The AEI Housing Center’s Tobias Peter, Director of Research, plus Edward J. Pinto – Resident Fellow and Director – established what they dubbed ‘Nowcast’ housing data.
As regular MHProNews readers know, Nowcast was initially weekly. But it has moved to biweekly because the AEI Housing Center said they believed that the trends have become relatively stable.
Here is how AEI defines their biweekly report.
“Nowcasting is the prediction of present economic trends using alternative data sources that are both detailed and high-frequency. This report uses real-time information…” on what is now an every-other week reporting basis.
The most recent Nowcast from AEI, provided on 8.4.2020, will be our featured focus below.
The featured focus segment of this evening’s market report is found beyond the left-right headline news bullets and 2 of our 3 market snapshots at the close today. The manufactured housing industry connected stocks are near the end of the report each evening, after the featured focus and the related/recent report links.
Quotes That Shed Light – American Social, Industry, National Issues…
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business
- Out of stock
- This illustration photo shows a container of Clorox disinfecting wipes in a kitchen in Culver City, California, on April 24, 2020, amid the novel coronavirus pandemic. – Top White House coronavirus advisor Deborah Birx shrank in horror and around the nation comedians sharpened their pens: President Donald Trump had just asked if virus victims couldn’t be injected with disinfectant. Even as a new poll shows most Americans wish the former real estate magnate would leave science to the experts, Trump on April 23 evening hit a new high in the annals of amateur presidential doctoring.
- Clorox says its wipes shortage is expected to last into next year
- Many parents may have to stop working entirely if schools don’t reopen, Goldman Sachs says
- Black-owned companies are shutting down twice as fast as other businesses
- Ford CEO Jim Hackett is retiring in October. COO Jim Farley will replace him
- Trump’s real goal is to wipe out TikTok, ByteDance CEO says
- Late-night hosts mock Trump’s possible US ban of TikTok
- With TikTok’s future uncertain, users are jumping to these other apps
- BP will slash oil production by 40% and pour billions into green energy
- One of America’s most storied brands is no more
- Amazon sold shoes using the N-word until a UK lawmaker complained
- NBCUniversal plans company-wide layoffs of thousands
- NEW YORK – JUNE 22: A saleswoman takes a box of Kodachrome film from a display June 22, 2009 in an electronics shop in lower Manhattan in New York. Eastman Kodak company has announced it will retire the legendary 74-year-old film that revolutionized color photography in the 1930s due to slow sales and dwindling demand in the digital age.
- How Kodak went from photos to pharmaceuticals
- Linda Rendle, President of Clorox
- The Fortune 500 now has a record number of female CEOS: A whopping 38
- Elephant Ventures has been working from home since March. This week the US team will start a 4-day work week.
- To fight pandemic burnout, this company is trying four-day workweeks
- BUSINESS OF SPORTS
- THE TITAN GAMES – “West Region Premiere: NFLs Victor Cruz and Stuntwoman Jessie Graff” Episode 205.
- Hail Mary: ‘The Rock’ buys the XFL for $15 million
- What it’s like to cover the weirdest NBA season ever
- The Nike ad that took 4,000 hours of footage to make
- Twitch is aiming to build an esports league for HBCU
- Baseball games are already getting postponed and that’s spooking Wall Street
- FALL SHOPPING
- People wait in line to enter a Gap retail store on June 22, 2020 in the Brooklyn Borough of New York City. New York City began Phase Two reopening on June 22, 2020 as people can eat outdoors at restaurants and barbershops, and salons can also open at 50 percent capacity.
- Clothing companies are missing their critical back-to-school sales bump
- Back-to-school sales could hit a record $100 billion
- Lord & Taylor files for bankruptcy protection
- Coronavirus canceled office clothing
- Owner of Ann Taylor files for bankruptcy
Headlines from right-of-center Fox Business
- Larry Kudlow warns against Fed president’s ‘hard’ lockdown strategy
- “The country can’t take that,” senior White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said during an interview on “Varney & Co.”
- Stocks rally as slow coronavirus-relief talks move in ‘right direction’
- White House pushes back against Fed official’s call for prolonged shutdown
- Top CEOs warn Congress of ‘catastrophic’ impact if new relief is not delivered
- Governor signs bill allowing home delivery of alcohol from restaurants, stores
- WATCH: Labor union leader challenged on Joe Biden’s promise to create jobs
- Lord & Taylor was once my employer, here are all the things I’ll miss
- GROWING MYSTERY
- US Postal Service is urged to stop delivering mysterious seeds
- STILL SHINING
- Gold spikes to record as BofA predicts $3K price tag
- A PENNY SAVED…
- Study shows small biz workers beating the odds with savings amid pandemic
- OUT OF THIS WORLD
- SPACE BUSINESS
- Virgin Galactic unveils Mach 3 supersonic jet
- MASSIVE EXPLOSION
- Injuries, widespread damage reported in Lebanon blast seen on video
- MARKING A MILESTONE
- Study reveals how the workday under coronavirus has crept into home life
- NATURAL DISASTER
- Isaias causes deadly tornadoes, ‘life-threatening’ flooding along East Coast
- RACE TO BUY
- Microsoft could face stiff competition from US bidders for controversial app
- NOT BYOB?
