Businesses from coast to coast – including manufactured housing industry professionals – are keenly awaiting the outcome of the 2016 campaign. What was once considered a likely shift of the U.S. Senate from the GOP back to Democratic control now looks questionable, if recent public opinion polling holds. The House of Representatives looks solid at this time for the Republican party too.
The coin-toss question for professionals today is who will occupy the Oval Office when personally popular President Barack Obama’s term comes to an end?
A month ago, the talk was about the Hillary Clinton transition team and who might be in her cabinet. But that is no longer the case.
In the wake of concerns like her recent health scare, email scandal and the optics surrounding the Clinton Foundation, the polls are sliding for Secretary Hillary Clinton, and are rising for billionaire businessman and political newcomer, Donald Trump.
This is one of dozens of versions of video coverage available online, some video has emerged from a second camera angle showing Hillary Clinton being caught before she collapses. Clinton has since been pronounced well, but the fact that she concealed the truth about her health feeds the “she is untrustworthy” narrative. This version of the Clinton collapse video has been viewed over 1 million times. Will this image leave the minds of undecided voters?
Trump has become more message-focused and disciplined in recent weeks.
The shift occurred since his new campaign team of Kellyanne Conway – whom Media Matters quoted her saying that “political correctness has made us appoint people to positions they don’t deserve” – and Steve Bannon, the feisty Breitbart leader whom CNN Money called “a street fighter.” These picks the the success that has flowed since they rose to lead the Trump campaign feeds the Republican party nominee’s promise to pick the best people to do a job, and to politely say “your fired” to those who don’t get the job done for Trump…
Democratic strategist Doug Schoen, who is openly pro-Clinton, has said repeatedly that the core of the Clinton campaign strategy is to defame and disqualify Donald Trump. To that end, the Clinton campaign is prepared to spend perhaps $2 billion dollars, in mostly negative advertising.
But Trump’s new discipline and “more presidential” style – which included a high profile meeting with Mexico’s president, out-reaches to blacks, Hispanic, family and women’s issues and a string of pro-growth, religious liberty, safety and “America First“ policy speeches – has blunted the Clinton camp’s message that the man is unfit to govern.
The result has been Trump steadily rising in the polls.
Business Leaders on Trump
Jack Welch, the former GE executive whom CNN referred to as one of America’s most successful bosses ever, has said, “We don’t need uncertainty and (high) regulations.” Welch has come out strongly in favor of Trump.
Wilbur Ross is a Trump campaign supporter and a successful billionaire. Wikipedia describes Ross as an “American investor known for restructuring failed companies in industries such as steel, coal, telecommunications, foreign investment and textiles. He specializes in leveraged buyouts and distressed businesses.” In short, he turns around struggling enterprises.
Ross and others like Steve Forbes touts Trump’s recent economic policies. Along with experts and professionals who point to presidents such as Jack Kennedy (D) and Ronald Reagan (R) – who cut taxes and regulations, which resulted in spurring more investment, that created more net tax revenues and millions of new private sector jobs – that’s the essence of the Trump tax and regulatory plan.
Trump’s plan projects – 4% economic growth, 3.5% growth average, 25 million jobs over ten years.
But it isn’t only business leaders who support the working man’s billionaire.
A New York Times survey in the spring indicated that Donald Trump was favorably viewed by many manufactured homeowners. The newcomer to campaign politics has narrowed Clinton’s lead among blacks, Hispanics and women. He leads widely with men. Polling in battleground states indicates that the electoral map – which has favored Democrats in presidential politics – has shifted in Trump’s direction too.
Both major party candidates are wealthy.
But the Clinton’s estimated wealth – some say, perhaps $100 million – seems to be mostly from speeches connected to influence peddling. Meanwhile, Trump’s billions has been from business – which includes, Trump admits – his using the political system to make sure that his business interests were protected and advanced. He now vows to beat the system he knows, so that all Americans can benefit.
By contrast, the Clinton camp’s polices are that they will raise taxes, keep ObamaCare, strengthen Dodd-Frank and are taking positions that on the surface look to be problematic for businesses in general, and manufactured home industry professionals too.
