Another Mark Weiss-like, Captain Renault Moment – “Shocked, Shocked!” – Fannie Mae Reports Consumer Pessimism Toward Homebuying Sets Record – and Sunday Weekly Headlines Review
A good turn of a phrase or image is proven to stick for some time. Perhaps that explains why the report on 5.7.2021 from Fannie Mae to MHProNews brought to mind the colorful recent Issues and Perspective image that the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) President and CEO Mark Weiss used to mind. When the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) continues to apparently fail at enforcing existing law and the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs or Enterprises) of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to largely flout federal law, a biting satire may be the appropriate response.
Fannie Mae somberly intones below that their data reveals that: “The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 53% to 47%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 40% to 48%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 14 percentage points month over month.” That ought to be a signal that manufactured housing should surge.
Indeed, in March, the data reflected that manufactured home shipments – after some 2.5 years of decline during an affordable housing crisis finally did surge. See that report among the headlines for the week that was, following the Fannie Mae data. But what other information obtained from the GSEs to FHFA make clear is that the surge in manufactured home shipments was not due to GSEs robust support of HUD Code manufactured homes. When single family manufactured home sales support is demonstrably lacking, then clearly it can not be the cause of the surge…
That brief backdrop is sufficient to tee up the latest from Fannie Mae, which follows. It will be followed by additional linked information as related commentary. The base graphics shown below are from the Fannie Mae report, which have had some MHProNews comments added.
HPSI Dips as Consumers’ Pessimism Toward Homebuying Conditions Sets Survey Record
Gap Between Homebuying and Home-Selling Sentiment Continues to Widen
WASHINGTON, DC – May 7, 2021 – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased in April by 2.7 points to 79.0. Four of the HPSI’s six components decreased month over month, most notably the component related to home-buying conditions, which turned net negative for the first time in the survey’s history. This decline was offset in part by consumers’ ongoing optimism toward home-selling conditions, which continued its significant rise from this time last year and has nearly returned to its pre-pandemic peak. Year over year, the HPSI is up 16.0 points.
“April’s HPSI reading appears to have been acutely impacted by the ongoing lack of housing supply despite improving economic conditions,” said Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Consumer sentiment toward buying homes reached the lowest level in our survey’s ten-year history; unsurprisingly, respondents overwhelmingly cited the lack of supply and high home prices as primary reasons for their pessimism. The decrease in homebuying sentiment likely indicates that some consumers, potentially flush with savings – perhaps boosted in part by stimulus payments – may be attempting, but failing, to buy a home due to heightened competition for relatively few listed homes. Notably, consumers in the household income range of $50,000 to $100,000, a range inclusive of the Census Bureau’s reported median household income level, showed a particularly large decrease in overall housing sentiment, and we know that the housing market serving the affordable segment has been particularly competitive.”
Duncan continued, “Conversely, consumer positivity regarding home-selling conditions nearly matched its all-time high, demonstrating a large divergence in perceived conditions between sellers and buyers, as measured by the gap between the two components. As has become standard discourse in the housing industry recently, increasing the supply of homes for sale would certainly help bring balance to this strong seller’s market, but unfortunately the most recent data doesn’t suggest that inventory is likely to improve in the near future.”
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in April by 2.7 points to 79.0. The HPSI is up 16.0 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 53% to 47%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 40% to 48%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 14 percentage points month over month.
Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 61% to 67%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell decreased from 28% to 26%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 8 percentage points month over month.
Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 50% to 49%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 14% to 17%. The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from 29% to 27%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up decreased 4 percentage points month over month.
Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from 6% to 7%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up remained unchanged at 54%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 34% to 33%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 1 percentage point month over month.
Job Concerns: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 82% to 80%, while the percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 17 to 16%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 1 percentage point month over month.
Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 25% to 21%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 15% to 17%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 56% to 57%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 6 percentage points month over month.
To learn more about Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey consumer attitude measures, please click here.
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Facts are not partisan. Facts are what they are. Facts may point to a better understanding of a partisan position, but that too is still not partisanship in the normative sense. The graphic above and some others can be opened to a larger size in many browsers. Click the image once to open a new window, and then click that image again to see the larger size. The graphic above and some others can be opened to a larger size in many browsers. Click the image once to open a new window, and then click that image again to see the larger size.
The report above in several respects makes a fine lead into the Sunday weekly headlines in review on MHProNews.
Several of the reports that follow come into sharper focus, based upon the latest data from Fannie Mae, which is along with Freddie Mac, are regulated entities – a “Government Sponsored Enterprise,” GSE, or “Enterprise.” How so? Because as an upcoming report will reveal, the GSEs own data reveals that they are not doing what widely bipartisan efforts in Congress legally mandated that they do.