- Airline asks passengers to stop drinking their own booze during flights
- BRANDS TO AVOID
- PRODUCT RECALLS
- These popular snacks may contain dangerous ingredient, officials warn
- POLITICAL PLATFORM?
- SOCIAL MEDIA
- Facebook removes pro-Trump ad aimed at Joe Biden, claiming false information
- THREAT EXTINGUISHED
- Passenger’s laptop bursts into flames aboard flight
- FULL LIST: FDA expands hand sanitizer recall to include over 100 products
- ‘IMMEDIATELY STOP USING’
- PRODUCT RECALLS
- FULL LIST: FDA expands hand sanitizer recall to include over 100 products
- STRETCHING YOUR DOLLAR
- PERSONAL FINANCE
- Here’s how much money Americans think they need to retire comfortably
- CASCADING EFFECT
- NY residents protest Amazon’s plans to build a warehouse near Niagara Falls
- TikTok could be influencing future American voters, yet ByteDance founder slams ‘anti-Chinese’ sentiment abroad
- FOOD & DRINKS
- Mac & cheese for breakfast: Kraft rebrands boxes for limited-time giveaway
- 5 simple ways to maximize your 401(k)
- Maria Bartiromo rings opening bell to mark 25th anniversary on Wall Street
- Sony Pictures sees $230M profit in second quarter, predicts ‘crowded’ 2021
- Democrats, White House signal slight progress on coronavirus aid negotiations
- CEO Jim Hackett to step down from car giant’s top post, replacement named
- Financial shot-caller: NFL superstar now equity partner of sports nutrition company
- Parents unhappy with school options assemble ‘learning pods’ for children
- Trump weighs executive action to suspend evictions, payroll tax
- Brother of Jeff Bezos’ girlfriend claims his reputation ‘severely tarnished’ in new lawsuit paperwork
- Planning to claim Social Security at 65? Here’s why you may need to rethink that
- Travel company Booking.com laying off 25% of staff
- Nearly 1 in 5 Americans is delaying retirement due to COVID-19: Should you?
- See where Lord & Taylor is closing stores in bankruptcy reorganization
- Golden Globes’ Hollywood Foreign Press Association hit with bombshell lawsuit
- SOCIAL MEDIA
- Twitter risks $250M fine from FTC over use of security data for ads
- BP cuts dividend as coronavirus speeds up push into greener energy
- Violent crime spree rocks Wall Street’s ultra-wealthy
- What to do with airline and travel credit cards amid coronavirus
10 Market Indicator Closing Summaries – Yahoo Finance Closing Tickers on MHProNews…
Featured Focus –
Where Business, Politics and Investing Can Meet
- Driven by ultra-low mortgage rates and a limited supply, national home price appreciation (HPA) accelerated to around 9-10%.
o This rate exceeds the rate before the pandemic, which may indicate the home price boom will likely continue due to low rates and heavy demand.
- In a continuation of the last several weeks’ strong upward trend, purchase rate lock volume for the weeks 30 & 31 rose 40% and 32% from a year ago, respectively.
o This provides further evidence that the worst of the near term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown may be behind us on a national level.
o As a result of the last weeks’ strong purchase lock volume, combined with strong volume in weeks 1-13, year-to-date volume is now running 21.6% ahead of last year.
Note: Due to the recent stabilization in rate lock activity and trends, we will be publishing these nowcasts every other week unless we observe notable changes to the market, in which case we may produce additional reports.
Using newly acquired data from Optimal Blue , a rate lock software provider covering roughly a third of the market, the AEI Housing Center Housing Market Nowcast provides near-real-time insights on the single-family residential housing market convulsing from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. While Optimal Blue data are used, Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter are solely responsible for the analysis contained herein.
After extensive historical analysis of Optimal Blue data going back 7 years, we have concluded that these rate lock data track closely those reported in our National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), which cover 99% of the agency market. As a result, today’s Housing Market Nowcast will provide an advance look at tomorrow’s housing market as today’s rate locks will become next month’s home purchases and mortgages.
Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Trends
Driven by ultra-low mortgage rates and a limited supply, national HPA accelerated to 9.8% in week 30, a new peak for 2020, and 9.0% in week 31. This rate of HPA is unsustainable and far exceeds the levels before the pandemic.
Weekly Purchase Rate Lock Activity & Mortgage Rates
In a continuation of the last several weeks’ strong upward trend, purchase rate lock activity continued to far exceed 2019 activity. This increase is in part driven by low mortgage rates, which have fallen below 3.0%. As a result of the last weeks’ strong purchase lock volume, combined with strong volume in weeks 1-13, year-to-date volume is now running 21.6% ahead of last year.
To analyze the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, we overlay 2019 data on top of 2020 data.
To see the entire report, click here for the download.
The prior AEI Nowcast data is above.
Related, Recent, and Read Hot Reports
Oxfam Report – “Pandemic Profiteers Exposed” – Small Businesses Slide or Fail as Giants Grow, Everyday People Harmed – ‘Usual Suspects’ Oxfam Names Include Ties to Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, George Soros
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Manufactured Housing Industry Investments Connected Closing Equities Tickers
Some of these firms invest in manufactured housing, or are otherwise connected, but may do other forms of investing or business activities too.
- NOTE: The chart below includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
- NOTE: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
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Learn more about our evolutionary journey as the industry’s leading trade media, at the report linked below.
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Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHLivingNews.com.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position, and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.