NAR’s Yun – ‘55 Percent Increased Payment Cost’ YoY Same Home, Housing Sales Dip Continues – Yun Fingers Biden – May 2022 Housing, Economic, Forecasts Data Pros Need; Plus MHMarket Update

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In the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., PowerPoint Presentation found further below, he used a same home comparison cost, interest, and monthly payment in 2022 vs. 2021. “Monthly Mortgage Payment for Same House … One year ago vs. Now” stated Yun’s presentation, “$400,000 Loan” one year ago today is about a $480,000 Loan. Mortgage Rate Principal + interest 3% rate is a monthly payment of about $1686 1 year ago. Today that “480K house at a Mortgage Rate Principal + interest of 5.1%” is a monthly payment of $2606. Yun’s bottom line is that there is a “55% [monthly] cost increase in the American Dream.” Yun’s entire presentation dated May 4, 2022 for a NAR housing meeting is posted further below. It follows the May housing data in the NAR news release, posted below. An MHProNews analysis in brief will follow the NAR’s latest stats and Dr. Yun’s PowerPoint.

Existing-Home Sales Retract 2.4% in April

May 19, 2022

Key Highlights

  • Existing-home sales fell for the third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million. Sales were down 2.4% from the prior month and 5.9% from one year ago.
  • With slower demand, the inventory of unsold existing homes climbed to 1.03 million by the end of April, or the equivalent of 2.2 months of the monthly sales pace.
  • The median existing-home sales price increased at a slower year-over-year pace of 14.8% to $391,200.

QuoteMarkMHProNewsWASHINGTON (May 19, 2022) – Existing-home sales recorded a third straight month of declines, slipping slightly in April, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month sales were split amongst the four major U.S. regions, with two areas posting gains and the other two experiencing waning in April. Year-over-year sales struggled, as each of the four regions reported dips.

Total existing-home sales,1 https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slid 2.4% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million in April. Year-over-year, sales dropped 5.9% (5.96 million in April 2021).

“Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we’ll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.”

Total housing inventory2 at the end of April amounted to 1,030,000 units, up 10.8% from March and down 10.4% from one year ago (1.15 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 1.9 months in March and down from 2.3 months in April 2021.

“Housing supply has started to improve, albeit at an extremely sluggish pace,” said Yun.

He also noted the rare state of the current marketplace.

“The market is quite unusual as sales are coming down, but listed homes are still selling swiftly, and home prices are much higher than a year ago,” said Yun.

“Moreover, an increasing number of buyers with short tenure expectations could opt for 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages, thereby assuring fixed payments over five years because of the rate reset,” he added. “The cash buyers, not impacted by mortgage rate changes, remain elevated.”

The median existing-home price3 for all housing types in April was $391,200, up 14.8% from April 2021 ($340,700), as prices increased in each region. This marks 122 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

Properties typically remained on the market for 17 days in April, equal to both the number of days in March 2022 and in April 2021. Eighty-eight percent of homes sold in April 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in April, down from 30% in March and from 31% in April 2021. NAR’s 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 20214 – reported that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34%.

All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in April, down from 28% in March and up from the 25% recorded in April 2021.

Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 17% of homes in April, down from 18% in March and equal to 17% in April 2021.

Distressed sales5 – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in April, equal to the percentage seen in March and down from 2% in April 2021.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.98% in April, up from 4.17% in March. The average commitment rate(link is external) across all of 2021 was 2.96%.

Realtor.com®’s Market Trends Report(link is external) in April shows that the largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Miami (+38.3%), Las Vegas (+32.6%), and Orlando (+30.7%). Austin reported the highest growth in the share of homes that had their prices reduced compared to last year (+6.8 percentage points), followed by Las Vegas (+5.3 percentage points) and Sacramento (+4.7 percentage points).

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

Single-family home sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million in April, down 2.5% from 5.12 million in March and down 4.8% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $397,600 in April, up 14.8% from April 2021.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 units in April, down 1.6% from March and down 13.9% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $340,000 in April, an annual increase of 13.1%.

“As we find ourselves in the midst of a massive housing shortage, NAR continues to work with leaders across the private and public sectors to help close this deficit,” said NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith, a Realtor® from Plano, Texas, and a broker associate at Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate in Dallas. “As the nation’s largest real estate association, we are urging policymakers to enact zoning reforms, homebuilder incentives, and other necessary regulations to help correct this situation.”

