As industry veterans with several decades of experience of knowledge of history know, for decades what was bad for mainstream conventional housing was a good indicator for an increase in manufactured home sales. That is why the report from Fannie Mae offers a potential for growth, “IF” industry leaders  or local entrepreneurial efforts – make it so. The headline and the prospects Washington, D.C. based Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group provided the following press release to MHProNews. It will be followed by additional related information, analysis, and commentary.

 

Softening HPSI May Portend Slower Housing Market in 2022

Affordability Expected to Be a Growing Challenge for Potential Homebuyers

WASHINGTON, DC – January 7, 2022 – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index^® (HPSI) decreased 0.5 points to 74.2 in December, as consumers continued to report substantially divergent views of homebuying and home-selling conditions. Overall, three of the index’s six components decreased month over month. In December, 76% of respondents reported that it’s a good time to sell a home, compared to the survey record-low 26% of consumers who reported that it’s a good time to buy. By comparison, in December 2020, 50% of respondents believed it was a good time to sell, while 52% believed it was a good time to buy. Year over year, the full index is up 0.2 points.

“The HPSI’s underlying components changed dramatically in the last 12 months – particularly the two related to homebuying and home-selling sentiment – and we have seen the index drift slightly downward since March 2021, an indication that the housing market may begin to soften in the coming year,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Over the past year, low mortgage rates plus government stimulus programs helped increase mortgage demand, but the bidding-up of homes increased prices to record levels, making affordability a greater constraint for both first-time and move-up homebuyers. Among homeowners, the ‘good time to buy’ sentiment fell 30 percentage points over the past year to its current level of 30%; for renters it fell from 37% to 21%. Even though demand remains strong, a majority of consumers clearly have reservations about purchasing a home at current prices.”

Duncan continued: “We currently expect mortgage rates to continue to drift modestly upward through year end, despite inflation concerns, which will likely compound the affordability concerns expressed by consumers in the HPSI. Recent MBS issuance data indicating a rise in average debt-to-income levels also backstop that concern, suggesting additional affordability constraints. Combined with our survey results showing rising expectations for higher rent prices among consumers, we believe some would-be renters may look to accelerate their home purchase timeline, helping to drive continued strong (though decelerating) home price growth. We do expect an increase in new homes to come to market later in 2022, which should provide some supply relief; however, it may not be enough to meaningfully affect home prices. As such, affordability is likely to be a growing challenge over the coming year.”

Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in December by 0.5 points to 74.2. The HPSI is up 0.2 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.

• Good/Bad Time to Buy:The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 29% to 26%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 64% to 66%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 5 percentage points month over month.
• Good/Bad Time to Sell:The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 74% to 76%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell decreased from 21% to 17%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 6 percentage points month over month.
• Home Price Expectations:The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 45% to 44%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 21% to 19%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 28% to 30%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up increased 1 percentage point month over month.
• Mortgage Rate Expectations:The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 5% to 4%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from 58% to 56%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 32% to 30%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 1 percentage point month over month.
• Job Concerns:The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 83% to 82%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 15% to 16%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 2 percentage points month over month.
• Household Income:The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained unchanged at 23%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 13% to 17%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 61% to 59%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 4 percentage points month over month.

To learn more about Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey consumer attitude measures, please click here. ##

 

 

Additional Information, More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary

As Kevin Clayton said in a video interview linked here, a serious miscalculation by Clayton Homes years ago caused them to go bankrupt.  Kevin said that they tried to learn the lessons of that failure. That is precisely the type of attitude that all good professionals who have a long-term vision should seek to utilize. Failures and mistakes are not tragic, unless they result in a permanent defeat. Even a serious failure can be the cause for a later rebound, when lessons are learned from missteps.

There is, in a strict sense, no need for an individual business to rely upon others doing the marketing or other heavier lifting for them. Sam Landy, President and CEO of UMH Properties, aptly noted that it is up to each company to do their own marketing. Some companies with multiple locations give some degree of autonomy to the local manager to do their own marketing, because all single-family home sales are location specific.

