On background, as in ‘off the record’, the following information was obtained by MHProNews with a source familiar with the generation of these monthly reports from the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) in conjunction with the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) and TMHA members. Per that source’s email to MHProNews on 9.7.2022 the following. “…The TMHS [Texas Manufactured Housing Survey] production index decreased in July and in August. Moreover, our product is a series of sentiment indices that may not always match the hard data. One example of this is that we tell manufacturers to compare production month to month after adjusting for seasonal factors (the latter of which may be interpreted differently by each respondent).” The reason that this is significant will be revealed following the TRERC media release to MHProNews. That report and analysis will in turn be followed by our Daily Business News on MHProNews REITs and stock report and market moving headlines from the left (CNN) and right (Newsmax).
With that brief tee up, let’s dive into their report which will be followed by additional information analysis and expert commentary.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Sept. 6, 2022/News Release No. 01-0922
Texas’ manufactured-housing industry pulls back production as sales slide
COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Texas’ housing manufacturers slowed production for the second straight month, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS), as higher interest rates shocked demand and subdued sales. The slowdown spread through daily operations, prompting plant managers to shrink payrolls and reduce work weeks.
“Manufacturers have been shortening work weeks since May, but August marked the first month of a meaningful payroll contraction,” said Wes Miller, senior research associate for the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC). “These adjustments have taken some pressure off of wages and salaries despite skilled-labor shortages.”
The TMHS labor-cost index decelerated into the single digits for the first time in series history (starting in June 2020), and other supply-side constraints moderated from pandemic peaks.
“Input prices are declining as supply chains continue to improve,” said TRERC Research
Economist Dr. Harold Hunt. “Lumber prices are a third of what they were six months ago, and shipping costs are falling. Many economists feel like inflation has peaked, but it’s still a long way back to the 2 percent target that the Federal Reserve is shooting for.”
The manufactured housing industry was cautiously optimistic regarding the supply chain, and some of the smoothing was likely caused by dampened demand across the economy. The price received for finished homes is expected to fall more than input prices over the next six months.
“Across most of the indicators in this month’s survey, the future sentiment is more moderate than current readings,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas
Manufactured Housing Association. “While everybody downshifted during August, a good share of manufacturers expects to keep running at their current production rates as we head into next year. Retailers reached a point where they needed to lower their order volumes, but they’re still selling homes at historically high levels, just not with the same amount of year-over-year gains.” While ongoing capital expenditures corroborate the positive outlook in the long run, the rapid shift in demand over the past two months has elevated uncertainty and heightened concerns as the fourth quarter approaches.
Funded by Texas real estate licensee fees, TRERC was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public.
Additional Information with More MHProNews Related Analysis and Commentary
As was noted above, MHProNews spotted what may be an apparent factual disconnect between the claims being made by TMHA and its members and thus the report being produced by the TRERC. The specific disconnect? There report seems to indicate that production/shipments in Texas have declined for two consecutive months.
Growth in production for MHVille wasn’t achieved until the post-COVID19 pandemic was declared and the demand for single family housing initially soared, until interest rates on manufactured homes and other housing loans began to rise in 2022. It had essentially nothing to do with the Clayton Homes backed MHI branded CrossMods fiasco.
MHProNews did a follow up with the source that provided this quote. Once, more, this time with the entire relevant segment of the well placed off the record source quote above.
“He [Tony/MHProNews] is referring to our August TMHS, but the data he references only runs through July. The TMHS production index decreased in July and in August.
Moreover, our product is a series of sentiment indices that may not always match the hard data. One example of this is that we tell manufacturers to compare production month to month after adjusting for seasonal factors (the latter of which may be interpreted differently by each respondent).”
This was the bulk of the MHProNews follow up.
Texas’ housing manufacturers slowed production for the second straight month, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS), as higher interest rates shocked demand and subdued sales.”
That is not sentiment. That says production. That is not what the facts reflect. Again, to put this all in a single email for the ease of all in the loop:
There was a slight dip April to May. There was a significant drop June into July (the most recent month that IBTS/HUD data is available.