Regional Breakdown

Existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 1.5% in April, reaching an annual rate of 670,000, a 10.7% drop from April 2021. The median price in the Northeast was $412,100, up 8.1% from one year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest grew 3.1% from the prior month to an annual rate of 1,310,000 in April, a 1.5% slide from April 2021. The median price in the Midwest was $282,000, an 8.7% increase from one year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South fell 4.6% in April, posting an annual rate of 2,490,000, which represents a decrease of 5.7% from one year ago. The median price in the South was $352,100, a 22.2% climb from one year prior. For the eighth consecutive month, the South recorded the highest pace of price appreciation in comparison to the other three regions. Additionally, the South is the only region to report year-over-year double-digit price gains.

Existing-home sales in the West dipped 5.8% compared to the previous month, registering an annual rate of 1,140,000 in April, down 8.1% from one year ago. The median price in the West was $523,000, up 4.3% from April 2021.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

1 Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR benchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.

Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90% of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40% of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

2 Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90% of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

3 The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.

The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.

4 Survey results represent owner-occupants and differ from separately reported monthly findings from NAR’s REALTORS® Confidence Index, which include all types of buyers. Investors are under-represented in the annual study because survey questionnaires are mailed to the addresses of the property purchased and generally are not returned by absentee owners. Results include both new and existing homes.

5 Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s REALTORS® Confidence Index, posted at nar.realtor.

In April 2022, pending home sales were down nationally 3.9% month-over-month. The breakdown by region is shown in their latest infographic, below.

NationalAssocRealtorsNARApril2022DataReleasedMay26.2022PendingHomeSalesFall-RegionalInfographicMHProNews
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Yun NAR PowerPoint.  Click the link below to open the power point in a new tab.

2022-realtors-legislative-meetings-residential-economic-issues-and-trends-forum-lawrence-yun-presentation-slides-05-04-2022

 

Additional Information, More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary in Brief

Almost every Yun slide has useful data. Slide 26, for example, shows that existing housing inventory is still at historic lows. Slide 34 reveals a projection for a sales dip in total existing housing sales units.

The facts presented all point to significant opportunities for manufactured housing. But as usual, these opportunities are arguably mitigated by the abject failure of the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) to get good existing laws enforced. The fact that MHI is touting a bill to fight the pending DOE rule is laughable for reasons the reports linked below detail.

For any organization, there are – or should be – metrics for performance. MHI admits:

  • The Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (MHIA or 2000 Reform Law) is not being fully and properly implemented. Quite so, but then are they looking in the mirror as to the cause of that failure of implementation? With housing inventory at a low ebb, this is an opportunity for manufactured housing to ‘catch up’ with conventional housing. But zoning and placement barriers – which have been addressed by the MHIA – are a barrier to more sales. MHI can’t have it both ways. Over 2 decades later, MHI is still talking instead of taking HUD and/or local jurisdictions to court.
WilliamCBoorPicPresCEOCavcoIndustriesLogoQuoteButWeveGotGreatOpportunityasManufacturedHomeIndustryCatchUpWithBuildingQ2021mhpronewslogo
Bill Boor is correct in saying that the industry has an opportunity to ‘catch up’ – or even pass – conventional housing builders. But that opportunity existed 2 decades ago too. That means, that until the root issues are addressed, authentic progress will not be obtained. That noted, by addressing the root issues robust growth can occur.
  • MHI admits that FHFA and the GSEs have not properly implemented the Duty to Serve (DTS) manufactured housing lending. They admit that Ginnie Mae on FHA Title I loans is still slowed by the problematic 10/10 rule that limits the number of participating companies. Doug Ryan – affordable housing guru at Prosperity Now, and a supporter of HUD Code manufactured homes – has publicly said – in the words that follow – that MHI is failing to get lower cost lending as a benefit to Clayton Homes and their affilated lending.
DougRyanPicProsperityNowLOGOQuoteCapitalAccessClaytonHomesLWhyManufacturedHousingInstituteUnwillingCritizeExclusionChattelLoansBoostSalesAttractNewManufacturedHomeLendersMHProNewsLogo
For clarity, MHI has criticized the rule, but they have not pressed it in an effective fashion. So, Ryan’s point should be understood in that light. See his context and the full ‘debate’ context in the report, linked here. https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/epic-kevin-clayton-moat-rant-analysis-lesli-gooch-debate-defense-doug-ryan-charge-end-clayton-monopoly-over-manufactured-housing-breaching-buffett-berkshire-clayton-monopolistic-moat-method/
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https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/tim-williams-ceo-of-berkshire-owned-21st-mortgage-corp-and-manufactured-housing-institute-board-member-makes-stunning-admission/

The reality that several ‘new national post-production association’ notions have been publicly advanced in recent weeks is therefore no surprise.

