New Home Sales Fall to 8-Month Low in June, Data Signals Trouble – or Opportunity in Disguise for Manufactured Housing?



Let’s start with what the bottom-line for professionals and investors should be in this new data-driven housing report.


The manufactured home industry demonstrably holds a key to America’s economic growth.  The need and market are there.

How so?

First, let’s look at the facts from the latest conventional housing data.  Then, the Daily Business News we’ll look at that industry spotlight.


Widespread Reports on Sliding Housing Sales

CNBC and Fox Business are among the mainstream media reporting that:

  • U.S. home sales dropped to an eight-month low in June.
  • Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell to an eight-month low in June and data for the prior month was revised sharply down, the latest indications that the housing market was slowing down,” said CNBC.
  • The Commerce Department said on Wednesday new home sales dropped 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 631,000 units last month, the lowest level since October 2017.
  • May’s sales pace were revised down to 666,000 units from the previously reported 689,000 units.
  • Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 10 percent of housing market sales, falling 2.8 percent to a pace of 670,000 units in June.





  • The median home sale price in Southern California hit a new high in June, and this coincided with the slowest pace of sales in the region in four years, suggesting that high prices are finally starting to dent demand,” said Fox Business.
  • Data Tuesday from CoreLogic showed that a total of 22,706 new and existing houses and condos were sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in June 2018. That’s down 1.1% month over month and 11.8% year over year.
  • In June 2018, sales of newly built homes (detached houses and condos combined) were 47% below the June average since 1988, while June 2018 resales (detached houses and condos combined) were 10.3% below the long-term June average.
  • The median price for all Southern California homes sold in June 2018 was a record $536,250, up 1.2% month over month and up 7.3% year over year. June 2018 marked the 75th consecutive month in which Southern California experienced a year-over-year increase in the median sale price.
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National Association of Realtors (NAR) and Making the Case for Manufactured Homes

NAR recently posted an article that headlined “Making the Case for Manufactured Homes.”  It pointed to an article that Scholastica “Gay” Cororaton, Certified Business Economist (CBE) produced.

“Market for Manufactured Homes,” Scholastica “Gay” Cororaton, for Realtor University, Analysis and the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI)

Her’s was a data driven dive into manufactured housing, that avoided some of the problematic issues found in the Urban Institute report on manufactured homes earlier this year.

Urban Institute Ask for Correction in Analysis of their Manufactured Housing Research, “Follow the Facts,” “Follow the Money”

Why isn’t manufactured housing selling more homes today?  See Smoking Gun 3.

Let’s not forget that Richard Genz, a researcher for the Fannie Mae Foundation, or that research by Harvard’s Eric Belsky – touted manufactured homes as quality homes needed to solve the affordable housing crisis.

“Why Advocates Need to Rethink Manufactured Home Quality,” Harvard, GSE, Genz, “High Satisfaction”

Manufactured housing professionals must individually and/or collectively disrupt the inaccurate information that keeps millions from turning to manufactured homes as the solution.


The Value Penguin report linked above reminds readers why the outdated notions about manufactured homes should be set aside, as flat-earth thinking.

Manufactured Home Shipments, State by State Breakdown, May 2018 Official HUD Data

So why are manufactured homes struggling at such low sales levels?  The charts in the column linked above reminds readers that historically, the kinds of housing market conditions that exist today would historically raise manufactured home shipments.

The logic of this statement by Lavin can be applied to a variety of industry related issues.

Doing so could spur $2 trillion dollars a year in added gross domestic product (GDP), per the related report research linked below. ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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