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Key Drivers for New Home, Existing Resales, and Retail Sales All Rising, Facts plus Manufactured Housing Pro Analysis

KeyDriversNewHomeExistingResalesRetailSalesAllRisingFactsPlusManufacturedHousingProAnalysisMHProNewsGallupConsumerMIConfidenceSurvey

Both Gallup and the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers have reported rising consumer sentiment in November 2019. First, the data, then the analysis will follow.

From Gallup is the graphic that summarizes their research as follows.  It should be noted that their methodology and graphic are different than that of the Surveys of Consumers.

 

KeyDriversNewHomeExistingResalesRetailSalesAllRisingFactsPlusManufacturedHousingProAnalysisMHProNewsGallupConsumerMIConfidenceSurvey
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The perhaps more notable data is from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers.

SurveysOfConsumersUnivMichiganNov2019ManufacturedHomeProNews

Despite impeachment, periodic talk of a looming recession, consumers have shrugged it off. Richard Curtin, the chief economist with the Surveys of Consumers, said consumer sentiment has risen to 96.8, from 95.5 the previous month. Per CNBC, that level of optimism has not been seen since the period between January 1998 and December 2000, when the index remained at 100 or above in 34 or 36 months.

  • Although impeachment proceedings occurred in both time periods, the current period is distinctive for the much sharper partisan divisions in the economic expectations among consumers as well as the wide gap in optimism between consumers and business firms,” Curtin said.
  • To be sure, there is ample reason for both optimism as well as pessimism, but not the extreme differences voiced by these groups,” he added.
  • Favorable evaluations of consumers’ financial situation are at a record high while household wealth is rising, the economist noted.

SurveysOfConsumersUnivMichiganNov2019ManufacturedHomeProNews

 

Why it Matters to MHVille Pros, Affordable Housing Advocates, Investors and Public Officials?

There is a variety of data-points that reflect why manufactured housing should be soaring. When incomes are rising, employment is up, and consumer confidence is riding near a 20 year high, those should all point to more new home sales.

MedianHouseholdIncomeGainsBushObamaTrumpCensusBureauFoxBusinessManufacturedHomeProNews

WhiteHouseCouncilEconomicAdvisorsUSunemploymentRateByEducationalAttainmentmanufacturedHOusingProNewsFigure2

Among other data points are the following recent reports.

CoreLogic SFRI Reports Low Rental Inventory Levels Pushing Rent Higher

Conventional Housing Starts Rising

U.S. Conventional Housing Starts Rise, Building Permits Hit New High, Manufactured Housing Insight

Research by a variety of sources point to regulatory barriers being an issue stopping more affordable housing in California, but elsewhere too. HUD Secretary Carson has sought to address that in part by promoting the use of more manufactured homes.

California Housing Crisis, HUD Secretary Ben Carson, and Manufactured Housing

 

Oddly, Manufactured Housing is Down Year-Over-Year?

Despite advantages provided – at least on paper – by good laws that should protect and promote affordable manufactured homes, the industry is struggling.

MHARRSept2019ManufacturedHousingIndustryShipmentsYearToDateYearOverYearTotalsManufacturedHomeProNews
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BloombergShipmentsgraphicBerkshireHathawayClaytonHomesManufacturedHomesDownYearOverYear2019vs2018

The powers that be in manufactured housing are often using double-talk like ‘destocking,’ ‘inventory shifts,’ ‘weather,’ or ‘a lack of FEMA orders’ among the reasons to explain the downturn. But upon closer examination, all of those fall apart for seasoned, reasoned industry veterans.

Why is Skyline-Champion Giving Cover to Clayton Homes? Profitably QUESTIONING Manufactured Housing Institute Leadership for Professionals & Investors

The broader question then becomes, why the industry is struggling, while the economy at large is rising? Why have non-industry professionals made a better case – for instance – on manufactured home lending that the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) has?

David Dworkin, National Housing Conference, Compared and Contrasted with Lesli Gooch, Manufactured Housing Institute on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Proposed Modifications to FHFA on Duty to Serve Finance Plans

Why is the far more affordable manufactured home industry struggling when the far more costly conventional housing or multifamily housing are rising?

New Data from ‘Swiss’ Independent Data Provider Casts Shadow Over Publicly Traded Manufactured Housing Institute Member Firm Claims

While the Manufactured Housing Institute touts their latest photo op, they routinely use purported paltering methodologies to deflect from the reality that the industry is down, that it benefits a few, because they are consolidating the industry at reduced valuations.

HiLesliGoochWhiteHousePhotoManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoMHILogoSaturdaySatireManufacturedHomeProNews
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/saturday-satire-and-executive-summaries-for-manufactured-housing-professionals-investors-advocates-researchers-public-officials-and-investigators/

The powers that be in MHVille are unwilling to publicly address those concerns. Why, if they are so wise and have so much clout?

Surprising 21st Mortgage President/CEO Tim Williams Statements – “Lending Trends in Manufactured Housing,” Fact-Check, Analysis

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The industry should be soaring, not soaring. Who says?  A wide array of data. That begs the question, why is the industry underperforming? To learn more about that, see the related reports, further below. That’s your second installment today of manufactured home “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © your #1 largest and most-read professional information resource, where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (News, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary.)

SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach for MHProNews.com.

Soheyla is a co-founder and managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. Connect with us on LinkedIn here and here.

 

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Related Reports:

Click the image/text box below to access relevant, related information.

Barriers to Entry, Persistence, and Exiting in Business, Affordable Housing, and Manufactured Homes

“White Hat” Manufactured Home Community Operator, MH Retailer Sound-Off on FHFA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Duty to Serve Manufactured Home Lending

Investor Alert – Manufactured Housing Institute Paltering Concerns, Fannie Mae’s Duty to Serve, plus Manufactured Housing Investing, Stocks Updates

Unique Opportunities for More Competitive Lending for All HUD Code Manufactured Homes

Cavco, Sun, ELS Public Statements Point to Problems for MHI, Fannie, Freddie – Public Officials, Investor, Advocates, Professionals Alerts

MHARR Fingers Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHFA – “Profoundly False” “Misleading” – Duty to Serve Manufactured Housing Revised Plans

Paul Barretto, Sr. Manager Fannie Mae, Manufactured Housing Initiatives, FHFA Lobbying Regulations, Duty to Serve, and Manufactured Housing Institute

MHARRWashingtonUpdate11.1.2019ManufacturedHousingAssocRegulatoryReformLogo
https://manufacturedhousingassociationregulatoryreform.org/mharr-washington-update-november-1-2019-mhcc-being-undermined-by-hud-manipulation-fhfa-shocker-gses-in-compliance-with-gutted-dts/

Saturday Satire and Executive Summaries for Manufactured Housing Professionals, Investors, Advocates, Researchers, Public Officials, and Investigators

There are times we strive to serve meat and potatoes, which the dictionary defines as ” ordinary but fundamental things; basic ingredients.” But there are other times that we dive deeper into the issues that are pressing – say, towards a deadline. Yesterday was such a day.

 

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