Now, perhaps your researcher has hard data for August production by Texas HUD Code builders? If so, then why not produce that data as part of the report? Wouldn’t that make it more informative?
I’d value clarity on the notion that TRERC has (or does not have) precise figures for August production from all Texas HUD Code MH producers?
But then, the reply from your researcher also said:
“Moreover, our product is a series of sentiment indices that may not always match the hard data. One example of this is that we tell manufacturers to compare production month to month after adjusting for seasonal factors (the latter of which may be interpreted differently by each respondent).”
With all due respect a SAAR is something the FED or national housing data providers use for rather technical reasons. If your own researcher thinks that such a seasonally adjusted factor may be “interpreted” differently by different people, that at a minimum implies that the information may not be factually accurate.
Help me, help you, help the industry to get clarity on these issues, please. To recap:
- Now, perhaps your researcher has hard data for August production by Texas HUD Code builders?
1a) I’d value clarity on the notion that TRERC has (or does not have) precise figures for August production from all Texas HUD Code MH producers
- If so, then why not produce that data as part of the report? Wouldn’t that make it more informative?
- That is not sentiment. That opening line says production “Texas’ housing manufacturers slowed production for the second straight month…”
To add some color from a publicly traded firm that includes Texas production that I referred to previously, this from Cavco’s CEO Bill Boor in their last earnings call. It will give you and your colleagues additional data that is supposed to be accurate at the time it is shared by a public firm.
Certainly, some would-be buyers are getting priced out of ownership in the near-term, however, they still need homes. Community operators, who continue to have aggressive growth plans, are providing a solution with single-family manufactured housing rental homes.
So, shipments are strong. There are still some constraints in retail and placing homes. And that’s kind of caused a continuation of the inventory back up at retail. So — and it’s hard to give you a great feel for the numbers. I would say that orders are certainly off the highs that we’ve been experiencing, but they’re probably more on a par with kind of pre-pandemic levels with appropriate seasonality.
So, we feel pretty good about it. The one thing I mentioned in my comments that I think is an important point to get as people are trying to gauge the health of the market. I view that the strong retail traffic is still a positive, even if we’re going through a little bit of an adjustment with the retail inventories.
…Yes. That’s — I mean, communities are a real source of strength right now. I haven’t seen any sitting on the hands with regard to the communities, they’re still looking to get more homes. We’ve talked to this in the past, if you — just a little bit of the history because I think it’s important.
…The communities still have very aggressive growth plans. They’ve got capital behind them. They’re not as sensitive in their purchasing to the interest rate changes that we’ve seen. And tried to make this point in my comments as well, they’re really a solution to what is going on for the buyer, right?
As mortgage rates and the monthly cost of buying have really gone up and made it very difficult for some people to purchase. The communities are very heavily into the rental business and so they’re buying manufactured homes, placing them in the communities for rent.
And that’s a solution for that family that can’t purchase but still needs a home. So, I really expect communities to be a source of strength for the business going forward, and they’re not showing any signs of slowing down that I see. …”
During an earnings call, as I remember, made it sound like any drop off from retailers was being picked up by communities. The above doesn’t quite say that, but it is close to it.
Part of my point is this. Knowing that communities are to some degree picking up the retail slack, why would producers mind a drop at the retail order level if MHCs are making up the difference?
Do you see the logical questions that such facts and apparently competing claims raise?”
That well-placed source that facilitated the previous quoted statement on background replied as follows.
Yes. I see your points. Well stated.”
Note that some of the inquiries were not responded to, but the polite reply and the “Well stated” speaks volumes.
Those questions are thus apt for inquiry for publicly traded firms, TRERC, TMHA, MHI, and their dominating brands, regulators or public officials. Why the later? Because an attorney tells us that there are antitrust, market manipulation, and other possible issues involved. While the Cavco-SEC issue is reportedly winding down, that is not yet set in stone. The Cavco/Boor remarks are from the source linked below.
