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More Mixed News on October 2019 Manufactured Housing Production, Shipment Data

MoreMixedNewsOct2019ManufacturedHousingProductionShipmentDataManufacturedHomeProNews
Still from video posted further below.

The good news, per the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) latest production data for October 2019 is that shipments are up year-over-year. The production trend, which means shipments too, are back up.

The problematic points realistically are numerous. But problems – properly understood and navigated – spell opportunities in disguise.

Let’s look at the data per MHARR and then turn to an MHProNews analysis.

 

HUD CODE PRODUCTION RISES IN OCTOBER 2019

 

QuoteMarkManufacturedHomeLivingNewsWashington, D.C., December 3, 2019 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), year-over-year HUD Code manufactured home production increased in October 2019. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 9,415 homes in October 2019, up 9.6% from the 8,588 homes produced in October 2018. Cumulative industry production for 2019 now totals 79,912 homes, a decline of 3.6% from the 82,942 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2018.

A further analysis of the official industry statistics shows that the top ten shipment states from the beginning of the industry production rebound in August 2011 through October 2019  — with cumulative, monthly, current year (2019) and prior year (2018) shipments per category as indicated — are:

October2019ManufacturedHousingShipmentsTop10StateMHARRlogoMHProNewsLogoManufacturedHOmeProNews

 

MHProNews Analysis

There are several problematic points and warning signs in the monthly and cumulative data reports from MHARR. In no particular order of importance are the following.

  • As was noted in our report last night, the number one production and shipment state of Texas is still well below their 2018 figures. For more granular detail on that state, see the report linked below.

 

#1 Texas Latest Oct 2019 Shipment Data, plus Manufactured Home Investing, Stock Updates

 

  • California, which has perhaps the highest demand for affordable housing is slightly down year over year as well.
  • Indeed 8 out of the 10 top shipment states are below their meager 2018 shipment levels.
  • Manufactured home professionals, investors, policy wonks, and other affordable housing advocates must keep in mind that as land-lease communities are steadily rising toward capacity, that in turn means that the opportunities to ship new housing units into those commercial properties is diminished. The counter-point to that claim is that there are some new properties being built plus there are older units that will need to be replaced. While both of those counterpoints are true, they miss the bigger picture that more land-lease communities are closing than opening. Furthermore, per the largest REITs data, the bulk of those manufactured homes going into land-lease are being used as rentals. The numbers of sales per property are embarrassingly low for large professional organizations.

 

Need for Workforce Housing Keeps Vacancy Tight and Rent Rising; Investors Eyeing Communities for Yield and Cash-Flow Potential, Says Marcus & Millichap Research, Analysis

 

Just the Facts? Mobile Home U, Manufactured Housing Institute, MHVillage, Manufactured Home Community Count?

 

Since MHI announced their joint initiative with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2018, which touted their so-called ‘new class of homes’ now dubbed “CrossMODTM homes,” that program has proven to be a failure. Reports are that only 10 such homes have been financed under that program in 2018 and 2019, per Government Sponsored Enterprises own data. Meanwhile, as they ‘promoted’ the ‘new class,’ mainstream manufactured home shipments declined. Coincidence?

 

DutyToServeImpactExaminationFHFAListeningSessionDec2WashDC2019ManufacturedHomeProNews
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/masthead/duty-to-serve-impact-examination-fhfa-washington-d-c-listening-session-december-2-2019/

 

ManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoMHILogo2018VideoStillManufacturedHomeProNewsFactCheckAnalysis
To see full size, click to download, and then open.

 

  • The need for more development of new communities to ease upward pressures on current and new residents, deployment of more competitive lending promised by law which is going unfulfilled, and the need to battle zoning issues by use of the “enhanced preemption” provision of the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act are some key areas of challenges that also could be opportunities.

 

IncredibleShrinkingZoningProblemManufacturedHousingAssocRegulatoryReformIssuesPerspectivesSept2019
https://manufacturedhousingassociationregulatoryreform.org/the-incredible-shrinking-zoning-problem-september-2019-mharr-issues-and-perspectives/

That opportunities exist is demonstrated by the thirst for larger companies to acquire smaller ones. But the purported throttling of good laws by industry insiders that if implemented might otherwise foster current and new ‘white hat’ operations means that consolidation continues. That it need not be so is demonstrated by firms like Nobility Homes or Legacy Housing.

There are decades of research that proves the quality of manufactured homes. There are third party studies that reflect homeowner satisfaction. There are interviews like the one below with public officials that debunk the mistaken notions.

 

 

So why has the Manufactured Housing Institute allowed those good news items to be drowned out by problematic news caused by their own members who don’t abide by their so-called code of ethical conduct?

 

ImpactCommunitiesFrankRolfeDaveReynoldsPhotosTaugtMobileHomeULogoManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoNationalCommunitiesCouncilNCCLogoMHLivingNews
https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/impact-communities-what-frank-rolfe-dave-reynolds-taught-beyond-mobile-home-u-manufactured-housing-institute-and-national-communities-council/
HBOJohnOliverLastWeekTonightMobileHomesVideoManufacturedHomeCommunitiesFactCheckMobileManufacturedHomeLivingNewsDBN
https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/hbos-john-oliver-on-last-week-tonight-mobile-homes-video-manufactured-home-communities-fact-check/

 

Competing and Very Different Narratives – Which One Is More Accurate?

