MBA Prognosis: Slow Crawl to Health with Potential Busted Knees

HousingWire reports in the wake of the financial meltdown, the nation gained 4.8 million renters in the last six years while losing 1.7 million owner households, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). In the housing finance sector, the MBA predicts mortgage originations will hit $1.7 trillion in 2012, an increase from $1.4 trillion in 2011, but will fall to $1.3 trillion in 2013 and $1.1 trillion the following year. Additionally, as long as the fiscal cliff is avoided by Congress next year, MBA anticipates GDP (gross domestic product) will rise from 1.6 percent this year to two percent in 2013, and forecasts existing home sales will increase to 4.78 million in 2013, up from 4.6 million this year. Noting the harm a tax increase could foster, MBA chief economist Jay Brinkman tells MHProNews: “We believe that the entire package of tax increases and spending cuts, if left unaltered, would cut 3.5 to 4 percentage points from our growth forecast.” One other contingency: If the finalized Qualified Mortgage Rule (QRM) does not give lenders a safety valve it could have adverse effects. Says Debra Still, new MBA Chairwoman: “The bottom line is if there is conflict in rulemaking and policy, it’s the consumer who will ultimately be negatively impacted and credit will be tighter.”

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