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https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/cavcos-market-cap-fall-paul-f-marten-manufactured-home-pros-plug-new-national-trade-association-to-represent-advocate-for-disfranchised-of-our-industry-mhi-doe-mharr-regs/
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https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/announcing-manufactured-community-owners-association-of-america-finally-bringing-fight-to-manufactured-home-community-sector-of-the-industry/
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All such quotes should not be construed as a blanket endorsement of all that a person or organization has said or done. Rather, with quotes or other references, we apply the principle of separating the wheat from the chaff. There are good reasons to source insights and relevant comments across an array of topics and viewpoints.
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https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/masthead/manufactured-housing-institute-mhi-lashed-by-current-past-members-odd-defense-of-arlington-va-based-mhi-association-suggested-meeting-for-new-post-production-national-trade-group-considered/

Manufactured housing has been inching up steadily since the COVID19 fueled surge. New data should be out late next week. Stay tuned.

PuzzlingFactsWith14YearHighProductionWhyRelativelyFewManufacturedHomesSoldUrbanInstituteManufacturedHousingReduxMarch2022ProductionShipmentNationalStateRegionalDataMHLivingNews
https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/puzzling-facts-explored-with-14-year-highest-production-levels-why-relatively-few-manufactured-homes-sold-urban-institute-manufactured-housing-redux-march-2022-data/

 

Next up is our daily business news recap of yesterday evening’s market report, related left-right headlines, and manufactured housing connected equities.

The Business Daily Manufactured Home Industry Connected Stock Market Updates.  Plus, Market Moving Left leaning CNN and Right-leaning (Newsmax) Headlines Snapshot. While the layout of this daily business report has been evolving over time, several elements of the basic concepts used previously are still the same. For instance. The headlines that follow below can be reviewed at a glance to save time while providing insights across the left-right media divide. Additionally, those headlines often provide clues as to possible ‘market-moving’ news items.

 

Market Indicator Closing Summaries – Yahoo Finance Closing Tickers on MHProNews…

YahooFinanceLogo9ClosingStocksEquitiesBroaderMoneyMarketInvestmentIndicatorsGraphic5.26.2022MHProNews
“In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” – Warren Buffett. That begs a key question. Why don’t more people LOOK at the rearview mirror so they can learn more about the patterns that influence what’s ahead? Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.
DowJones-ManufacturedHomeCommunitiesMobileHomeParksFactoriesProductionSuppliersFinanceStocksEquitiesClosingDataYahooFinanceLogo5.26.2022
“Survey 85 Percent of Americans Concerned About Inflation, Credit Card Interest Up by 3.3” said a headline on Breitbart. ‘Core retail’ inflation was announced on 4.12.2022 as 8.5 percent. Some commentators are saying that the actual rate of inflation in the U.S. is more like 15 to 20 percent. As the value of the dollar erodes, that impact should be considered when looking at stock market performance. Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.

Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 5.26.2022

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  • Energy secretary: Biden ‘obsessed’ with lowering ‘outrageous’ gas prices
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  • The West united against Russia. Will its nerve hold as prices soar?
  • A worker wearing a protective mask removes rotisserie chicken from skewers inside a Costco store in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Wednesday, March 3, 2021.
  • What rotisserie chicken prices say about stores’ inflation strategy
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QuoteCantCallEverythingFakeNewsBecauseInformationDoesntAlignYourViewsDoesntViewDisagreeDoesntMeanInfoFakeFalseChrysalisWrightPhotoMHProNews

MHProNews has pioneered in our profession several reporting elements that keep our regular and attentive readers as arguably the best informed in the manufactured housing industry. Among the items shared after ‘every business day’ (when markets are open) is our left-right headline recap summary. At a glance in two to three minutes, key ‘market moving’ news items are covered from left-of-center CNN Business and right-of-center Newsmax. “We Provide, You Decide.” © Additionally, MHProNews provides expert commentary and analysis on the issues that others can’t or won’t cover that help explain why manufactured housing has been underperforming during the Berkshire era while an affordable housing crisis and hundreds of thousands of homeless in America rages on. These are “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use© features and others made and kept us the runaway #1 in manufactured housing trade publisher for a dozen years and counting. 

