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Warning – Number 1 Manufactured Housing State, Texas – Reports Month Over Month Rise, Year over Year Shipment Decline Continues

WarningNumber1ManufacturedHousingStateTexasReportsMonthOverMonthRiseYearOverYearShipmentDeclineContinuesMHProNews

Last night, the Daily Business News on MHProNews looked at regional data that revealed 3 states with increases, but 3 others with significant declines in new manufactured homes shipped.

NewlyPublishedRegionalStateDataReflectsGainersLosersNewManufacturedHomeShipmentsMHProNews
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/newly-published-regional-state-data-reflects-gainers-losers-in-new-manufactured-homes-shipped/

Now, in our pre-dawn report, multiple tips from members of the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) provided their state’s latest – sobering – shipment data.

Quoting the TMHA, following the graphic below.

 

AnnualShipmentTotalsTXMHAManufacturedHousingShipmentsFebMarch2019vs2018MHProNews

MARCH

Manufactured home shipments for March moved up 4.9% over February. The month-over-month growth was aided by an additional work day and stemmed from a 10.5% increase in multi-section shipments which once again beat single-section shipments for the fourth month in a row. Single-section shipments slipped -0.7% from February.

We’re now past the point where the year-over-year comparisons for a single month should be substantially impacted by FEMA units and March saw a marked -26.8% slowdown in comparison to March of 2018, which was last year’s peak month.

Multi-sections shipments were down -9.8% and single-sections were down -39.5%.

While shipments were soft this month, the early data indicates that retailer sales expanded in February and titles issued thus far for March sales also indicate strong year-over-year growth for that month. We’ll be watching the titling data as it comes in, but It appears likely that last year’s backlog constraints led retailers to over order and build up a stock of homes in inventory that they are now selling from. If the year-over-year elevated sales continue, then shipments should pick up later in the year as those inventories decline.”

March2019ShipmentTotalsTXMHAManufacturedHousingShipmentsFebMarch2019vs2018MHProNews

 

 

Certainly, TMHA has significant influence from Clayton Homes, Berkshire Hathaway brand lenders, and the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI). Their staff arguably has the same “How Gold Rules” pressures that other state association executives have previously reported, see that, in the report linked from the text-image box that follows.

 

GoldRulesTimWilliams21stMortgageCorpDailyB usinessNewsMHProNews
http://www.mhpronews.com/blogs/daily-business-news/how-gold-rules-tim-williams-21st-mortgage-mhi-vp-state-execs-conference-call/

But the independent minded thinkers in MHVille need look no further than what MHI member companies that are publicly traded have said in their investor packets.

ManufacturedHousingIndustryShipmentsFEMAManufacturedHomesNotMobileHomesTrailersIndustryResearchReportsDataMHProNews
Credits, MHI, Cavco.

Skyline Champion (SKY) have said similarly.

3ErasMobileHomesManufacturedHomesManufacturedHousingImprovementActEraSkylineChampionShipmentProductionGraphicMHProNews
In 1998, manufactured homes (MH) outsold RVs by some 3 to 2. In 2017, RVs outsold MHs by some 5 to 1. RVs recovered far more quickly from 2008. The facts raise questions. One, is the effectiveness of MHI as the post-production or ‘umbrella’ association in the country. The other question is more sobering. Has Buffett-Berkshire “Moat” strategies kept manufactured home production at historically low levels to allow a few big boy brands to consolidate others at a discounted ‘value’ by MHI insiders?

There are clearly investor concerns at play, because both Skyline and Cavco are trading below where they were about 6 months ago. See those related reports, below.

Facts matter.  During an affordable housing crisis, there certainly could be some variation, but the rise in shipments could be much stronger than it has been.  See the related reports to better understand the various forces at play that arguably are artificially limiting manufactured housing – often from within.

 

Multibillion Dollar Opportunities Knock in Solving Affordable Housing Crisis – Masthead L. A. ‘Tony’ Kovach

In a truly free enterprise system, various needs are identified. Then a means of profitably yet honestly serving those needs are established. Ideally, both the customer and product/service benefit. The happy customer(s) then tell or send their friends. That pattern repeated often enough yields success. For millions, perception is reality.

 

That’s this morning’s pre-dawn episode of “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

 

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Submitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com.

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