{"id":532,"date":"2011-05-16T18:11:18","date_gmt":"2011-05-16T23:11:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.manufacturedhomepronews.com\/industryvoices\/?p=532"},"modified":"2011-05-17T14:44:13","modified_gmt":"2011-05-17T19:44:13","slug":"the-train-to-oblivion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.manufacturedhomepronews.com\/industryvoices\/the-train-to-oblivion\/","title":{"rendered":"The Train To Oblivion"},"content":{"rendered":"

The MH train comes off the tracks.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

It took me a while in the early 2000s to recognize a sea change had occurred in MH chattel lending.\u00a0 Always chattel lending had been a loser for virtually every lender\u00a0involved in it.\u00a0 But it had powered the MH industry to 20% of all new housing starts, being responsible for up to 80% of all purchase money MH loans up to about 2000.<\/p>\n

What always put\u00a0new lenders coming into the industry\u00a0to sleep is that with a\u00a0growing loan portfolio size, the first 3-4 years of loan\u00a0growth\u00a0mask the true loan performance of the portfolio for the\u00a0entering chattel lender.\u00a0 But\u00a0once the portfolio size stabilizes, one can\u00a0gauge the true portfolio performance going forward. It will show very poor performance.\u00a0 The lender will usually panic, not knowing what to do.\u00a0 The smart ones, not too many of those, will shut down the program right then and take their losses.\u00a0 Most others will muddle on as the employees try to keep their jobs by assuring their bosses that they\u00a0can handle it.\u00a0 They never can.\u00a0 The program will ultimately collapse as things get even worse.\u00a0 “Take your losses now or take bigger ones later.”\u00a0 Some choice.<\/p>\n

Before year 2000, the process went through repeated cycles of this start-hold-collapse for chattel lending by innumerable lenders, starting in the ’50’s.\u00a0 Always new lenders came lured by the “high rates” available in chattel lending.\u00a0 Few seemed to recognize how difficult it was too succeed in MH chattel lending.\u00a0 None wanted to recognize that it didn’t matter how high interest rates were, only how much of them you kept in the end.\u00a0 All\u00a0believed they were\u00a0smarter than the previous failed lenders, and would do a better job than those before them who had failed.\u00a0 Few did.\u00a0 (Boy, did I tire of hearing that crapiola!)<\/p>\n

But in the early 1990’s\u00a0 Wall Street money came to chattel lending.\u00a0 Those were happy days!\u00a0 Money grew on every Tree, especially Green ones.\u00a0 A bevy of retail lenders came from 1991 on, all of whom were going to out-GreenTree GreenTree, the industry giant.\u00a0 All these lenders got easy access to “Wall Street” money, at least for a awhile.\u00a0 The infamous Asset Backed Securities provided liquidity for loans as seldom before seen in chattel lending.\u00a0 Since nothing had changed from the underlying difficulty of surviving chattel lending, few, if any, survived this bout as the industry peaked at 372,800 new home shipments in 1998, and started a descent which has yet to end.<\/p>\n

It took me awhile to recognize this sea change in chattel lending.\u00a0 Few of us foresaw the true depth of the problem.\u00a0 But by 2001-02 I could see that this time it was different.\u00a0 Always in the past new lenders had come to subsidize the industry with the losses they took with unsurvivable chattel lending.\u00a0 In the past 50 years these horrific lender losses had allowed HUDCode factories to flourish, retailers to become millionaires and land lease community owners to keep parks full, even as many shamelessly raised rents.\u00a0 Again, this was all subsidized by terminally flawed chattel lending.\u00a0 It went unrecognized.<\/p>\n

But worse, the Wall\u00a0Street boys do not like taking losses up the butt and started to dissect the reality of MH chattel loan\u00a0performance.\u00a0 What they found was chilling.\u00a0 Losses for the best paper in LLCs were in the 30-35% lifetime range.\u00a0 In the scratch-and-dent category, losses sometimes exceeded 100%. But worse, now that they knew, they blabbed the information to the world.\u00a0 Several Wall Street firms tracked MH chattel loan portfolios closely and put out monthly reports of the carnage.\u00a0 This differed from the past, when lenders, mostly banks, S&Ls\u00a0and credit companies\u00a0took their losses and seemed too embarrassed to tell the whole world of their travails.\u00a0 After all, just a year before they were widely touting how great the chattel MH portfolio was performing and the great contribution they were making to “affordable housing”.\u00a0 That would change soon enough.\u00a0 Little did they know then how great their “contribution” was to be.<\/p>\n

Here is an interesting sidelight:\u00a0 I’ve identified above the recipients of the lender’s losses.\u00a0 Note I did not include the borrower.\u00a0 Yes,\u00a0they got into a home they should not been able to buy, but they hardly ever got to keep the home.\u00a0 Either they couldn’t afford it, or when they tried to resell it, they were unable to, for a variety of reasons.\u00a0 This brought divorces, loss of home, children changing schools and all the other personal tragedy the loss of a home brings.\u00a0 Few apologies here by the industry.\u00a0 “We gave them a chance at home ownership was the industry refrain.”\u00a0 Swell.<\/p>\n