That said, if the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) had done the job they claim, the work would be easier for industry growth. The fact that MHI leaders continue to duck, dodge, and attempt to deflect by “razzle dazzle” from accountability for their own words, goals, and failures should simply be noted by other industry professionals and dealt with accordingly.

MHI doesn’t deny that they have failed. That’s an important point. MHI et al stopped threatening MHProNews for our reports, analysis, and commentary some time ago. While that is not the same as an admission of failure, it is close.

Consider the short list.

• A) Kevin Clayton said in a video interview over a decade ago (2011) that the industry was ready for a promotional effort akin to the demonstrably successful GoRVing campaign.
• A1) Years before that, the Roper Report was supposed to be the lead into a national manufactured housing promotional campaign.
• A3) Other efforts before and since were touted by MHI and their related leaders.
• A4) After decades of talk and effectively no action (the Clayton and Big 3 backed MHI CrossMods scheme can hardly be called a national campaign to benefit all manufactured homes, since it has failed to get traction for even CrossMod^TM homes).
• A5) The bottom line, years of thunder, fury, hype, talk, promises – and no discernable good efforts or results.
• B) MHI claims that they want to see the “enhanced preemption” provisions of the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 enforced.
• B1) If so, why hasn’t MHI ever taken the commonsense step of using their legal resources to sue to get the law enforced? Actions speak louder than their words.
• C) MHI claims that they want to see more financing options.
• C1) Doug Ryan with CFED/Prosperity Now, called that claim into question. Ryan said MHI is allowing FHFA, Fannie and Freddie to stay out of the single family manufactured home finance market so that Clayton Homes and their affiliated lending benefits. While Gooch denied that at the time, years of evidence demonstrate the validity of Ryan’s allegation.
• D) The DOE Energy Rule appears to have MHI engaged.
• D1) But if so, why hasn’t MHI even mentioned the efforts of Democratic state attorneys general in weighing in against MHI’s claimed position?
• D2) There is both documented evidence and historic evidence that MHI has previously postured one thing, but has done another. While they can claim to hold a similar stance to MHARR, the fact that they claimed MHARR’s effort to buy more time as their own belies their creditability and is comic if it were not so apparently treacherous.
• E) In summary, MHI is apparently working for the interests of consolidators. Everything else is largely a smoke screen. They glad hand, make promises, but are short on delivery. The fact that they duck accountability for their performance may be coming to an end in 2022. Who says? Some well credentialed current and ex-MHI connected leaders, among others. Facts are stubborn things.

 

The more MHProNews/MHLivingNews fill the void on useful, positive, and authentic industry information and research does not take the place of authentic advocacy.

It bears mention that the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) has been stretching to fill the voids caused by MHI’s failure to do their claimed job. But MHARR is a producers trade group, not a post-production trade group. MHARR has gone above and beyond, but is unlikely to do more than they have been.

Accountability publicly – and perhaps legally – is in order. Turning a blind eye is not a defense, as the Maxwell trial judge and jury made clear.

By increasing our outreach beyond MHProNews/MHLivingNews in 2022, it will not be a surprise if MHI begins to feel more embarrassment and/or heat.

Additionally, there are state, federal and other legal processes that may be available to probe MHI and their apparent failure.

While MHI insiders have provided a periodic drip, drip, drip of some documents and information embarrassing to MHI and their ‘leaders’ to MHProNews, it is therefore reasonable to believe that some insider(s) will come forward with something bigger.

 

Mainstream and other media may at some point kick into gear and question MHI rather than ‘fluff’ them.

Until then, what’s new in 2022? MHProNews is bringing additional focus to the good news about manufactured housing. We plan to increasingly connect the dots to the broader public and media about the problems in manufactured housing and the apparent connections between predatory behavior and several key MHI member brands.

Stay tuned as the professional accountability project advances in 2022.

##

Next up is our business daily recap of yesterday evening’s market report, related left-right headlines, and manufactured housing connected equities.

The Business Daily Manufactured Home Industry Connected Stock Market Updates.  Plus, Market Moving Left (CNN) – Right (Newsmax) Headlines Snapshot. While the layout of this daily business report has been evolving over time, several elements of the basic concepts used previously are still the same. For instance. The headlines that follow below can be reviewed at a glance to save time while providing insights across the left-right media divide. Additionally, those headlines often provide clues as to possible ‘market-moving’ news items.

