Predictions for 2014 from nationalmortgagenews.com forecast home sales will rise from 5.5 million this year to 5.9 million in 2014, home price appreciation will drop from 11 percent to six percent in 2014, and the 30-year mortgage rate will rise 50 basis points to five percent. The purchase-refinance loan origination split, 60%-40% (average) this year, will reverse and become 40%-60% in 2014, according to Freddie Mac, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts government mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will drop over $500 billion from 2013 to total more than $1 trillion in 2014. Freddie also says multifamily MBS’ will drop from an estimated $28 billion in 2013 to $25 billion in the coming year, but commercial issuance of MBS could increase as much as $125 billion over the $90 billion in 2013. MHProNews has learned that incoming director of the Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA) Mel Watt may influence these trends depending upon the direction he pursues.
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