“The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [BEA],” said the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank to the Daily Business News on MHProNews.
“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model,” per their statement.
Latest forecast: 4.6 percent — August 24, 2018
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.6 percent on August 24, up from 4.3 percent on August 16. That would be an increase from Q2, which was recorded at 4.1 percent by the BEA.
“After yesterday’s releases on new-home sales and costs from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -4.5 percent to -1.1 percent.” Rephrased, the GDP is rising, even though conventional housing sales are becoming an area of concern.
That wrinkle for conventional construction is an opportunity in waiting for savvy, forward looking manufactured housing industry professionals and long-horizon investors.
That also dovetails with recent MHProNews housing reports, see related reports, linked below.
After the “…advance [in] durable manufacturing report from the Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 6.4 percent to 7.5 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.92 percentage points to 2.03 percentage points.”
MHProNews will keep a periodic look at such economic data, especially as it could provide clues of interest to voters as the midterm election approaches. The midterms are now just 70 days out. Voting is on Tuesday, November 6. Check for early voting options in your state. ## (News, analysis and commentary.)
(Third party images, content are provided under fair use guidelines.)
1) To sign up in seconds for our MH Industry leading emailed news updates, click here.
2) To provide a News Tips and/or Commentary, click the link to the left. Please note if comments are on-or-off the record, thank you.