These Clinton campaign positions, says the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) surveys of their 325,000 members, reflect the opposite of what most small businesses want.
“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time,” said honest Abraham Lincoln.
Clinton’s 9D Campaign
Duck. Defame. Dodge. Distract. Delete. Delay. Deflect. Dread. Detract. These summarize key elements to Secretary Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
It is far from settled who will win the White House in 2016.
If a deep political resume is the winning ticket, then President Barack and Michelle Obama are correct in their public statements on Hillary Clinton. Hillary’s resume is the deepest in years, more robust than her husband Bill’s was – and far more complete than Obama’s, as the president himself has said.
Honest and trusthworthy? Sanders supporters chanting, ‘she’s a liar! She’s a Liar!” 4o second video.
Popular President, Unpopular Policy Outcomes
The Obamas have hit the campaign trail this past week in favor of Secretary Clinton. They are a wild card in the 2016 race, because President Obama remains personally popular, even though his policies – and those which Secretary Clinton supported and/or carried out – have been proven harmful at home and abroad.
And the Obama’s were themselves the target of the Clinton political machine, a little over 8 years ago. But then-Senator Obama proved that the Clintons could be beaten.
Secretary Colin Powell’s emails were hacked, and Powell has confirmed the messages shown are authentic. He is a natural pro-Clinton ally. That makes all the more damaging the private messages which were leaked, because they undercut her honesty and credibility with those precious undecided voters. Powell’s emails may also dampen the enthusiasm for Clinton among black and other Democratic voters.
Democrats and Republicans alike have thrown hundreds of millions of dollars of attack ads at Donald Trump. In the wake of that, pundits are amazed that Trump has not already been blown away.
Even with all his politically-incorrect statements and slips, while he has dipped at times in the polling, but Trump has rebounded every time. Is there something to his claim that he knows how to win? Does besting 16 GOP rivals – many with deep resumes of their own, and against long odds – tell us the mood of a large part of the American electorate?
Is there a ground-swell – represented at enthusiastic and packed Trump rallies – crying for an outsider who will bring America back to lost economic growth, prosperity, upward mobility and national self-confidence?
Clinton’s campaign has been aided by a press corps that is tilted against Trump; symbolized by Univision’s Jorge Ramos, the New York Times, Washington Post and what right-wing Breitbart calls the Clinton News Network (CNN). Polling shows that the mainstream media is at or near the lowest level every since surveys of trust in media began.
Polls, Polls and a path for each to Victory
Polling has shifted towards Trump, as the following sampling charts and graphics reflects.
Debates? WikiLeaks? Gaff? October Surprise?
Will the race for the White House be settled by WikiLeaks?
Or will the race be decided by the upcoming Presidential Debates, the first of which is just over a week away? Those debates could be the most watched in history.
Will there be a long-term effect from Hillary Clinton’s calling – more than once – millions of Americans who support Trump “irredeemable,” and “deplorable“? (See video posted above.)
Emotions vs. Policies
Often, it is emotions that carry the day, not policies. That is proven by President Obama’s unpopular policies, yet he is far more personally popular than Clinton.
Ross and others tout Trump’s regulatory reform plan, which would free 2 trillion dollars in regulatory burdens, and thus help unleash small business and others in the private sector.
Trump’s repatriation plan, reducing the marginal tax rate, may bring $2 trillion to as much as $5 trillion dollars now overseas back to the U.S. to invest in ways that will create jobs through business, not government spending of borrowed money.
The “all of the above” energy strategy of Donald Trump will help him with union mining workers, with oil and energy producers too. The common-sense argument for U.S. energy independence could mean the nation doesn’t have to be as involved in trouble spots as the volatile Middle East.
Down to the Wire
There are still factors that could tilt the Senate back into Democratic hands, or that could make Hillary Clinton president. But the Mo-Mentum seems to be with an energized, Trump. Manufactured housing could benefit, says MH veteran Jay Hamilton in a recent opinion column, from having in the White House someone who has direct ties to the factory-built housing industry.
With just about 7 weeks to election day on November 8th, the outcome will be known soon. ##
(Image credits are as shown above.)