When consumers are confident, they tend to buy more.
“The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is based on the concept that if consumers are optimistic, they tend to purchase more goods and services,” said Investopedia.
“U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in April and new home sales increased more than expected in March, pointing to underlying strength,” said Reuter’s on April, 24, 2018, in a trend that has continued into the summer and fall.
Independent producers of manufactured homes have made similar statements, one that the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) has often noted in their reports.
So it is no wonder that all housing sales are rising, including manufactured home sales.
What the Consumer Conference Board reported for September, 2018 are near record highs.
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September, following a large improvement in August., said the Nielsen owned operation in a media release including the Daily Business News on MHProNews. “The Index now stands at 138.4 (1985=100), up from 134.7 in August. The Present Situation Index improved marginally from 172.8 to 173.1, while the Expectations Index surged from 109.3 last month to 115.3 this month.”
“The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch,” stated the Nielsen-affilated Conference Board. “The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 14.”
“After a considerable improvement in August, Consumer Confidence increased further in September and hovers at an 18-year high,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. She also serves on the board of the Demand Institute.
“The September reading is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions remains extremely favorable, bolstered by a strong economy and robust job growth. The Expectations Index surged in September, suggesting solid economic growth exceeding 3.0 percent for the remainder of the year. These historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending, and should be welcome news for retailers as they begin gearing up for the holiday season,” Franco said.
Reading the Trend Lines
As you look at the Conference Board’s consumer confidence graphic’s latest trend lines, consumer confidence dropped to its low in late 2009. Consumer confidence rose in the years that followed, but began to decline again in 2015.
Consumer confidence dipped to another low-point near mid-2016, but has risen steadily as the economy improved in 2017 and 2018.
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions held steady in September, said the Conference Board.
“Those stating business conditions are “good” increased from 40.5 percent to 41.4 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” declined marginally from 9.3 percent to 9.1 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was somewhat more favorable. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased from 42.3 percent to 45.7 percent, but those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased from 12.1 percent to 13.2 percent.”
Perhaps more interesting for some is the outlook that consumers have.
The Conference Board said that “Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook improved considerably in September. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 24.4 percent to 27.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen declined, from 9.9 percent to 8.0 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 21.5 percent to 22.5 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased from 13.2 percent to 11.0 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 25.4 percent to 22.6 percent, but the proportion expecting a decrease declined marginally, from 6.9 percent to 6.5 percent.”
The Conference Board is a nonprofit. From their website:
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. We connect senior executives across industries and geographies to share ideas, develop insights, and recommend policy to address key issues. Our mission is to help leaders anticipate what’s ahead, improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. http://www.conference-board.org.
“Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers watch and buy.”
What Could This Mean?
It is precisely because this reference is nonpartisan that makes it an interesting possible indicator for what lies ahead, one that differs from partisan political polling.
These are among the factors that could indicate that the so-called coming ‘blue wave’ reported by so much of the mainstream media could prove to be wrong on election night, November 6, 2018.
President Donald J. Trump has been touting his administration’s economic successes, which included the replacement for NAFTA, the USMCA, that was announced yesterday. He drew a packed crowd last night in TN, where he campaigned for GOP candidates, including Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn. “A vote for Marsha is really a vote for me,” said President Trump to last night’s enthusiastic crowd, “and for everything that we stand for. It’s a vote for Make America Great Again, that what it is.”
The full length rally is found below, which opens with chants of “USA! USA! USA!” Clearly, pride in America – confidence – is coming back.
Small Business Optimism (SBO) is also at record highs. See that further below, under the related reports, linked below. That’s this morning’s “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes, and Factory-Built Housing,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)
(Related Reports are further below. Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)
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