While the ‘big boys’ behind the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) have, or should, the August 2019 new home production and manufactured home shipment data, most industry professionals and readers must settle for the ‘tea leaves’ that come from other sources that provide useful indicators.
What follows is from the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) earlier today in a statement to MHProNews. They won’t refer to it as the cautionary tale that it is, because of the ‘big boy’ influence in that state and so many others.
But the facts are what they are. During an affordable housing crisis, about a year since MHI proclaimed “momentum” in a 2018 video that they still surprisingly (LOL, how embarrassing?!?) have on their home page, the industry’s top producing and #1 selling state in the nation is reporting another year-over-year decline.
We’ll start with a word-for-word recap of their report, followed by some additional insights and information for the industry’s forward-looking thinkers.
TEXAS MANUFACTURED HOME SHIPMENTS MARKET ANALYSIS
Wednesday, October 2, 2019 9:45:00 AM
Manufactured home shipments for August moved up from July to the second highest total of the year at 1,418 homes. Multi-section shipments beat single-sections making it nine straight months in a row.
August’s additional production days over July tends to lead to large month-over-month gains, but there was a noticeable acceleration in single-section shipments and the gap between singles and multi-section shipments, which had been running wide for the last two months, narrowed.
The totals for both single-section and multi-section homes were below those of August of 2018.
Texas plants exported an additional 440 homes out of state and hit the highest total home production mark of the year with 1,790 homes built.
It was over 2 years ago that MHProNews raised the cautionary flag in the report linked below.
We continued to report on that nettlesome factoid in articles like the one linked below.
But it was 5 years ago that our publisher laid out what was coming shortly before U.S. Bank and another long-time stalwart in our industry pulled the plug on actively seeking business in the manufactured housing industry space.
We’ve heard for some time the whispers about the now announced closure of U.S. Bank’s indirect manufactured housing lending program. To protect sources, we’ve been unable to do more than hint before today about what is now a done deal. We didn’t have a date, but knew it was ‘coming.’
In humility, Tony Kovach has done a series of ‘mea cuplas’ in not recognizing sooner what MHARR called earlier this year the “Illusion of Motion” that emanates from MHI. That said, our track record of straight-talk, evidence-based, follow-the-money reports are head and shoulders over any other trade publisher in our industry, which may explain why our traffic dwarfs all others too. Preliminary data for September indicates another rise in MHProNews traffic. Who says? How about a rival publisher?
We’ll watch for the formal release of official August 2019 national data. Whatever it shows, you can count on this. For at least 10 months, out of 12, manufactured homes production and shipments were down year-over-year. The series of excuses given by MHI’s powers-that-be were only debunked among the industry’s prime trade media by MHProNews and MHLivingNews.
It was almost 2 years ago that MHARR said in a formal report that a new, post-production trade group was needed.
It was over 7 years ago that MHProNews said similarly. Nor were we alone, the MHIdea retailer group was floated previously too.
More later this week and then next week as the data evolves. To get additional details from neighboring states and last month’s snapshots, see the related reports, below the byline, offers, and notices.
There are plenty of ‘trade news’ that give you the Omaha-Knoxville-Arlington party line. But if that leadership was worthy of the name, the industry should be soaring, right? That’s your third installment of your #1, most-read trade media. The unvarnished facts are laid out for you here at your home of manufactured home industry “News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)
Submitted by Soheyla Kovach for MHProNews.com.
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