Big-picture focused manufactured home pros should find the latest data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau to be of keen interest as the latest reality check.
The official press release from HUD and the Census Bureau to the Daily Business News on MHProNews is followed by a brief analysis of the data.
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for November 2018
New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in November 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000. This is 16.9 percent (±19.9 percent)* above the revised October rate of 562,000 and is 7.7 percent (±20.7 percent)* below the November 2017 estimate of 712,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2018 was $302,400. The average sales price was $362,400.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 330,000. This represents a supply of 6.0 months at the current sales rate.
In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take three months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, six months for total starts, and six months for total completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2 percent) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percentage change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percentage changes are 90 percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percentage changes shown in the tables. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing starts and housing completions are revised 3 percent or less/
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. In such cases, there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
### End of HUD/Census Bureau Press Release
Facts are #NettlesomeThings. Nettles, properly understood, can both sting but also have a medicinal element that can be used to bring healing. That’s how we use the apt nettles metaphor.
Step back and ponder the huge spread between manufactured home sales and that of conventional housing. Recall that the Manufactured Housing Institute’s (MHI) President and CEO, Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison promised 500,000 new home shipments. What happened to that public pledge?
The industry’s purported ‘leaders’ were strutting around the Louisville Show on Wednesday, as if they owned the place. Yet, the results are anemic, compared to the rest of mainstream housing. See the related reports, further below.
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“The Illusion of Motion Versus Real-World Challenges” | Manufactured Housing Association Regulatory Reform
Motion – or, more accurately, activity – in and of itself, is not necessarily synonymous with, or equivalent to, realprogress, or, in fact, any progress at all.
Washington, D.C., November 15, 2017 – The Board of Directors of the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) has authorized the public release of a comprehensive internal study by the Association of the past, present and future representation of the post-production sector (PPS) of the federally-regulated manufactured housing industry.