By the time GreenTree\/Conseco collapsed around 2001-2003, the MH chattel world had changed.\u00a0 Forever.\u00a0 Most did not recognized it.\u00a0 It was said to be\u00a0just a periodic pullback.\u00a0 The industry would return, they said,\u00a0it always had.\u00a0 Lenders had lost their nerve.\u00a0 We could get the GSEs to bail us out.\u00a0 We could get “Duty to Serve.”\u00a0 If they won’t do it, then Title I will.\u00a0 To this day we have Pollyanna’s carping this drivel.\u00a0 “Its simply a matter of better sales training.\u00a0 Now subprime is done, it will allow MH to return.\u00a0 (Forget MH chattel lending is the King of Subprime.)\u00a0 We are the only provider of non-subsidized affordable housing.\u00a0 Its simply a matter to fix HUD Subpart I.”\u00a0 In the face of a 90% reduction in volume, can it be that these thoughts still drive an industry?\u00a0 It seems unimaginable.\u00a0 (New to MH and the Subchapter I quest?\u00a0 It is a part of The Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 dealing with recalls, home installation and handling consumer complaints on MH.\u00a0 Like Don Quixote, the industry DC operatives, live to believe that only these DC\u00a0quests are important.)<\/em><\/p>\n

Around 2005-2006 the industry still had enough muscle to have faced that we were operating from a Failed Industry Model.\u00a0 The Roper Survey told us that.\u00a0 All of the reasoning above would not save us.\u00a0 Only an acceptance that drastic measures were needed could have changed it for us.\u00a0 Since we refused to act, “The Market” did it for us.\u00a0 It punished tone-deaf MH business behavior with ruthless abandoned, and is still doing it.\u00a0 The industry still doesn’t listen, though one wanders whether trying to really do something about it would have any impact at this point.\u00a0 Frankly, I doubt it.\u00a0 The high home value depreciation and high loan losses at\u00a0increased loan volume seem impenetrable.\u00a0 We have failed to move against this, even if it is possible to do so, which is daunting at best.<\/p>\n

With Dodd-Frank and SAFE in place, and other regulatory\u00a0devices sure to come, the impediments to an easy, even a\u00a0difficult\u00a0industry response are many.\u00a0 n the face of this we are still worried about Subpart I?\u00a0 Were we to get everything we wanted there, how many more homes would we sell? Heaven help us that this is the response of a terminal ill industry by its leaders.<\/p>\n

As with all struggling businesses, the industry has scurried to try to make up for the existing industry model deficiencies.\u00a0 Don’t have Greenseco-type chattel lending available?\u00a0 Heck, start some buy here-pay here and create your own.\u00a0 Want to keep rents coming in?\u00a0 Buy homes and rent them out.\u00a0 Many came to MH to escape the apartment business, but are now doing a version of apartments far worse than real apartments.\u00a0 Overlook the regulatory constraints, the illiquidity of\u00a0self-lending loans, roll up your selves and go to WORK, boys and girls.\u00a0 Hey, it worked in the past going back to the 1950s.\u00a0 Oh, really, and how did\u00a0they handle Dodd-Frank then, did you say?\u00a0 Or SAFE?\u00a0 Oh..<\/p>\n

Its a changed world and having lost our own lending business here we’ve transacted since 1972, we are impacted as are most others.\u00a0 We are not and will not be alone, as the industry gets closer to 40,000 shipments than to 50,000.\u00a0 At those numbers, I can only assume a whole new tier of businesses are endangered, as most of us scramble to avoid facing the prime business dictum:\u00a0 Get out of a dead business.\u00a0 This is bolstered by my own Prime Dictum:\u00a0 “Never mind what people are saying, watch what is happening”.\u00a0 And what is happening is an open book.\u00a0 All can, or should be able to\u00a0read it.<\/p>\n

I suppose those folks who went to those long-ago industry speeches I gave, rolled their eyes then as I correctly prophesied the point where we now are, can point to their own acumen.\u00a0 Come on Marty, it can’t\u00a0get that bad they said!\u00a0 Sitting there now with 50% LLC vacancies and unsalable self-financed loan portfolios as their response, they can take solace in their prescient course of action.\u00a0 Of course.\u00a0 Frankly, I would much prefer to have been wrong, very wrong.<\/p>\n

So what does this all mean?\u00a0 I hate to say it because I’ve tried to remain in the same industry as you have, but my industry left me.\u00a0 Has it left you?\u00a0 What is the next stop on this train to oblivion?\u00a0 # #<\/p>\n

MARTIN V. (MARTY) LAVIN
\nattorney, consultant, expert witness
\npractice only in factory built housing
\n<\/em>350 Main Street Suite 100
\nBurlington, Vermont 05401-3413
\n802-660-9911, 802-238-7777 cell
\nweb site: www.martylavin.com<\/a>
\nemail mhlmvl@aol.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Editor’s Note:\u00a0 We have honored the author’s request to post his article “as is.”\u00a0 As with all our Industry Voices Guest articles, we invite reader response and dialogue<\/em>, either public (by posting a Discus response below) or private (phone or email).\u00a0 Thanks for reading and getting involved!<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The MH train comes off the tracks. It took me a while in the early 2000s to recognize a sea change had occurred in MH …<\/p>\n

The Train To Oblivion<\/span> Read More \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[492,493,494,286,118,495,496,497,498,499,500,501,502,34,503],"yoast_head":"\nThe Train To Oblivion | Industry Voices<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.manufacturedhomepronews.com\/industryvoices\/the-train-to-oblivion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Train To Oblivion | Industry Voices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The MH train comes off the tracks. 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