tumbled after the jobs report, but are still up about 2% for the week
LIVE UPDATES: Wage growth is slowing, but when will inflation follow?
- The US job market remains robust, but is showing signs of cooling
- Hurricane Ian delivers a devastating blow to uninsured homeowners
- Rocketing energy costs are savaging German industry
- Facing risk of blackouts, the UK will drill for more oil in the North Sea
- Opinion: The Fed doesn’t have a choice. Get ready for a recession
- Biden signs order to implement EU-US data privacy framework
- Kanye West’s partnership with Adidas is in danger after ‘White Lives Matter’ incident
- Cathay Pacific has lost over 40% of its captains and first officers
- Hong Kong’s U-turn on quarantine is a sign Beijing still needs the West
- ‘Made in America’ is making a comeback
- VIENNA, AUSTRIA – OCTOBER 05: Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud holds a press conference after the 33rd OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC ministerial meeting, which was held to evaluate the market conditions and to discuss the production amount to be applied as of November, in Vienna, Austria on October 05, 2022.
- Why Saudi Arabia defied the US over OPEC oil supply cut
- Tesla’s new electric semi truck is unveiled during a presentation in Hawthorne, California, U.S., November 16, 2017.
- Tesla set to deliver long-delayed electric trucks to Pepsi in December
- Binance-linked blockchain hit by $570 million crypto theft
- A customer refuels at a Chevron gas station in San Francisco, California, US, on Monday, Oct. 3, 2022.
- Gas prices are starting to take off again. More increases are on the way
- OPEC announces huge cut to oil production
- US Rep. slams Saudi Arabia as ‘third-rate power’
- What you need to know Nord Stream pipelines leak
- Germany to borrow $200 billion to cap energy bills
- TWITTER DEAL
- Musk deal could see Trump back on Twitter by midterms
- How Elon Musk could change Twitter
- How things went so badly for the new CEO so quickly
- Musk again proposes buying Twitter at full price
- Twitter acquisition isn’t a done deal yet
Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax 10.7.2022
- Ben Sasse Expected to Resign to Lead University of Florida
- NYC Mayor: Migrant Surge Creating a $1B Crisis for City
A view of Randall’s Island, which New York City Mayor Eric Adams (inset) has designated as the site of a tent city for migrants. (AP)
- New York City Mayor Eric Adams on Friday declared the migrant surge a state of emergency, telling reporters the influx will cost the city about $1 billion. [Full Story]
- Newsmax TV
- Dick Morris: Biden Trying to ‘Wag the Dog’ With Nuke Warning | video
- Blaine Holt: Biden ‘Fearmongering’ Without Diplomacy With Warning | video
- Florida Official: EVs Dangerous in Storm Surges | video
- Montana AG Knudsen: Biden ‘Ignoring’ Fentanyl | video
- Mayor: ‘Biden Dumping on Montgomery,’ N.Y. | video
- Fred Fleitz: Russian Cyberattack Could Threaten National Security | video
- O’Reilly: GOP-Led House Might Impeach Biden | video
- Bolton: US Won’t Give Poland Nukes | video
- More Newsmax TV
- Uvalde Schools Suspend Police Force After Hiring Outrage
- The Uvalde, Texas, school district on Friday pulled its embattled campus police force off the job following a wave of new outrage over the hiring of a former Texas state trooper who was part of the hesitant law enforcement response during the May shooting at Robb Elementary School… [Full Story]
- US Intel: Putin Confronted by Insider Over Ukraine
- A member of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle [Full Story]
- Zelenskyy’s ‘Preventive Strike’ Remark Referred to Sanctions, Spokesperson Says
- UN Rights Body Agrees to Appoint Expert to Scrutinize Russia
- Ukrainian Soldiers Raise Flag in Kherson Region Village
- Texas Gov. Will Ship Migrants to NYC Despite Emergency Declaration
- Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said he will continue to ship migrants to New [Full Story]
- Sasse Expected to Resign, Lead University of Florida
Ben Sasse, R-Neb., will reportedly resign his post by the end of [Full Story]
- Trump Mocks ‘Liddle Ben Sasse’
- Gizzi: What Sasse’s Unexpected Exit Means
- OPEC+ Cut Shows Widening Rift Between Biden, Saudi Royals
- The OPEC+ organization’s decision this week to cut oil production [Full Story]
- Putin Likely to Limit Possible Tactical Nuke Strike to Military Compound
- Ukrainian troops on the front lines of the counteroffensive against [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- NY Times: DOJ Said to Suspect Trump Has Additional Documents
- Jay Bratt, who heads the Justice Department’s counterintelligence [Full Story]
- China Practices Using Car Ferries to Invade Taiwan
- China’s People’s Liberation Army last month used civilian car ferries [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- Barnard College Will Offer Medication Abortions for Students
- Barnard College, a private women’s school affiliated with Columbia [Full Story]
- Bush Says Second Abortion Performed Against Her Will
