A new Gallup survey released on 1.12.2024 under the headline: “Independent Party ID Tied for High; Democratic ID at New Low” has stirred news platforms across the left-center-right spectrum. It has also served to confirm the importance of a report drafted the day before this week by MHProNews. That report said “Indies are up” with “Indies” succinctly explained an abbreviation for Independent. “Iowa-2024 Looms-AEI’s Levin said ‘Democrats Became Party of Elites Republicans more Populist-Anti-Establishment’-Indies Up-NYT’s Edsel-Dems ARE Party of Elites-Facts-Analysis plus MHMarkets,” followed on the heels of a different report that will be touched on shortly: “Categories Blue States and D.C. Dominate In–Lessons Learned From ‘Can Do’ Pragmatic ‘New Dems’ Matter to Visionary Manufactured Housing Pros and Affordable Housing Advocates-w/Facts-Analysis.” This Masthead will next hit some highlights from Gallup and then will turn to its significance for manufactured housing advocacy.
This article will include current events, and a look back at key moments in history, to help frame a better understanding of our times. Because every profession, every career, is operating or occurring in the context of political, social, economic, and other cultural events.
Per Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones, these are their survey’s highlights.
- 43% identified as independents in 2023, tying 2014 record
- Record-low 27% identify as Democrats, tying Republicans
- Republicans maintain slight edge in leaned party identification
- Ideological identification steady; conservatives, moderates largest groups
“Political independents continue to constitute the largest political bloc in the U.S., with an average of 43% of U.S. adults identifying this way in 2023, tying the record high from 2014. Independent identification has been 40% or higher each year since 2011, except for the 2016 (39%) and 2020 (39%) presidential election years,” said Jones for Gallup.
“Independents first outnumbered supporters of both major political parties in 1991 and have continued to do so since then, except in several years between 2004 and 2008. Over time, the increase in the percentage of independents has come more at the expense of Democrats than Republicans, Independents first outnumbered supporters of both major political parties in 1991 and have continued to do so since then, except in several years between 2004 and 2008. Over time, the increase in the percentage of independents has come more at the expense of Democrats than Republicans,” stated Jones for Gallup.
“Gallup asks respondents in each survey whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. The results reported here are based on combined data for each year, including interviews with more than 12,000 U.S. adults in 2023.
Independent identification was up two percentage points in 2023 compared with 2022, while there was a one-point decline in both Democratic and Republican identification.
Democratic identification has now declined by one point in each of the past three years. These declines, and the new low registered in 2023, are likely tied to President Joe Biden’s unpopularity.”
Jones also said this: “All Gallup survey respondents who identify as independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Last year, slightly more independents leaned Republican than leaned Democratic. As a result, a combined 45% of U.S. adults identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP, while 43% are Democrats or Democratic leaners.
The 2023 figures are similar to those from 2022, when Republicans had a one-point advantage (45% to 44%). Republican advantages have been rare since Gallup first began measuring independent political leanings on a regular basis in 1991. In fact, 2023 is just the third time Republicans have had even a slight edge, along with 1991 and 2022.”
In 2023, on average, 36% of U.S. adults described their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate and 25% as liberal. Ideological identification has changed little in recent years; the latest figures essentially match the averages over the past 10 years.
From a longer-term perspective, the notable change has been the increase in liberal identification, which was under 20% from 1992 to 2000 and in 2002 and 2004.
Gallup might find it useful to further refine this survey of Conservatives, Moderates, Liberals by creating a distinction between “liberals” and “leftists.” There is an argument to be made that not every leftist is a liberal.
U.S. political preferences 1991-2023, at present, the Republican/Lean Republican leads Democrats/Leans Democrats. Note that in 1991, Republican/Lean Republican was also higher. When Barack Obama was elected President in 2008 was the year that Democrats/Lean Democrat hit is peak, per this survey topic. After Obama and Biden were in office, their policy outcomes apparently drove down their party’s support.
Near the end of the Gallup report on their survey, it says under “Implications” the following: “As 2024 begins, the parties are closely matched based on political party identification and leanings. However, Democrats are clearly in a weaker position than they have been in any recent election year.”
Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and ‘Why it Matters’ Commentary
In no particular order of importance are the following points to keep in mind.
1) Like it or not, the political winds and governmental policies impact businesses which in turn impacts investments, employees, retirees, an essentially all of the ‘classes’ or groups in the nation.