Among the headlines for the week are reports that point to decades of federal regulatory failures. While these begin with a broader look at the national landscape, the then move toward specific ways each of those American snapshots are relevant to manufactured homes and the battle for more affordable housing. Because the nation is in a declared war. Who declared it? No less an oligarch than one Warren Buffett.
Postscript – Bad News, Troubling News and Good News…
Against the latest data from Fannie Mae – one of the federally regulated entities – several of the reports for the week that was linked above a should come into focus. in this latest example of regulated entities, the GSEs, proving that they are not doing what Congress legally mandated that they do.
Several of the graphics in Fannie Mae’s survey have political policy implications. For instance, consider the graphic below.
Facts are not partisan. Facts are what they are. But facts may point to a better understanding of a partisan policy position, but that too is still not partisanship in the normative sense. The graphic above and some others can be opened to a larger size in many browsers. Click the image once to open a new window, and then click that image again to see the larger size. There has clearly been a serious run of bad news since the COVID19 pandemic outbreak that reportedly began in Wuhan, China has swept the globe. But the good news? Facts are emerging. Those facts often point to the superior policy positions of the Trump-Pence years vs. the prior Bush-Cheney or Obama-Biden policies. Also, the Trump-Pence years are already revealing themselves to have superior outcomes than the first 100 days of the Biden-Harris era. With record borrowing in the modern era, Biden-Harris are beginning to fuel “inflation,” which is perhaps more aptly described as a devaluation of the currency. The value of savings is being eroded. The purchasing power of the dollar is being eroded too. This obviously hurts retirees as well as those with lower incomes more than others. Not only are current policies viewed as unsuitable by some experts, they are detrimental to the social and economic order too. Who is benefiting from this emerging trend? Consolidators and corporate giants. Who is being harmed? Smaller enterprises, along with tens of millions of Americans. The bad news, in an ironic sense, is potentially good. How so? Millions may come to discover the importance of good policies vs. bad ones. The graphic above and some others can be opened to a larger size in many browsers. Click the image once to open a new window, and then click that image again to see the larger size.
CNN is not a pro-Trump media outlet, but using federal data, this graphic from their news company reflects the upward trend of income following President Trump’s enactment of the tax cuts and jobs act. It is worth noting that Democratic President John F. Kennedy Jr. did similarly. Income and productivity also rose. During the Reagan Administration, former Democrat turned Republican Ronald Reagan cut taxes with a similar outcome as Presidents Kennedy and Trump. Facts matter. The lessons of the history of various policies should be absorbed and learned.
These facts ought to be an embarrassment to the GSEs and the FHFA. But they should also be seen as a hit on the increasingly obvious misses made by the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), as it relates to independents. Why? Because as the Joe Biden campaign website aptly observed, access is a form of currency. What did MHI do with their demonstrated access? Why do they only have video and photos to show for years of so-called lobbying on behalf of manufactured housing?
The Good News Is…
The March surge reported by MHProNews illustrates what this publication has been saying for some years. The potential for serious growth for manufactured housing is evident. The manufactured home industry’s capacity for growth is clear. The facts that were outlined in this report linked below served to show one of the evidence-based reasons why serious growth could occur.
But so long as so-called “sabotage monopoly” practices, described in part by Federal Reserve Senior Economist James A. Schmitz Jr and his colleagues are allowed to fester, the industry will be held in low gear. It is tragicthat human suffering is occurring due to the failed policies and practices of the oligarchs and their allies in government, along with their nonprofit allies, such as MHI.
Furthermore, as long as “the ruling coalition” described by Glenn Greenwald and others is allowed to continue to operate with little or no serious checks, millions will be harmed and kept from their piece of the American Dream.
The tax cuts passed into law by President Donald J. Trump resulted in a surge in revenues. Money that was ‘parked’ offshore by the wealthy was moved back into the U.S. Lower rates meant more revenue. Democratic President John F. Kennedy proved that, so did ex-Democrat turned Republican President Ronald Reagan. The federal government announced that record tax revenues have been received in 2021. Part of the problem is that we now have spending at levels under Biden-Harris that have not been seen in the U.S. during a non-war era. Facts matter, as does the history of various policies.
See the related reports to learn more. Because the real shock is that the usual suspects have not been locked up already.
Perhaps, just perhaps, the moves being made by pro-America First minded patriots that are beginning to take shape can lead to a recovery of the kind that would authentically cause an American revival.
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All on Capitol Hill were welcoming and interested with the discussion of manufactured housing related issues on our 12.3.2019 meetings. But Texas Congressman Al Green’s office was tremendous in their hospitality. Our son’s hand is on a package that included the Constitution of the United States and other goodies. MHProNews has worked with people and politicos across the left-right divide.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing.
For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.
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