Cavco Quarterly Results, Facts, and Trends Include SEC Suit Update, Manufactured Home Production Volumes, Financial Figures, Corporate Data and Manufactured Housing Analysis
Additional information relevant to this discussion is found in the latest September 2022 report on July manufactured home production and shipment facts.
While Conventional Housing Sales Slide, HUD Code Manufactured Housing Production Continues to Rise YoY in July 2022; plus Manufactured Home REITs, Stocks Update
Stay tuned to the one and only industry trade source that tracks the facts, asks the evidence-based questions, and seeks to continue to shine a light on those who need to be held accountable for their actions and inactions.
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MHAO, TMHA Facts – Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) May 2022 State-By-State Singles, Multi-Sectionals, Total Shipments – State Dips Despite Promo Videos; plus MHVille REITs, Equities Update
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Daily Business News Markets Segment
NOTICE: Based on feedback, a modification of our Daily Business News on MHProNews recap of yesterday evening’s market report is provided. It will still include our left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines. The macro market moves graphics will provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. Click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the escape or back key to return.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 9.7.2022
- Oil tumbles
- NEW JERSEY, USA – MAY 11: An aerial view of Phillips 66 oil refinery is seen in Linden, New Jersey, United States on May 11, 2022.
- Prices dropped sharply to $82.41, deepening a selloff that has brought relief at the gas pump
LIVE UPDATES Apple unveiled the new iPhone 14, and updates to the rest of its products
- Billionaire: The Fed won’t say it out loud, but it really wants a higher unemployment rate
- Water is in short supply. Markets should pay attention
- Reality is setting in for GameStop stock
- Target’s ace CEO isn’t leaving anytime soon
- Why Coca-Cola doesn’t want to tell you what’s in those weird flavors
- The UK is preparing a huge energy bailout that could cost $172 billion
- Kim Kardashian’s new partnership is unexpected
- Major League Baseball players union joins the AFL-CIO
- Serena Williams’ farewell match smashes ESPN ratings records
- Tesla’s ‘full self-driving’ isn’t worth $15,000, say many who bought it
- This data center in Japan is using snow to cool its servers
- Content by The Ascent
- It’s official: now avoid credit card interest into 2024
- Apple Watch Series 8.
- New Apple Watch can tell if you’re in a car crash
- Pedestrians pass in front of a Regal Cinemas movie theater at sunset in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2020. More than 7,000 movie screens will be dark in the U.S. this weekend as the Regal theater chain said it will shut down all 536 locations on Thursday.
- Cineworld, the world’s second largest movie theater chain, files for bankruptcy
- Starbucks’ Howard Schultz: ‘I am never coming back’
- WORKERS’ RIGHTS
- A UPS delivery van is driven long a city street in Garden Grove, California, U.S., March 29, 2022.
- One of the biggest strikes in US history is brewing at UPS
- Organizers still face uphill battle despite union wins
- Tesla must allow workers to wear union clothing
- McDonald’s is fighting California’s fast food bill
- Michigan Chipotle becomes first location to unionize
- CURIOUS CONSUMER
- A Tommy Bahama beach chair is seen during a sunny day in Santa Rosa Beach, Florida, in April 2018.