The state of the manufactured housing industry could be summed up in distinctive narratives.

  • One is that of the Manufactured Housing Institute.
  • One is that of resident-focused groups like MHAction, GSMOL, NMHOA, Prosperity Now, et al
  • One is that of the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR)
  • Another is that of MHLivingNews and MHProNews.

As the listening sessions starkly revealed on Monday, the narrative spun by MHI does not match up with the claims of residents, MHARR, or our publications.

Study in Contrasts-Lesli Gooch v Mark Weiss, Manufactured Housing Duty to Serve Presentations Spotlight Lack of Proper Lending

MHI’s politically correct rhetoric masks a strategy that purportedly is fostering consolidation which harms residents, potential home owners by the millions, and smaller independent businesses that routinely take better care of their customers than several of MHI’s key members do, based upon mainstream and other news reports.

“I was Moved, Literally Crying” – Duty to Serve Manufactured Housing, Underserved Markets DC Meeting – plus Manufactured Home Investing, Stock Updates

The industry’s so-called leaders in the Omaha-Knoxville-Arlington axis – along with their key allies and surrogates have arguably turned good laws into problematically deployed ones. See more in the related reports linked from the various text-image boxes above and also below the byline, offers and notices.

RevDonaldTyeJrManufacturedHousingIndustryMHProNews

BloombergShipmentsgraphicBerkshireHathawayClaytonHomesManufacturedHomesDownYearOverYear2019vs2018
Since Buffett bought Clayton and other pieces of the manufactured housing industry, the industry is actually selling fewer new homes today than in 2003. How is that possible during an affordable housing crisis? Given Buffett’s assets, the BH Media Group, and some $128 billion in liquid assets, doesn’t it seem logical that manufactured housing is underperforming because that is what Buffett wants at this time?
UnderstandingWarrenBuffettCastleMoatMetaphorsQuotesDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews
Since Buffett-led Berkshire bought Clayton, the industry is actually smaller today than then. How is that possible, during an affordable housing crisis, unless they wanted it to be so?
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MHARRLogoPastChairmanEdHusseyJrPhotoStressesUrgentNeedForFullDTSImplementationManufacturedHousingAssocRegulatoryReformMHProNews
https://manufacturedhousingassociationregulatoryreform.org/mharr-past-chairman-stresses-urgent-need-for-full-dts-implementation/

MHI? Will you hold your own members to your self-proclaimed code of ethical conduct?

 

ImpactCommunitiesFrankRolfeDaveReynoldsPhotosTaugtMobileHomeULogoManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoNationalCommunitiesCouncilNCCLogoMHLivingNews
https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/impact-communities-what-frank-rolfe-dave-reynolds-taught-beyond-mobile-home-u-manufactured-housing-institute-and-national-communities-council/

Or is that code of conduct just more window dressing for those who don’t pay close attention?

 

MHARRIssuesPerspectivesIllusionOfMotionVsRealWorldChallenges
https://manufacturedhousingassociationregulatoryreform.org/the-illusion-of-motion-versus-real-world-challenges/

That’s this hump-day morning installment of  the #1 source for manufactured home “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (News, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary.)

SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach for MHProNews.com.

Soheyla is a co-founder and managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. Connect with us on LinkedIn here and here.

 

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CHECKLIST

Related Reports:

Click the image/text box below to access relevant, related information.

Retailer, Producer, Finance Exclusive – Interview with New Class of Manufactured Housing “CrossMod Homes” Developer-Seller

White House Council Requesting Input From Manufactured Home Industry on Affordable Housing Barriers

Surprising 21st Mortgage President/CEO Tim Williams Statements – “Lending Trends in Manufactured Housing,” Fact-Check, Analysis

Publicly Traded Manufactured Housing Firms – Which Source Do You Trust More? Why? MHI, MHARR, Others

Unique Opportunities for More Competitive Lending for All HUD Code Manufactured Homes

Mike Huckabee – ‘When Law Enforcers Become Lawbreakers’ – plus Sunday Manufactured Home Headline News in Review 11.17 to 11.24.2019

“White Hat” Manufactured Home Community Operator, MH Retailer Sound-Off on FHFA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Duty to Serve Manufactured Home Lending

Investor Alert – Manufactured Housing Institute Paltering Concerns, Fannie Mae’s Duty to Serve, plus Manufactured Housing Investing, Stocks Updates

Bringing Financial Balance and Increased Equity to Manufactured Housing Independents, Homeowners, Other Stakeholders, Including Taxpayers

MHARRWashingtonUpdate11.1.2019ManufacturedHousingAssocRegulatoryReformLogo
https://manufacturedhousingassociationregulatoryreform.org/mharr-washington-update-november-1-2019-mhcc-being-undermined-by-hud-manipulation-fhfa-shocker-gses-in-compliance-with-gutted-dts/
AffordableHousingNeededCorpCorruptionManufacturedHomesTimeGetFederalOfficialsFullyInvolvedMHLivingNews
https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/affordable-housing-needed-corporate-corruption-and-manufactured-homes-time-to-get-federal-officials-fully-involved/

Cavco, Sun, ELS Public Statements Point to Problems for MHI, Fannie, Freddie – Public Officials, Investor, Advocates, Professionals Alerts

Clayton Homes Exposé – Wall Street Journal, MHVillage, MHInsider, and Statistical Surveys Contradict Clayton Claims – Evidence, Fact Check, Analysis

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