CheckYourFactsQuoteFollowTheMoneyQuoteSharylAttkissonPhotoQuotableQuotesMHProNews6
If it is true, then it isn’t necessarily bragging. By checking the facts and following the money trail, even on controversial topics, MHProNews has provided reports and analysis that stand the test of time. While others – including various examples from mainstream media – have published reports that later need to be corrected or modified in significant ways, reports on MHProNews in recent years have provided a routinely dependable resource for reliable information, analysis, and evidence-based ‘logical’ commentary. There is simply nothing else like it, which is why we have been and remain the #1, despite coverage that often vexes the powers that be in manufactured housing.

 

Manufactured Housing Industry Investments Connected Equities Closing Tickers

Some of these firms invest in manufactured housing, or are otherwise connected, but may do other forms of investing or business activities too.

                            • NOTE: The chart below includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
                            • NOTE: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
                            • NOTE: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of  the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm.  Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.

Manufactured Home Communities (a.k.a. ‘Mobile Home Parks’ – SIC) – Exploring UMH Properties; Fellow Manufactured Housing Institute Member Yes! Communities Suits and Settlements; plus MH Markets Updates

‘Announcing!’ ‘Manufactured Community Owners’ Association of America’ ‘Finally Bringing Fight To Manufactured Home Community Sector of the Industry’ – plus Sunday Weekly Manufactured Housing Headlines Review  

JohnBostickSunshineHomesRedBayALpicLOGO50thAnivCeleb1971-2021MobileHomesHUDCodeManufacturedHomesModularHomesRompThruManufacturedHomeHistoryMastMHProNews
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/masthead/50th-anniversary-celebration-year-sunshine-homes-1971-2021-from-mobile-homes-to-hud-code-manufactured-homes-and-modular-homes-a-romp-through-key-phases-in-manufactured-home-histo/
LeoPoggioneManufacturedHousingInstituteChairmanRVMHHallofFamePhotoBackStoryCavcoIndustriesLogoConsumerAffairesForAHouseBetterBusBureauBBBComplaintsplusMHMarketUpdates
NOTE: An update has been linked from this post that includes a reply from Leo Poggione. https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/leo-poggione-craftsman-homes-manufactured-housing-institute-chairman-back-story-on-cavco-industries-consumer-affairs-for-a-house-customers-better-business-bureau-claim/
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https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/industryvoices/marty-lavin-j-d-weighs-in-on-resident-complaints-of-predatory-behavior-by-manufactured-home-community-consolidators/
ConsumerAlertKristinBienWSBTMelissaKauffmanExSunCommunitiesResidentPineHillsManufacturedHomeCommunityMiddleburyINManHousingInstmemberSUlogosINYearsNegiligenceGreedyGreedyAnalysis
https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/consumer-alert-state-records-years-of-negligence-safety-violations-greedy-greedy-sun-communities-ripped-by-residents-manufactured-homes-dam/
SteveLawlerPhotoDeerValleyHomebuildersLogoDVLYLogoDeerValleyCorpAnnouncesMergerPlusManufacturedHomeInvestingStockUpdatesMHProNews
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/steve-lawler-deer-valley-corporation-dvc-otcmkts-dvly-announces-merger-plus-manufactured-home-investing-stock-updates/
Yahoo-ManufacturedHomeCommunitiesMobileHomeParksFactoriesProductionSuppliersFinanceStocksEquitiesClosingDataYahooFinanceLog5.26.2022
In cases such as Apollo, Berkshire Hathaway, Blackstone or others, manufactured housing may only be part of their corporate interests. Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.
    • 2022 Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
      · LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
      · AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
      Enjoy these ‘blast from the past’ comments. MHProNews. MHProNews – previously a.k.a. MHMSM.com – has celebrated our 11th year of publishing and have completed over a dozen years of serving the industry as the runaway most-read trade media.HowardWalkerEmergenceOfTonyKovachsPublicationsProfessionalsFilledVacuumDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews-575x399

Sample Kudos over the years…

It is now 12+ years and counting

Learn more about our evolutionary journey as the industry’s leading trade media, at the report linked below.

· For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
· To sign up in seconds for our industry leading emailed headline news updates, click here.

Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.

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That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)

CongRepAlGreenDeskTamasKovachLATonyKovachPhoto12.3.2019ManufacturedHomeProNews
All on Capitol Hill were welcoming and interested in manufactured housing related issues. But Congressman Al Green’s office was tremendous in their hospitality. Our son’s hand is on a package that included a copy of the Constitution of the United States and other goodies. Tamas has grown considerably since this photo was taken. 

By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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