- It’s not just you. Tommy Bahama beach chairs are everywhere
- How America turned into a nation of snackers
- Stores have a surprising plan for unsold clothes
- The hidden makers of popular store brand items
- DeLorean’s new car looks nothing like the old one
Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax 9.7.2022
- Archives Letter Seems to Contradict WH Claim Biden Didn’t Know of Trump Raid
- Raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
- Trump Spokesman: WashPost Colludes With Biden Admin Over FBI Raid
- Trump Attorney Habba: ‘Impressed’ With Ruling for Special Master | video
Document Seized at Trump Home Described Foreign Govt’s Nuke Capabilities: Wash Post
- Classified Docs Add Complexity to Search for Special Master in Trump Case
- Video Report: Trump and the Special Master
- Trump: Latest Witch Hunt ‘Will Fail Miserably’ Like Others
- Newsmax TV
- Bernie Kerik: Memphis Kidnap-Murder Evidence ‘Overwhelming’
- Bernie Kerik: Memphis Kidnap-Murder Evidence ‘Overwhelming’ | video
- Rob Schmitt: Biden, Dems, Making ‘Power Grab’ With $80B for IRS | video
- Ron Johnson: $80B for IRS May Bring ‘Red Tsunami’ | video
- Norman: Biden’s Speech Not Presidential | video
- Palin: Ranked-Choice Voting Ensures Split GOP Vote | video
- Buck: ‘Mom-and-Pops’ Would Get Destroyed by IRS Expansion | video
- Mullin: Biden’s Speech Was Meant to Give False Impression of Strength | video
- ‘Astonishingly False’: Hillary Claim of ‘Zero’ Classified Emails Fact-Checked
- Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was mocked and ridiculed as a liar for claiming she had “zero” classified information on a private email server as she attempted to criticize former President Donald Trump over his clash with the Justice Department regarding material seized from his home…. [Full Story]
- New York State Ending Mask Mandates on Transit
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- Archives Letter Seems to Contradict WH Claims Biden Didn’t Know of Trump Raid
The National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) reportedly [Full Story]
- Fox News Host Speculates Trump Was Selling Classified Documents to Russia
- The media are buzzing that major Fox News personalities are attacking [Full Story]
- Newsmax Beats Fox News in Ratings During Trump Rally
- Newsmax was the third most watched cable network during the Trump [Full Story]
- Trump Lashes Out at Fox News for ‘Pushing’ a ‘Democrat Agenda’
- Trump Urges You to Read ‘The Return’: ‘Fantastic Analysis’
- After Trump Praise, ‘Return’ Soars on Bestseller Lists
- Dick Morris’ new book, “The Return: Trump’s Big 2024 Comeback,” [Full Story]
- Biden ‘Tripling Down’ on Anti-Trump MAGA Rhetoric to Energize Base
- So-called “election deniers” are apparently no longer the only threat [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- Many Americans Expect to Become the ‘Billionaire Next Door’
- Forget the saying about the hidden “millionaire next door.” Get ready [Full Story]
- Special Master Approval a ‘Win’ for Trump After FBI Raid
- Legal experts are hailing a federal judge’s decision to appoint a [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- Putin: ‘Impossible’ to Isolate Russia, Moscow Will Turn to Middle East
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said it would be “impossible” to [Full Story]
- Putin Mocks West, Says Russia Will Press on in Ukraine
- Decrying Ukraine War, Russian Soldier Seeks Refuge in France
- Shelling Goes on near Ukraine Nuclear Plant, Despite Risks
- Gazprom: Nord Stream 1 Resumption Depends on Siemens Energy
- Shelling Damages Zaporizhzhia Nuke Plant’s Backup Power Line: Energy Agency
- Fed’s Brainard: Rates to Rise Higher, Stay Elevated Longer
- The Federal Reserve will need to continue lifting its short-term [Full Story]
- US Power Use to Reach Record High in 2022
- S. power consumption will rise to a record high in 2022 due to [Full Story]
- Texas Judge’s Ruling Endangers HIV Drug Coverage, More, For 150 Million
- A Texas judge on Wednesday ruled that employers don’t need to provide [Full Story]
- Biden Admin to Deploy Harm Reduction Kiosks in Rural Kentucky
- President Joe Biden’s administration will launch a project to test [Full Story]
- Air Force Wages Cut Amid Budget Challenges
- Enlisted airmen who toil in some of the Air Force’s most difficult [Full Story]
- Apple Unveils New Watches; iPhone Upgrades Expected
- Apple Inc. on Wednesday showed a trio of new Apple Watches, including [Full Story]
- Poll: Biden Speech ‘Dangerous Escalation,’ Majority Says