2) On Real Clear Politics (RCP) at 9:21 ET on 1.2.2024 are these additional polling factoids.
|President Job Approval
|Direction of Country
3) Gallup noted that Biden’s unpopularity is hurting Democrats. Fair enough. But the two snapshots from RCP above tell an interesting tale. As much as people dislike the direction of the country (right track-wrong track), the ‘spread on that is minus 42.9 on the date shown. Yet, Biden’s job approval is only minus 15.7 percent? How is that explained and properly understood? Note that all of these observations are made from the perspective of a trade publisher who is independent but is also attempting to get the facts out to professionals so that reasonable people can not only see our views AND can form your own view based on evidence. “We Provide, You Decide” © based on evidence as opposed to pure spin or propaganda. That said, isn’t it odd that Biden’s job approval isn’t also a negative 42.9 percent spread?
4) The explanation for that may seem mysterious but is knowable. Dig into the facts and analysis provided from the two reports linked below.
MHProNews curates topics with specific reasons. While we don’t necessarily spell out the motivations each and every time, as a disclosure, it ought to be a given that readers here should know that we are true believers in the need for and benefits from affordable, durable and consumer-safeguard backed by federal law HUD Code manufactured homes.
5) The ‘powers that be’ in America have been probed by sources that span the left-center-right spectrum. It is important that individuals cultivate the skill to think objectively and ‘critically.’ As the Martin Luther King Jr. federal holiday approaches, this quotable quote is timely now and year-round too.
6) Martin Luther King Jr was nominally a Baptist pastor. But there is evidence there is evidence that he may not have been a Christian in the normal sense. King championed the notions of the founding fathers and cited the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution on numbers of occasions.
7) There is a genuine struggle underway in the U.S.A. It is political, but it is also social, economic, religious/spiritual, and cultural. Politics is downstream from culture, observed the late Andrew Breitbart. “It’s the economy, stupid” famously quipped Democratic strategist James Carville, who was a top advisor to the successful presidential campaign of William Jefferson “Bill” Clinton. Both had points. But Breitbart saw the importance of religion and culture. After some back and forth to correct some apparent glitches in its initial replies, in response to inquiries Bing Copilot said the following.
You are correct. Andrew Breitbart was a conservative American writer, journalist, and publisher who was known for his political commentary and activism. He was a proud and playful Jew, although not always religiously observant 1. Breitbart is known for his quote “politics is downstream from culture,” which suggests that cultural values and beliefs shape political outcomes 23. Breitbart’s website, Breitbart News, has published articles on religious and spiritual topics as they relate to politics 1.
Regarding James Carville, he is a lifelong Catholic and has mentioned that he finds it in the moral basis of Catholicism to “do unto others.” He also mentioned that there’s some gift and virtue in poverty. However, I could not find any information on whether he has mentioned culture and religious inspired morality as important to his party.”
> “And religion and religiously inspired morality were certainly a moving factor for the advocacy of Martin Luther King Jr. isn’t that right? Did religious and moral beliefs undergird much of what MLK Jr expressed, even if he didn’t personally always live up to all of his own teachings?”
Yes, you are correct. Martin Luther King Jr. was a Baptist minister and his religious beliefs were a driving force behind his advocacy for civil rights. He was heavily influenced by Mahatma Gandhi’s philosophy of nonviolence and his Protestant faith 1. King believed that religion could be a powerful tool for social change and that the church had a responsibility to fight for justice and equality 1. In his speeches and writings, King often invoked religious and moral language to inspire his listeners and to argue for the importance of social justice 1. However, King was also a human being and, like all of us, he was not perfect. He struggled with personal failings and made mistakes, but his religious and moral beliefs continued to inspire his work and his vision for a more just and equitable society.”
Not to go to deeply into MLK being a Protestant, that is open for question based on evidence, but much of the balance of what Copilot said is broadly fine. This tees up the next points.
8. Democrats as a political party are arguably outperforming in the narrow sense illustrated in Part II #2. Most people think the country is on the wrong track. That includes large numbers of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents. Nevertheless, in national polls and in numbers of battleground state polls, Joe Biden trails Republican frontrunner and deposed President Donald J. Trump. But the percentages Biden trails by is relative narrow compared to the wide gap of the national wrong track polling. What explains this?
9. The answer, once more, goes back to what Noam Chomsky referred to in a book entitled Manufactured Consent. Chomsky is a man of the left. His observations are arguably meant to promote his views, which lean socialist. But what Chomsky didn’t do is spell out that the Democratic Party has to a significant degree become the party of the big financial, big media, and big tech elites that authentic Socialists presumably would oppose.
> “What is the net worth of Noam Chomsky? What is the net worth of Bernie Sanders?”