- Cori Bush, D-Mo., says her second abortion was performed against [Full Story]
- RNC Chair McDaniel: Voters Know What’s at Stake in Midterms
- Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel on Friday [Full Story]
- White House: No Need to Change ‘Strategic Nuclear Posture’
- White House: No Need to Change ‘Strategic Nuclear Posture’
- The White House on Friday said there is no need to alter the nation’s [Full Story]
- Grassley Will Not Support Graham’s 15-Week Abortion Ban
- Iowa GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley said he would vote against a bill [Full Story]
- Republicans Expand Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot
- Forty-seven percent of likely voters would cast their ballots for the [Full Story]
- Indian MD Warns Diabetics: “Stop Fasting Now”
- Easy Health Tips
- WH: COVID Booster Campaign Going Well, Should Pick Up
- White House expects the rate of vaccination in its fall booster [Full Story]
- US Aims to Hobble China Chip Industry With Sweeping Export Rules
- The Biden administration on Friday published a sweeping set of export [Full Story]
- New York Mayor Declares Crisis, Says Migrant Surge to Cost $1B
- New York City Mayor Eric Adams on Friday declared the migrant surge a [Full Story]
- MAGA Inc Senate Ads Running in Pennsylvania, Ohio
- A PAC sanctioned by former President Donald Trump launched video ads [Full Story]
- Republicans Push for Rulings on Arizona, Swing State Poll Workers
- Republicans are seeking legal rulings in swing states concerning the [Full Story]
- Biden Moves to End Legal Limbo for US Big Tech in Europe
- US President Joe Biden signed an executive order Friday designed to [Full Story]
- Sources: Feds Believe They Have Enough to Charge Hunter Biden
- Federal investigators believe they have sufficient evidence to charge [Full Story]
- Dershowitz to Newsmax: Biden Wouldn’t Pardon Son Before Election |video
- Bill O’Reilly to Newsmax: GOP-Led House Might Impeach Biden |video
- Alan Dershowitz to Newsmax: Trump ‘Most Interested’ Hunter Is Not Charged |video
- Video Report: Federal Agents Believe They Have Enough to Charge Hunter Biden |video
- Dick Morris: Biden’s Coming ‘October Surprise’ — Count On It!
- A Biden October surprise is coming. With inflation soaring, the [Full Story]
- JK Rowling Slams Scottish Leader, Backs Protest Over Gender Bill
- K. Rowling spokeout against Nicola Sturgeon, calling the Scottish [Full Story]
- Facebook Warns 1 Million of Password-Stealing Phone Apps
- Meta warned a million Facebook users Friday that they have been [Full Story]
- Alden Global Newspapers to Stop Endorsing National, Statewide Candidates
- The country’s second-largest newspaper publisher will no longer [Full Story]
- Judge to Decide Next Steps on Ohio ‘Heartbeat’ Abortion Ban
- A judge in Ohio was scheduled to hear arguments Friday on whether to [Full Story]
- Police: 2 Dead, 6 Injured in Stabbings Along Las Vegas Strip
- An attacker with a large kitchen knife killed two people and wounded [Full Story]
- Ukrainian Soldiers Raise Flag in Kherson Region Village
- Ukrainian soldiers raised their flag at a police station in a retaken [Full Story]
- Human Rights Campaigners of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine Win Nobel Peace Prize
- Jailed Belarusian activist Ales Bialiatski has won won the 2022 Nobel [Full Story]
- US Spends $290M on Drugs to Treat Radiation Sickness
- The Biden administration is purchasing a drug supply to treat [Full Story]
- 2 Russians Seek Asylum After Reaching Alaska Island
- Two Russians who said they fled the country to avoid compulsory [Full Story]
- Equity Funds See Vast Outflows on Rate Hike Angst
- S. equity funds recorded a surge in outflows in the week to Oct. 5, as reports showing firm labor market demand and persistent core inflation stoked fears that the Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in raising interest rates…. [Full Story]
- Inflation to Prompt Consumers to Ditch Lattes for Home Brew
- Jeffrey Dumas: Time to Sidestep the Dollar?
- Stocks Drop on Recession, Rate Fears
- Lauren Fix, The Car Coach: The Government Is Increasing Its Control Over Your Car
- More Finance
- CDC: More Than 2.5 Million Teens Using E-Cigarettes
- The number of teenagers using e-cigarettes has jumped by 500,000 this year, or 24%, as more than 2.5 million students in middle school and high school have admitted to using the devices in the past 30 days… [Full Story]
- Study: Synthetic Turf May Raise Risk for Concussions in Kids
- EPA Proposes to Declare Aviation Lead Emissions Public Health Danger
- Study: Retirement Leads to Sleeping More, Exercising Less
- COVID Wave Begins in Europe, Booster Campaign Makes Slow Start
- NOTE 1: The 3rd chart above includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the equities named above follow.
Manufactured Home Communities (a.k.a. ‘Mobile Home Parks’ – SIC) – Exploring UMH Properties; Fellow Manufactured Housing Institute Member Yes! Communities Suits and Settlements; plus MH Markets Updates
Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.