- President Joe Biden’s speech in Philadelphia on Thursday in which he [Full Story]
- Rasmussen: Majority Says Hunter Laptop Still Important
- Hunter Biden’s laptop with emails that exposed possible improprieties [Full Story]
- AARP Poll: Crist Trails Gov. DeSantis by Just 3 Points
- Charlie Crist, D-Fla., trails Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in [Full Story]
- Latest US Congressional Delegation Arrives in Taiwan
- A delegation of U.S. lawmakers arrived in Taiwan Wednesday on a [Full Story]
- Judge Lets Musk Include Whistleblower in Twitter Lawsuit
- A U.S. judge permitted Elon Musk to amend his complaint against [Full Story]
- Majority of New Yorkers Back Biden’s Student-Loan Forgiveness Plan
- A solid majority of New Yorkers back President Joe Biden’s recent [Full Story]
- Arizona AG Candidate Continues to Support Trump, Conservative Ideals
- The Republican nominee for Arizona attorney general has refused to [Full Story]
- US Trade Deficit Narrows in July; Exports at Record High
- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in July as exports hit a record high, [Full Story]
- US Envoy Thomas Nides: We Will Not Tie Israel’s Hands Against Iran
- United States Ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides reiterated Wednesday [Full Story]
- US Expands Monkeypox Vaccine, Drug Distribution Through AmerisourceBergen Contract
- The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on Tuesday [Full Story]
- Putin: Truss Election as British Leader ‘Far From Democratic’
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that the way [Full Story]
- Barack and Michelle Obama Return to the White House for Portrait Unveilings
- Barack Obama and his wife, former first lady Michelle Obama, return [Full Story]
- Report: Steve Bannon Faces State Indictment in New York
- Steve Bannon, a prominent associate of former President Donald Trump, [Full Story]
- Anti-Russian Language Law Hits Ukraine Christian Radio
- A Christian radio station based in Odesa, Ukraine, is moving out of [Full Story]
- Hillary Clinton Is a ‘No’ on Running for President Again
- Hillary Clinton is hanging up the gloves, revealing to CBS Evening [Full Story]
- More Newsfront
- Twitter to Expand Community Fact-Checker ‘Birdwatch’
- Twitter Inc. will expand its community fact-checking project called Birdwatch, the social media company said on Wednesday, deepening its novel approach to a new form of content moderation…. [Full Story]
- Globalstar Shares Soar on Satellite Deal with Apple
- Starbucks Loses Appeal, Will Rehire 7 Fired Memphis Workers
- Netflix Looks to Amazon to Control Cloud Computing Costs
- WHO: COVID Cases Drop Everywhere, but Pandemic Not over
- More Finance
- New Omicron Booster Shots Widely Available in US This Week
- New COVID-19 boosters aimed at fighting currently circulating variants of the coronavirus will be widely available this week, U.S. health officials said on Tuesday, adding that the vaccine is moving closer to an annual jab, as with flu shots. By the end of this week, 90% of…… [Full Story]
- Nearly 1 in 4 Young Adults Sought Mental Health Care During Pandemic
- Telemedicine Diagnoses Typically Match Those of In-Person Doctor Visits
- Walmart, UnitedHealth to Offer Preventive Healthcare Program for Seniors
- First Needle-free COVID Vaccines Authorized in India, China
- NOTE 1: The 3rd chart above includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the equities named above follow.
Triad Financial Services Q2-2022 FINANCIAL RESULTS, per ECN Capital – Several Bright Spots in Manufactured Home Market Highlighted, Including Communities, Retail, Land-Home, Floor; MHStocks Update
‘Blackrock Weaponizing ESG’– State AGs Probe MHCommunities Owner, Private Equity Giant Blackrock on Possible Antitrust, Securities, Fiduciary Violations, See AGs’ Document; plus MHStocks Update
Cavco Quarterly Results, Facts, and Trends Include SEC Suit Update, Manufactured Home Production Volumes, Financial Figures, Corporate Data and Manufactured Housing Analysis
Manufactured Home Communities (a.k.a. ‘Mobile Home Parks’ – SIC) – Exploring UMH Properties; Fellow Manufactured Housing Institute Member Yes! Communities Suits and Settlements; plus MH Markets Updates
2022 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
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Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
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That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
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