Market Indicator Closing Summaries – Yahoo Finance Closing Tickers on MHProNews…

 

Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 1.7.2022

• The big picture
• People wait in line to enter the hiring fair for the aviation sector organized by LAX (Los Angeles Airport) and SoFi Stadium at the SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California, USA, 09 September 2021.
• Confused about America’s job market? Don’t worry: Economists are, too
• The US added 199,000 jobs in December — the fewest jobs added in any month of 2021
• Stocks down after disappointing jobs report
• Quit your job? Here’s what to do about health insurance
• America calls out sick
• People desperate for Covid tests are turning to resellers online
• GameStop shares jump 20% on report it will launch NFT marketplace
• 6,000 miles through 7 countries. Why companies are turning to long-haul trains
• Papa Johns plans to open over 1,350 stores in China
• Taco Bell is selling a $10 monthly taco subscription
• Build Back Better isn’t a path to socialism. It’s an investment in our nation’s children
• In a turbulent year for theaters, Disney still won the box office
• Jon Stewart: ‘Harry Potter’ and JK Rowling are not ‘anti-Semitic’
• 11/19 – Union Square
• Shoplifting is surging across America with dangerous and costly consequences
• Apple CEO Tim Cook during a visit to an Apple Store at The Grove Friday, Nov. 19, 2021, in Los Angeles.
• Tim Cook’s compensation jumped to nearly $100 million last year
• The big picture
• Confused about America’s job market? Don’t worry: Economists are, too
• The US added 199,000 jobs in December — the fewest jobs added in any month of 2021
• Stocks down after disappointing jobs report
• Quit your job? Here’s what to do about health insurance
• America calls out sick
• People desperate for Covid tests are turning to resellers online
• GameStop shares jump 20% on report it will launch NFT marketplace
• 6,000 miles through 7 countries. Why companies are turning to long-haul trains
• Papa Johns plans to open over 1,350 stores in China
• Taco Bell is selling a $10 monthly taco subscription
• Build Back Better isn’t a path to socialism. It’s an investment in our nation’s children
• In a turbulent year for theaters, Disney still won the box office
• Jon Stewart: ‘Harry Potter’ and JK Rowling are not ‘anti-Semitic’
• Shoplifting is surging across America with dangerous and costly consequences
• Tim Cook’s compensation jumped to nearly $100 million last year
• Kanye West’s Yeezy Gap line just got a whole lot fancier
• Kanye West attends the 2020 Vanity Fair Oscar Party following the 92nd annual Oscars at The Wallis Annenberg Center for the Performing Arts in Beverly Hills on February 9, 2020.
• Kanye West’s Yeezy Gap line just got a whole lot fancier

 

Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax – evening of 1.7.2022

• Supreme Court Conservatives Question Biden Vaccine Mandate
• News crews wait outside the U.S. Supreme Court on Capitol Hill Friday as the Justices hear arguments over President Joe Biden’s private sector COVID-19 vaccination mandate. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
• Conservative justices on Friday questioned the legality of President Joe Biden’s vaccine-or-testing mandate for large businesses as the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in a request by Republican state officials and business groups to block the policy. [Full Story]
• 6: One Year Later
• Trump: Americans See Through Desperate Dems’ Jan. 6 ‘Sham’ | video
• Giuliani Blasts VP Harris for Comparing Capitol Riot to 9/11
• Fallon to Newsmax: Harris’ Comparisons About ‘Small Riot’ on Jan. 6 ‘Absurd’ | video
• Dershowitz: Jan. 6 ‘Stress Test for Democracy’; ‘We Passed’
• Capitol Police Officer Sues Trump on Jan. 6 Anniversary
• Aaron Babbitt: ‘Still Feels the Same’ a Year After Ashli’s Death | video
• Bernie Kerik: VP Harris Is a ‘Disgrace’
• More Jan. 6: One Year Later
• Newsmax TV
• Stephen Moore: Biden ‘Very Misleading’ on Jobs Report
• Stephen Moore: Biden ‘Very Misleading’ on Jobs Report | video
• Turner: Will Push Intel Committee to Focus on Outside Threats | video
• Ohio AG: Mandate Ruling to Test Presidential Power | video
• Steube: Dems, Biden Keep Jan. 6 in News as Distraction | video
• Comer: Biden Hasn’t Shown ‘Ounce of Unity’ | video
• Biggs: Biden, Dems Creating ‘Narrative’ Trump Organized Insurrection | video
• Ron Johnson: Over 1M COVID-19 Vax Adverse Events Censored by Twitter | video
• More Newsmax TV
• Newsfront
• Arbery Killers Get Life in Prison; No Parole for Father, Son
• Three white men who chased and killed Ahmaud Arbery were sentenced Friday to life in prison, with a judge denying any chance of parole for the father and son who armed themselves and initiated the deadly pursuit of the 25-year-old Black man.Murder carries a mandatory…… [Full Story]
• Judge Dismisses Sole Criminal Charge Against Andrew Cuomo
• A judge on Friday dismissed the only criminal charge filed against [Full Story]
• Former NFL QB Offers College Star $1M Deal to Transfer to Alma Mater
• A former NFL quarterback has offered a one-year, $1 million name, [Full Story]
• Overwhelmed by Omicron Surge, US Hospitals Delay Surgeries
• Hospitals across the United States are postponing elective surgeries [Full Story]
• Related
• Omicron Pushes US COVID Hospitalizations Toward Record High
• Citi to Terminate Employees Unvaccinated as of Jan. 14
• FDA Cuts Gap for Moderna COVID-19 Booster Dose to Five Months
• Moderna CEO Bancel Says People May Need Another Booster in Fall of 2022
• Congressional Watchdog Warns US Health Agency Unprepared to Take Over COVID Vaccine Program
• Rick Scott: Biden Lied About Vaccine Mandates
• Rick Scott is blasting President Joe Biden and calling him a [Full Story]
• Biden’s ‘Pathetic’ Diplomatic Boycott of Beijing Olympics Won’t Protect Athletes Abroad
• With a month left before skates slice the ice and skis hit the snow, [Full Story] | Platinum Article
• Blinken Says Solidarity with Kyiv Prevails in NATO – Ukrainian Minister
• S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a call with Ukrainian [Full Story]
• Democrats Trying to Block Trump From 2024 Run Are ‘Truly Frightening, Ridiculous’
• Democrats are working feverishly to prevent former President Donald [Full Story] | Platinum Article
• Mother of 5 Gets 3 Months in Prison for Joining Jan. 6 Capitol Protesters
• A North Carolina mother who brought her 14-year-old son into the U.S. [Full Story]
• Watch ‘Day of Outrage’ Expose Jan. 6 ‘Big Lie’
• Newsmax is pleased to announce that its new documentary “Day of [Full Story]
• Urologists Stunned: Forget the Blue Pill, This “Fixes” Your ED
• Supernatural Man
• Parents in Michigan School Shooting Lose Bid to Reduce Bail
• A judge has denied a request to lower a $500,000 bail set for two [Full Story]
• NY Gov. Hochul Mandates Boosters for All Healthcare Workers
• New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said Friday she is requiring all [Full Story]
• Sidney Poitier, First Black to Win Best Actor Oscar, Dies at 94
• Sidney Poitier, who broke through racial barriers as the first Black [Full Story]
• Texas Lawmakers Deplore Mistreatment of National Guard at Border
• Texas state lawmakers are concerned about reports that National Guard [Full Story]
• This Portable Heater Might Be the Least Expensive Heating for Florida Homes
• Alpha Heater
• Biden ‘Confident’ Fed Will Tackle Inflation
• With U.S. inflation high and the Federal Reserve expected to hike [Full Story]
• CDC Warns of Bat Interactions After 3 Rabies Deaths in 2021
• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday warned [Full Story]
• Sotomayor Hears Challenge to Vaccine Rules Remotely
• Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor is virtually attending Friday’s [Full Story]
• Biden to Deliver First State of the Union Address on March 1
• President Joe Biden will deliver his first State of the Union address [Full Story]
• Supreme Court Weighs Biden Vaccine Rules Affecting Over 80M
• The Supreme Court began hearing arguments Friday on major Biden [Full Story]
• Newt Gingrich Blames Pelosi for Capitol Attack
• Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says much of the blame for the [Full Story]
• Trump: Americans See Through Desperate Democrats’ Jan. 6 ‘Sham’
• Former President Donald Trump on Friday said many Americans [Full Story]
• Software Engineer Returns to Broadway to Save ‘Wicked’ From Cast Shortage
• Chicago software engineer and Broadway veteran Carla Stickler saved [Full Story]
• Bernie Kerik: VP Harris Is a ‘Disgrace’
• Former New York City Police Commissioner Bernie Kerik called Vice [Full Story]
• US Cities See Increase in Murder Rates: Report
• Homicides in many U.S. cities were up last year. Philadelphia; [Full Story]
• Capitol Police Officer Sues Trump on Jan. 6 Anniversary
• A Capitol Police officer filed a lawsuit against former President [Full Story]
• RNC Narrows 2024 Convention Host City Contenders to Four: Report
• Four cities are finalists to host to the 2024 Republican National [Full Story]
• Moderna CEO Bancel Says People May Need Another Booster in Fall of 2022
• The efficacy of boosters against COVID-19 is likely to decline over [Full Story]
• Three Men to Be Sentenced to Life in Prison for Ahmaud Arbery Murder
• The three white men who were convicted of murdering Ahmaud Arbery, a [Full Story]
• Rare Toni Morrison Short Story to Be Published as Book
• To much of the world, the late Toni Morrison was a novelist, [Full Story]
• Kazakh President Gives Shoot-to-Kill Order to Put Down Uprising
• Kazakhstan’s president said on Friday he had ordered his forces to [Full Story]
• SKorea Disputes North’s Claim of Hypersonic Missile Test
• South Korea dismissed North Korea’s claim to have recently launched a [Full Story]
• More Newsfront
• Finance
• Biden ‘Confident’ Fed Will Tackle Inflation
• With U.S. inflation high and the Federal Reserve expected to hike interest rates within months, President Joe Biden said on Friday he had faith in the central bank’s ability to manage price increases while ensuring that businesses keep hiring…. [Full Story]
• Biden’s Economic Challenge: Finding Workers and Goods
• Whiplashed Wall Street Struggles With Mixed Payrolls Data
• Where Are the COVID-19 Tests That Biden Promised?
• Dan Celia: In God We Trust – Timothy Funds Reach $2 Billion Milestone
• More Finance
• Health
• Some At-Home Tests May Miss Omicron in Early Stages of Infection
• The Abbott BinaxNOW and Quidel QuickVue – two widely used rapid at-home COVID tests – may sometimes fail to spot evidence of the omicron variant in the first days after infection, even when people are carrying substantial levels of the virus, preliminary research…… [Full Story]
• Omicron Pushes US COVID Hospitalizations Toward Record High
• New MRI Technique May Detect MS Earlier
• FDA Cuts Gap for Moderna COVID-19 Booster Dose to Five Months
• CDC Chief Says US COVID Cases Likely Have Not Yet Peaked

 

Manufactured Housing Industry Investments Connected Equities Closing Tickers

Some of these firms invest in manufactured housing, or are otherwise connected, but may do other forms of investing or business activities too.

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • NOTE: The chart below includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
                          • NOTE: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
                          • NOTE: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of  the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm.  Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.

• 

   

  

  • As 2021 draws to a close…Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21^st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory built housing industry suppliers.
    · LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
    · AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
    Enjoy these ‘blast from the past’ comments.MHProNews. MHProNews – previously a.k.a. MHMSM.com – has celebrated our 11th year of publishing, and is starting our 12th year of serving the industry as the runaway most-read trade media.

    Sample Kudos over the years…

    It is now 11+ years and counting…

    Learn more about our evolutionary journey as the industry’s leading trade media, at the report linked below.

    · For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
    · To sign up in seconds for our industry leading emailed headline news updates, click here.
    
    Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.

    

    

    

    

    That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)

    

    By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
    Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.